NFL DFS Showdown – Week 7 (Thursday) – KC v DEN
Monday night’s showdown between the Chiefs and Broncos is a tough game to get a strong read on. With the Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs struggling a little bit with back-to-back home losses and the Broncos starting to figure things out with two straight victories. So, in Cash game lineups for the single-game slate, I’d recommend sticking with the players who have consistently shown high floors (duh) over the season and pivoting against them in the GPP lineup.
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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
|Kansas City Chiefs||48||52||50||57||64||53||49||67||-3|
- Phillip Lindsay – It feels strange to not recommend a player from the high-flying Chiefs offense in my “King” slot and maybe it will be a mistake, but I like how my lineup comes together using Lindsay. Lindsay has had at least 15 touches in five out of six games this season and you know the Broncos will want to focus on the run in this matchup. The Chiefs run defense ranks 31st DVOA and has allowed 136 rushing yards (31st) and 5.21 YPC (31st) to RBs this season.
- Patrick Mahomes – No, cash game core involving the Chiefs should be without Mahomes. Even in his down weeks, he still puts up over 20 DraftKing points and we all know he has upside. The Broncos pass defense has been good this year (7th DVOA) but defense doesn’t matter too much against Mahomes. The only reason he isn’t in the King slot is that the salary is so high it hampers your ability to make a strong cash game lineup.
- Cortland Sutton – You want consistency in your cash lineup and Sutton has been the model of consistency so far this season with between 7-9 targets in all six games. He has translated those targets into at least 11 DK points in five of six games. He draws a plus individual matchup working against the Chiefs outside DBs.
- Kickers – It worked very well on Monday with both kickers performing well and it should be a successful roster construction again on Thursday night. Harrison Butker will face a Broncos team that has been good at keeping opposing offenses out of the end zone which as resulted in 2.3 field goals per game for opposing kickers. The Chiefs defense has had a similar situation allowing 2.2 field goals per game which should allow Brandon McManus to boom a couple from deep in the thin air of Mile High.
The one player who I think can break the slate is Travis Kelce. Kelce has been relatively quiet this year with just one touchdown, however, with the Chiefs offense struggling a little bit recently, I think they will look to feed Kelce the rock often on Thursday as he has one of the most favorable individual matchups for the Chiefs receiving options. Of course, couple him with Mahomes. Then look to get in on the Chiefs backfield which is a coin toss, my lean is Damien Williams as the younger, less-worked back last week on a short week over LeSean McCoy. Then get in on a couple of Broncos players that have been quieter recently and are pivots from my cash game options with Royce Freeman and Emmanuel Sanders. Round out your lineup with your choice of either team’s kicker, defense, or a one-off secondary player that you think can score.
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