The Players Championship was another Jason Day route, which meant another losing week for most of us. He’s clearly separated himself as the world’s best player, and he should be a favorite every single week he tees it up. I was burned by the MCs by Jordan Spieth, Henrik Stenson, Rickie Fowler, and Kevin Na, to name a few.
But let’s move on to a *cough* less stellar field at the AT&T Byron Nelson. The venue is TPC Four Seasons, which went through a course redesign in 2008 (don’t use any course history prior to that). A very wide range of player type / caliber has won this event, including studs like Jason Day and Adam Scott, and scrubs like Steven Bowditch and Brendan Todd. Weather can play a major factor, and rain is in the forecast today and tomorrow, which could soften the course to favor the bombers. TPC Four Seasons is a 7,166 yard par-70 course, which features only two par 5s. Eagles are very rare here, and par 4 scoring is going to likely determine the winner. The fairways are tight and tree lined, and all players will struggle to keep the ball in the short grass. This is another reason I’m favoring bombers… It’s easier to hit wedges and short irons out of the rough than long to mid irons. The last note about the golf course is that we have Bentgrass greens, not Bermuda which we’ve seen in most recent weeks. There’s some good data out there about putting splits on certain grass types, so I suggest taking a look at Josh Culp’s data at futureoffantasy.com.
Once again, I’m going to focus heavily on recent form and course history, especially given the fact that so many players have ties to the Dallas, TX area. The key stats I’ll look towards this week:
- Birdie or Better %
- Good Drive %
- Driving Distance
- Proximity (150-175 yards)
- Par-4 Scoring Average
- SG: Around the Green
And now on to the picks! I’ve been under the weather all week, so I wasn’t able to finish this part of the write-up, but here are the plays I like this week at all the price points:
Dustin Johnson ($11,900)
Matt Kuchar ($10,500)
Charl Schwartzel ($10,100)
Brooks Koepka ($9,600)
Marc Leishman ($9,500)
Jason Dufner ($9,100)
Ryan Palmer ($8,900)
Danny Lee ($8,600)
Scott Piercy ($8,000)
Keegan Bradley ($7,900)
Graham DeLaet ($7,900)
Jonas Blixt ($7,600)
Lucas Glover ($7,500)
Alex Cejka ($6,600)
Martin Flores ($6,400)
Good luck this week everyone!
