NFL Hot Sheet – Week 13 – 2019 (Thanksgiving)

NFL DFS Picks – Thanksgiving Day

Man, I love Thanksgiving! Nothing better than family, food, and of course, football. Instead of a game-by-game breakdown, I will instead just give you the NFL Hot Sheet matrix followed by my top plays on the slate at each position, along with a few GPP options to consider. And since it is Thanksgiving, I’ll provide the article for free. Enjoy and Happy Thanksgiving!

Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com. Rankings for receivers by position (WR/TE) are based on grades from ProFootballFocus (PFF).

So, let’s get right to the numbers and analysis…

Top Plays

QB

• Drew Brees (NO) – Top QB option on all sites even though he struggled against Falcons a couple of weeks ago. Jameis Winston and the Bucs seemed to figure out the resurgent Falcons defense last week and I expect Brees to do the same.
• Matt Ryan (ATL) – A potential pivot off Brees if you need some salary relief in Cash game, which you might. He threw 5 TD passes at home against the Saints last season and he becomes an even better play if Saints DB Marshon Lattimore misses another game (and Julio Jones plays).
• Dak Prescott (DAL) (GPP option) – Everyone will be on the Cowboys running game which is by far the better way to attack the Bills defense. However, this could be a statement game spot for Dak and the Cowboys passing game after getting shut down by the Patriots (in the elements) and getting called out.

RB

• Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) – There are only two running backs to love on this slate and Elliott is one of them. The Bills run defense ranks 26th DVOA and has allowed 5.23 YPC (30th) to RBs over the last five weeks to go along with 0.8 TDs per game during that stretch.
• Alvin Kamara (NO) – Kamara has 20+ touches the last two weeks. The Falcons run defense has allowed 4.61 YPC (23rd) over the last five weeks. They have started to revert to previous seasons allowing 7.0 receptions (28th) for 52 yards (27th) to pass-catching backs over the last five weeks.
• Tarik Cohen (CHI) (DraftKings only) – Cohen has had 15 “looks” (carries plus targets) in each of the last two games. He has scored at least 12 DraftKings points in three straight games and faces a Lions defense that has yielded 5.2 receptions (16th) for 60 yards (30th), and 0.8 TDs (31st) to pass-catching backs over the last five weeks.
• David Montgomery (CHI) (FanDuel only) – Finding value at RB on FanDuel is a challenge. While Montgomery hasn’t produced much over the last three weeks, he still has had 13+ carries in five straight games and gets the goal-line work, so we are looking for a score against a Lions defense that has allowed 0.9 rushing TDs (28th) per game to RBs this season.
• Devin Singletary (BUF) (GPP option) – Singletary is coming off his best game of the season with 106 yards on 21 carries. He has averaged over 5.0 YPC in each of his last three games and will face a Cowboys run defense that ranks 18th DVOA this year.

WR

• Michael Thomas (NO) – Thomas is a virtual lock for double-digit targets and probably 100+ yards with a strong chance for a score which makes him a Cash game must in a three-game slate.
• Calvin Ridley (ATL) – Ridley has 14 catches for 228 yards and two scores over the last two weeks. With Julio Jones, a little banged up and likely drawing coverage from Marshon Lattimore, if he plays, Ridley should be the beneficiary on the other side of the field with a lower price tag.
• Michael Gallup (DAL) – With Tre’Davious White likely chasing Amari Cooper all over the field, Gallup will need to step up as the primary target for Prescott this week. Gallup has posted some big games at home this season, averaging 5.3 receptions for 95 yards and 0.5 TDs in four home games this season.
• Justin Gage (ATL) – We need some volume value WRs on this slate and Gage has averaged seven targets per game over the last four weeks including 10 targets with eight catches and 76 yards last week.
• Anthony Miller (CHI) – Miller has seen nine and 11 targets respectively over the last two weeks resulting in six grabs each week. With Allen Robinson drawing the attention of Darius Slay and Taylor Gabriel questionable to play, Miller’s target share should be intact again this week.
• Amari Cooper (DAL) (GPP option) – See Dak Prescott writeup

TE

• Jared Cook / Josh Hill (NO) – Tight Ends are hard to come by on the 3-game slate with Cook as the top option and highest price. I’m probably not using him in Cash games but could pivot to him in GPPs. Hill is a cheap flier to consider in Cash games with the hopes of a TD.
• Dawson Knox (BUF) – I prefer Knox over Hill given the choice as Knox has at least two receptions in four straight games and higher TD potential.

D

• Bears (CHI) – The Bears D/ST is a lock on DraftKings where they are severely underpriced. The could be a lock across the board if Jeff Driskel can’t suit up for the Lions on Thursday.

Top Bets

• Bears – 3

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