CFB Sportsbook Consensus Grading Recap — Thursday, September 24, 2026

Colby Dant of the Sports Gambling Podcast had the best night of anyone we graded. He went 2-0 on Liberty at Coastal Carolina — Liberty -2.5 and Over 50.5 — for +1.84 units, and he is now 4-2 (+1.66u) on everything we have graded him on this college football season. The Cappers Picks AI Model matched him at 2-0 for +1.65u, taking Liberty on both the spread and the moneyline, and is a perfect 2-0 with us so far. The SportsLine Model was the sharpest single call on the board: Over 50.5 at -108 on a projection of 55 combined points, good for +0.93u and a season line of 9-4 (+4.21u), the best graded record of any model we track in CFB.

Three more cashed clean: James Holliman of CBS Sports (Liberty ML, +0.76u, 2-0 with us), Peter Dewey of SI (Liberty ML, +0.70u), and Adam Burke of VSiN, who was the only capper to land on the right side of a total that finished one point off the number (Under 52, +0.91u).

The card

Both plays won. The STRONG play, Liberty Flames ML at -135, cashed for +0.74u. The LEAN, Liberty -2.5 at -110, cashed for +0.91u. That is 2-0-0 on the day, +1.65 units, on the one game on the board. No totals play was posted — the expert market split 5-5 on the number, and that turned out to be the right call to pass, because 51 combined points landed between the two most popular numbers and beat both sides of the field.

What actually happened

Coastal Carolina led 17-10 at the half and then did not score again. Liberty reeled off 24 unanswered points in the second half and held the Chanticleers to 47 total yards after the break. The thesis on the card was that Coastal’s run defense — better than 160 yards a game coming in — was the soft spot, and that is exactly where the game was decided: Kam Davis ran for 166 yards on 18 carries (9.2 a pop, his first 100-yard game) behind a Liberty rushing attack that finished with 263 yards.

The other half of it was Coastal’s quarterback. Freshman Deuce Bailey threw his first interception of the season on his second throw of the game and finished 17 of 34 for 213 yards with two touchdowns and two picks — the pre-game note that Coastal “still has not thrown an interception this season” was the one piece of the bear case that evaporated in the first two minutes. Deshawn Purdie was clean for Liberty at 11 of 16 for 216 yards and two scores, including a 58-yard strike to Makai Jackson, who finished with 149 yards and two touchdowns. Ethan Vasko — a former Coastal quarterback — came in during the fourth quarter as part of Liberty’s planned two-quarterback rotation, not because of an injury, and added a rushing touchdown and a touchdown pass.

Nothing unusual decided this one. No injury voided the premise, no backdoor cover, no weather. Liberty was the more complete team and won by 17 on the merits, which is the cleanest kind of result a card can get.

Tier report

Tier	Record	Hit rate	Units
STRONG	1-0-0	100.0%	+0.74u
LEAN	1-0-0	100.0%	+0.91u
FADE-WATCH	none	—	0.00u
Card total	2-0-0	100.0%	+1.65u

Every play is graded at the exact line we posted. FADE-WATCH plays are watches, not staked plays, and never count toward the card record.

Every play, graded

Result	Tier	Market	Pick	Line	Final	Units
✅ WIN	STRONG	Moneyline	Liberty Flames ML	-135 (DraftKings)	Liberty 34-17 Coastal Carolina	+0.74u
✅ WIN	LEAN	Spread	Liberty Flames -2.5	-110 (DraftKings)	Liberty 34-17 Coastal Carolina	+0.91u

Best call: Liberty -2.5 as a LEAN. The market had already traveled four full points from Coastal -1.5 to Liberty -2.5 and 11 of 29 experts still wanted the points at home on a Thursday night. Backing the move anyway was right for the reason it was written — Coastal could not stop the run, and Liberty covered by 14.5 points more than it needed.

Worst beat: Nobody on the consensus card. The beat belongs to the field’s totals players: 51 combined points landed above Under 50.5 and below Over 51.5, so both of the most-backed total positions lost by a single point in opposite directions. Passing the total was worth more than either side of it.

Expert scoreboard — Thursday, September 24

35 experts graded across 44 logged picks on the single Thursday game. The field went 27-17-0 (61.4%) for +6.87 units at flat stakes.

Top 5 of the day

#	Expert	Day	Units	Season with us
1	Sports Gambling Podcast – Colby Dant	2-0-0	+1.84u	4-2 (+1.66u)
2	Cappers Picks AI Model	2-0-0	+1.65u	2-0 (+1.65u)
3	SportsLine Model	1-0-0	+0.93u	9-4 (+4.21u)
4	Sports Chat Place – Nikos Lagouretos	1-0-0	+0.91u	—
4	VSiN – Adam Burke	1-0-0	+0.91u	3-4 (-1.27u)

Eleven more experts finished 1-0-0 at +0.91u on Liberty -2.5: Cappers Picks – Dave B., Doc’s Sports – Tony Sink, and the College Football News staff of Andre Cherry, Clucko the Chicken, Connor O’Gara, E, Jackson Langendorf, Jake Margolick, John Kennedy, Nick Shepkowski and Riley Donald.

Bottom 5 of the day

Expert	Day	Units
SportsGrid Model	1-2-0	-1.07u
Dimers Model	0-1-0	-1.00u
Covers Computer Model	0-1-0	-1.00u
ATS.io Model	0-1-0	-1.00u
Pick Dawgz – Randy Chambers	0-1-0	-1.00u

Seven more finished 0-1-0: WagerTalk, Sports Gambling Podcast – Ryan McIntyre, and College Football News’ Pete Fiutak, Big Game Ben, Andrew Margolick, Doug Millen and Johnny Rosenstein. The models were the story on the wrong side — four of the five worst nights belonged to computer projections that all had Coastal Carolina within a field goal.

Consensus vs. the field: the card hit 100% (2-0); the full field hit 61.4% (27-17). Filtering 44 expert opinions down to the two the consensus actually liked was worth 38.6 points of hit rate on the night.

Season leaders and their weights

Expert	Graded record	Hit rate	Weight
CBS Sports – Chris Hummer	15-6-3	71.4%	1.17
CBS Sports – Brandon Marcello	12-7-3	63.2%	1.09
Winners and Whiners – Al MacMillan	14-10	58.3%	1.06
CBS Sports – Tom Fornelli	11-8-3	57.9%	1.04
SI – Iain MacMillan	21-18	53.8%	1.02

How this changes the card

Be clear about what last night did and did not move. None of the 35 experts who logged a pick on this game is rated yet — an expert stays at a neutral 1.00 weight until we have graded 15 decided picks from them, and every one of last night’s names is still provisional. So no play on this card was weighted up or down by anybody’s record; the consensus read the raw agreement, and the raw agreement was right.

What last night did do is move three cappers closer to qualifying. The SportsLine Model is now at 13 decided picks (9-4, +4.21u) and is two away from carrying real weight — at that hit rate it will qualify on the positive side. Bleacher Nation is at 11 decided (8-3, +2.01u) and heading the same way. The SportsGrid Model is also at 11 decided, but at 3-8 (-5.25u), so when it qualifies it will start pulling weight out of any side it takes rather than adding to it. Last night was a clean illustration: SportsGrid had Coastal on both the spread and the moneyline and was the worst performer on the board.

Among the cappers already rated, Chris Hummer remains the most valuable name we track at 15-6-3 (71.4%) and a 1.17 weight — his agreement is worth meaningfully more in the consensus than a capper we have never seen hit. At the other end, David Cobb and Shehan Jeyarajah both sit at 7-12-3 and a 0.87 weight, so their agreement now counts for less than a neutral opinion.

Season to date

Tier	Spread	Moneyline	Totals	All	Units
STRONG	3-5-0	1-2-0	3-3-0	7-10-0	-3.90u
LEAN	5-5-0	0-2-0	2-3-0	7-10-0	-3.65u
FADE-WATCH	1-1-0	—	—	1-1-0	0.00u
Card total	8-10-0	1-4-0	5-6-0	14-20-0	-7.55u

Six graded CFB dates on the season. STRONG and LEAN are running side by side at 7-10 each, and the split by market says where the damage is: the card is 1-4 on moneylines and 8-10 on spreads. Thursday was the first date this season where both tiers cashed.

Grading notes

Every play is graded at the exact line stored when the card was posted, from the confirmed final of Liberty 34, Coastal Carolina 17 (no overtime), verified against Coastal Carolina Athletics, ESPN and Live 5 News. Liberty ML at -135 pays +0.74 on a 1-unit stake; Liberty -2.5 at -110 pays +0.91. Liberty won by 17, so the spread cleared the number by 14.5 points. Combined 51 points; no pushes, no postponements, no no-action. Expert units are flat 1-unit stakes at each expert’s stored price, with -110 assumed where no price was published.

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