CFB Consensus Weekly Recap — Who’s Hot / Who’s Not — Week of Sep 28–Oct 3, 2026

Fifteen experts and models cleared +2.5 units on the week, and 35 of the 67 who qualified for the board finished in the black. College Football News’ staff-grid entry Big Game Ben led the whole field at 13-6, +5.83 units over 19 graded picks — the best combination of volume and return on our CFB board this week. SportsBettingDime’s Chris Amberley went a perfect 6-0 for +5.42 units, and his colleague Michael Schwartz hit all three of his moneyline plays (+180, +180, +150) for +5.10 units. FOX Sports put three pickers — RJ Young, Laken Litman and Michael Cohen — at 6-2-1, +3.46 units each, and CBS Sports had Chris Hummer, Shehan Jeyarajah and Richard Johnson all go 3-0 for +2.73.

We logged 670 graded expert picks from 109 experts and models across Thursday, Friday and Saturday. 67 of them cleared our three-pick minimum for the weekly board.

🔥 Who was hot — Week of Sep 28–Oct 3

Ranked by net units at flat 1-unit stakes, minimum three graded picks.

#	Expert / Model	Outlet	W-L-P	Hit	Net units	Picks
1	College Football News – Big Game Ben	College Football News	13-6-0	68.4%	+5.83 u	19
2	SportsBettingDime – Chris Amberley	SportsBettingDime	6-0-0	100.0%	+5.42 u	6
3	SportsBettingDime – Michael Schwartz	SportsBettingDime	3-0-0	100.0%	+5.10 u	3
4	College Football News – Jake Margolick	College Football News	12-7-0	63.2%	+3.92 u	19
5	FOX Sports – RJ Young	FOX Sports	6-2-1	75.0%	+3.46 u	9
6	FOX Sports – Laken Litman	FOX Sports	6-2-1	75.0%	+3.46 u	9
7	FOX Sports – Michael Cohen	FOX Sports	6-2-1	75.0%	+3.46 u	9
8	Covers Computer Model	Covers	11-7-0	61.1%	+3.01 u	18
9	FanDuel Research	FanDuel Research	3-0-0	100.0%	+2.80 u	3
10	CBS Sports – Richard Johnson	CBS Sports	3-0-0	100.0%	+2.73 u	3
11	CBS Sports – Shehan Jeyarajah	CBS Sports	3-0-0	100.0%	+2.73 u	3
12	CBS Sports – Chris Hummer	CBS Sports	3-0-0	100.0%	+2.73 u	3

The consensus card

The published consensus card went 10-9-0 for +1.15 units across its 19 staked plays this week (52.6%). By day: 1-2 Thursday, 4-3 Friday, 5-4 Saturday. One additional Saturday row — Alabama at Mississippi State — was tagged FADE-WATCH and tracked rather than staked; it would have won.

The split by confidence tag ran against type: the LEAN plays went 7-5-0 for +2.62 units while the STRONG plays went 3-4-0 for -1.47. We tier every play before kickoff and grade it against the confirmed final, so that inversion is ours to report and ours to act on.

Market check

Moneylines carried the card: 2-0-0, +3.05 units on two plays. Spreads were solidly profitable at 7-5-0, +1.21 units. Totals were the whole of the damage: 1-4-0 for -3.11 units — without the totals the card finishes well clear of water. The weak tier and the weak market overlapped, too: three of the seven STRONG plays were totals, and all three lost.

Against the field: all 670 graded expert picks we logged this week came in at 346-312-12, 52.6%, +5.73 units. The consensus card hit at 52.6% — within a tenth of a point of the field — but returned +0.061 units per play against the field’s +0.009, because the card concentrated into better-priced spots. Agreement level mattered less than price this week: plays with only 2–3 experts agreeing went 3-1 (+2.94u), the 4–6 band went 0-2 (-2.00u), and the heavily-agreed 7+ band went 7-6 for just +0.21u.

Season board

Sources with at least three graded picks that are at or above water for the season, ranked by net units. 52 of the 114 qualified sources are in the black. Pick count is shown so you can weigh a three-pick week against a forty-pick season.

#	Expert / Model	Outlet	W-L-P	Hit	Net units	Picks
1	CBS Sports – Chris Hummer	CBS Sports	27-15-2	64.3%	+9.57 u	44
2	CBS Sports – Tom Fornelli	CBS Sports	25-15-2	62.5%	+7.75 u	42
3	College Football News – Jake Margolick	College Football News	21-13-0	61.8%	+6.11 u	34
4	SportsBettingDime – Michael Schwartz	SportsBettingDime	3-0-0	100.0%	+5.10 u	3
5	FOX Sports – RJ Young	FOX Sports	12-6-1	66.7%	+4.92 u	19
6	FOX Sports – Michael Cohen	FOX Sports	12-6-1	66.7%	+4.92 u	19
7	SportsBettingDime – Chris Amberley	SportsBettingDime	7-2-0	77.8%	+4.32 u	9
8	College Football News – Andre Cherry	College Football News	20-14-0	58.8%	+4.28 u	34
9	College Football News – Big Game Ben	College Football News	20-14-0	58.8%	+4.24 u	34
10	CBS Sports – John Talty	CBS Sports	13-8-0	61.9%	+3.83 u	21
11	SportsLine Model	SportsLine	16-11-1	59.3%	+3.58 u	28
12	Pickswise – Caleb Wilfinger	Pickswise	5-1-0	83.3%	+3.52 u	6
13	Covers – Rob Paul	Covers	27-21-0	56.2%	+3.47 u	48
14	VSiN – Matt Youmans	VSiN	7-3-2	70.0%	+3.37 u	12
15	StatSalt – Kim Smith	StatSalt	9-5-0	64.3%	+3.19 u	14
16	Pickswise – Napier Montgomery	Pickswise	5-3-0	62.5%	+3.12 u	8
17	Pickswise – Ryan Bunnell	Pickswise	4-1-0	80.0%	+3.02 u	5
18	FOX Sports – Laken Litman	FOX Sports	11-7-1	61.1%	+3.01 u	19
19	Pickswise – Joe Williams	Pickswise	4-1-0	80.0%	+2.95 u	5
20	TheSpread – Anthony Rome	TheSpread	8-4-1	66.7%	+2.91 u	13

This is the top of the board, not the whole of it. The complete graded record for every source we track — good weeks and bad, above water and below — is public on the CFB Expert Leaderboard — 2026 Season and in the daily entries under CFB Expert Grading. Season to date the full field sits at 995-913-36, 52.1%, -13.11 units across 1944 graded picks — which is the point of keeping the ledger open.

What we are changing next week

Totals are getting a higher bar before they can carry a STRONG tag. Five total plays produced -3.11 units this week and three of those five were tiered STRONG; meanwhile the 4–6 expert agreement band went 0-2. Both point the same direction, so from Thursday a total needs seven or more agreeing experts and a logged number still available at the captured price to reach STRONG — otherwise it is tiered LEAN at most. We are also adding the agreement band to every graded row so the bucket performance can be read straight off the ledger instead of recomputed weekly.

Odds and lines move; every pick above is graded at the number stored in our ledger at capture. Please bet responsibly — if gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.