CFB Sportsbook Consensus Grading Recap — Saturday, October 24, 2026

Colby Marchio (Covers) went a perfect 7-0 for +6.37u on Saturday, cashing Michigan +7.5, Minnesota +6.5, Virginia Tech +2.5, Syracuse +9.5 and three totals. That runs his season record with us to 20-12 (+7.51u).

Randy Chambers (Sports Chat Place) went 7-2 for +6.09u, hitting both big underdog moneylines of the day: Minnesota at +230 and Wisconsin at +124. He is now 13-8 (+5.55u) on the season. Pete Fiutak (College Football News) went 13-6 for +5.83u on the busiest card in the field (65-55, +4.15u this season), and Iain MacMillan (SI) went 4-0 for +4.84u, also with Minnesota at +230.

We logged 1,006 picks from 141 experts across 44 games. The field went 509-483-14.

The consensus card went 5-5 for -0.43u. STRONG went 5-3 (+1.57u) and LEAN went 0-2 (-2.00u). The FADE-WATCH play on Illinois +10 also won; it is tracked but carries no units. Every play is graded at the line we posted.

What actually happened

Three STRONG plays were never in doubt. Arizona beat Iowa State 39-3 to cover -10 by 26; Arizona scored on a 71-yard pass on the second play and led 25-3 at halftime, and Iowa State benched quarterback Jaylen Raynor at the break. In Ann Arbor, Michigan started Tommy Carr, and Indiana won 13-6 in overtime; the 19 total points stayed far under 42.5, helped by missed Michigan field goals. Oregon was without quarterback Dante Moore for a third straight game, and kicker Gage Hurych missed three field goals; Illinois won 21-10, so the Under 49.5 cashed easily and the FADE-WATCH side (Illinois +10) won outright.

West Virginia +10.5 never needed the points. The Mountaineers won 24-20 at TCU after TCU quarterback Jaden Craig turned it over three times, the last a strip sack that sealed it. Texas Tech at Cincinnati went Over 56.5 with 61 points: Cincinnati forced four turnovers and won 37-24, and Cole Tabb’s 58-yard touchdown run with 6:06 left put the Bearcats up three scores.

The losses were beaten on the merits. Rice played without injured quarterback Jacurri Brown and still nearly won at Florida Atlantic: Gael Ochoa ran for 259 yards and four touchdowns, and FAU needed a punt-return touchdown and a safety off a blocked punt to win 51-49, well short of the 8.5-point cover. Rice’s 55-yard field goal try in the final minute fell just short. Northern Illinois +4 lost 56-21 to Hawaii after five NIU turnovers.

Houston-Utah hurt two plays. Houston led 10-0 at halftime, which ended any chance for the Over 56.5 (final total 34). Houston +6.5 was covering until the final two minutes: with Utah up 14-13, Jackson Bennee strip-sacked Conner Weigman deep in Houston territory and Devon Dampier ran in a touchdown for the 21-13 final. In Austin, Texas led Ole Miss 24-3 at halftime and held on 34-27 when Jelani McDonald intercepted an end-zone pass on the final play, so Ole Miss +3 lost by four.

The card, by tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	Units
STRONG	5-3-0	63%	+1.57u
LEAN	0-2-0	0%	-2.00u
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	5-5-0	50%	-0.43u
FADE-WATCH (tracked, not staked)	1-0-0	100%	+0.00u

Every play is graded at the line we posted.

Every play

Result	Tier	Play	Line	Final	Grading
✅ WIN	STRONG	Iowa State @ Arizona — Arizona -10	-10 (-108) DraftKings	Iowa State 3-39 Arizona	Iowa State 3-39 Arizona → Arizona +36 with -10 = +26 → WIN · +0.93u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Indiana @ Michigan — Under 42.5	42.5 (-105) DraftKings	Indiana 13-6 Michigan (OT)	Indiana 13-6 Michigan (OT) → total 19 vs Under 42.5 → WIN · +0.95u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Houston @ Utah — Over 56.5	56.5 (-115) DraftKings	Houston 13-21 Utah	Houston 13-21 Utah → total 34 vs Over 56.5 → LOSS · -1.00u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Texas Tech @ Cincinnati — Over 56.5	56.5 (-115) DraftKings	Texas Tech 24-37 Cincinnati	Texas Tech 24-37 Cincinnati → total 61 vs Over 56.5 → WIN · +0.87u
✅ WIN	STRONG	West Virginia @ TCU — West Virginia +10.5	+10.5 (-112) DraftKings	West Virginia 24-20 TCU	West Virginia 24-20 TCU → West Virginia +4 with +10.5 = +14.5 → WIN · +0.89u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Rice @ Florida Atlantic — Florida Atlantic -8.5	-8.5 (-108) DraftKings	Rice 49-51 Florida Atlantic	Rice 49-51 Florida Atlantic → Florida Atlantic +2 with -8.5 = -6.5 → LOSS · -1.00u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Oregon @ Illinois — Under 49.5	49.5 (-108) DraftKings	Oregon 10-21 Illinois	Oregon 10-21 Illinois → total 31 vs Under 49.5 → WIN · +0.93u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Hawaii @ Northern Illinois — Northern Illinois +4	+4 (-112) DraftKings	Hawaii 56-21 Northern Illinois	Hawaii 56-21 Northern Illinois → Northern Illinois -35 with +4 = -31 → LOSS · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	LEAN	Houston @ Utah — Houston +6.5	+6.5 (+100) DraftKings	Houston 13-21 Utah	Houston 13-21 Utah → Houston -8 with +6.5 = -1.5 → LOSS · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	LEAN	Ole Miss @ Texas — Ole Miss +3	+3 (-108) DraftKings	Ole Miss 27-34 Texas	Ole Miss 27-34 Texas → Ole Miss -7 with +3 = -4 → LOSS · -1.00u
✅ WIN	FADE-WATCH	Oregon @ Illinois — Illinois +10	+10 (-112) DraftKings	Oregon 10-21 Illinois	Oregon 10-21 Illinois → Illinois +11 with +10 = +21 → WIN · +0.00u

Best call: Indiana-Michigan Under 42.5 (STRONG, 10 of 10 experts, with 77% of DraftKings bets on the Over). Michigan started Tommy Carr, missed field goals after drives deep into Indiana territory, and the game finished 13-6 in overtime: 19 points, 23.5 under the number.

Worst beat: Houston +6.5 (LEAN). Houston was covering with Utah ahead 14-13 inside the final minutes, until a Jackson Bennee strip-sack of Conner Weigman set up Devon Dampier’s touchdown for the 21-13 final. It missed by a point and a half.

Expert scoreboard — Saturday, Oct 24

We graded 1006 picks from 141 experts and models. The field went 509-483 (51.3%) against the consensus card’s 5-5 (50%).

Top of the day	Pick	Record	Units
Covers – Colby Marchio	Michigan +7.5; Minnesota +6.5; Virginia Tech +2.5; Syracuse +9.5; Under 41.5; Under 40.5; Over 46.5	7-0-0	+6.37u
Sports Chat Place – Randy Chambers	Minnesota ML +230; Wisconsin ML +124; UTSA -2.5; Boston College +5.5 (7-2)	7-2-0	+6.09u
College Football News – E	UCF +6.5; Cincinnati +10.5; Illinois +8.5; Wisconsin +2.5 (11-4)	11-4-0	+6.01u
College Football News – Pete Fiutak	Michigan +7.5; Cincinnati +11.5; Illinois +8.5; Wisconsin +2.5 (13-6)	13-6-0	+5.83u
WagerTalk – The Gold Sheet	Arkansas State +2; Wisconsin +3; UCLA -14.5; Oklahoma State -13.5 (11-5)	11-5-0	+4.93u
SI – Iain MacMillan	Minnesota ML +230; UCF +7.5; Utah -6.5; Texas -3	4-0-0	+4.84u

Also on the right side: Sports Chat Place’s Andrew (7-2, +4.37u), CBS Sports’ Tom Fornelli and StatSalt’s David Anicetti (both 11-6-1, +4.01u), FOX Sports’ Chris Fallica (4-2, +3.97u), Pickswise’s Ben Dezell (5-1, +3.89u), DraftKings Network’s Dan Johnson (4-0, +3.70u) and VSiN’s Matt Youmans (5-1, +3.55u). At the bottom of the day were CBS Sports’ Chip Patterson (4-13-1, -9.36u), College Football News’ Riley Donald (3-12, -9.27u) and Predictem’s Joe Jensen (0-6-1, -6.00u). Fourteen picks pushed, all of them Indiana -7 or Michigan +7 in Indiana’s seven-point overtime win.

Season leaders (CFB, graded with us)	Record	Units	Consensus weight
DRatings Model	30-12	+15.30u	1.27
VSiN – Matt Youmans	18-6-2	+10.38u	1.22
CBS Sports – John Talty	43-29-1	+10.13u	1.14
College Football News – Doug Millen	51-37	+9.49u	1.12
Lineups – Thom Cunningham	14-5	+7.85u	1.17
College Football News – Andre Cherry	50-38	+7.58u	1.10
TheSpread – Anthony Rome	33-26-3	+7.54u	1.06

How this changes the card

Colby Marchio (Covers) moves up to 1.12 after his 7-0 day (20-12 season), and VSiN’s Matt Youmans rises to 1.22 (18-6-2). Randy Chambers (Sports Chat Place) passes the 15-decided-pick mark and is now rated at 1.08 (13-8). CBS Sports’ John Talty drops to 1.14 (43-29-1) and College Football News’ Andre Cherry to 1.10 (50-38) after losing days. DRatings Model still has the most weight at 1.27 (30-12). 102 experts are now rated.

Season to date

Tier	All	Spread	Moneyline	Total	Units
STRONG	38-37	18-19	2-3	18-15	-2.86u
LEAN	25-32	15-23	4-3	6-6	-9.19u
FADE-WATCH (not staked)	4-4	4-2	—	0-2	—
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	63-69				-12.05u

Every card, every sport: the full consensus record.

Indiana-Michigan (OT), Syracuse-North Carolina (OT) and BYU-UCF (2OT) include overtime scoring. Expert rows posted without odds are graded at -110. Team abbreviations (FAU, Miami OH, Miami) were matched to the listed matchups. No rows were rejected.

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