CFB Sportsbook Consensus Grading Recap — Saturday, October 31, 2026

Rob Paul (Covers) had the biggest Saturday of the 123 experts we graded: 25-15 for +7.75u across 40 picks. That moves him to 85-79 on the season with us. Pickswise’s Aaron Taylor went 7-1 for +5.87u, hitting Ole Miss -11.5, NC State -9.5, Louisville -23 and Wake Forest -12.5, and VSiN’s Steve Makinen went 11-5 for +5.01u (55-45-4, +5.05u on the season), with wins on Navy +30.5, Texas State +11.5 and the Wisconsin-Iowa Under.

ESPN’s Mark Zinno / Pamela Maldonado went 6-1 (+4.46u), including Syracuse +10 in the upset of SMU. Steve Greenberg (Chicago Sun-Times) went 6-2 (+3.46u) and SI’s Iain MacMillan went 7-3 (+3.43u, 64-51-3 on the season).

The consensus card went 4-8 for -4.24u. STRONG 4-6 (-2.24u), LEAN 0-2 (-2.00u). Totals went 3-2 (+0.89u) and spreads went 1-6 (-5.13u). Every play is graded at the line we posted.

What actually happened

The Unders delivered three times. Iowa shut out Wisconsin 30-0, with three takeaways, a fourth-and-goal stop and no fourth-quarter scoring, so 30 points finished well under 36.5. USC beat Ohio State 30-18: with Julian Sayin out, freshman Luke Fahey made his first start and the Buckeyes settled for a field goal at the USC 1. That landed at 48 against 50.5 even after a late Ohio State touchdown and a USC field goal. Minnesota-Indiana was 16-16 at the end of regulation after dueling 60-yard field goals. Indiana won 23-16 in overtime, and with OT counted the total of 39 stayed under 40.5.

All 8 experts who picked South Carolina +3.5 were right. LaNorris Sellers ran for two touchdowns and threw for three, including scores of 84 and 79 yards, and the Gamecocks led 35-10 after three quarters on the way to a 42-25 win.

The losing spreads were mostly beaten on the merits. Ole Miss outgained Auburn 487-312, went 13 of 16 on third downs and scored 21 unanswered in the fourth quarter (45-15). Utah State’s defense held Colorado State to minus-5 rushing yards in a 17-0 first half and won 31-14. Syracuse beat SMU 30-27 outright on Steve Angeli’s 2-yard touchdown pass with 17 seconds left, after SMU lost the turnover battle 2-0. BYU led Arizona State 27-17 late, then Arizona State’s field goal with 57 seconds left made the final 27-20, a 7-point margin against the 16.5 BYU needed to cover.

Northwestern-Oregon went against two plays. Oregon trailed 23-13 in the third quarter, then Dylan Raiola threw for 336 yards and three touchdowns. Dakorien Moore’s 75-yard touchdown catch made the final 34-26, which beat Northwestern +3.5 and took the total to 60 against 47.5. Iowa State beat Oklahoma State 51-49 on Kyle Konrardy’s 34-yard field goal as time expired, so Oklahoma State -9.5 lost by more than a touchdown and a field goal. In Atlanta, Florida turned it over four times and trailed Georgia 24-0 at halftime. The game finished 27-8, nowhere near the 56.5 the Over needed.

The card, by tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	Units
STRONG	4-6-0	40%	-2.24u
LEAN	0-2-0	0%	-2.00u
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	4-8-0	33%	-4.24u

Every play is graded at the line we posted.

Every play

Result	Tier	Play	Line	Final	Grading
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Arizona State @ BYU — BYU -16.5	-108 DraftKings	Arizona State 20, BYU 27	BYU +7 with -16.5 -> -9.5 · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Auburn @ Ole Miss — Auburn +11.5	-110 DraftKings	Auburn 15, Ole Miss 45	Auburn -30 with +11.5 -> -18.5 · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	SMU @ Syracuse — SMU -9.5	-115 DraftKings	SMU 27, Syracuse 30	SMU -3 with -9.5 -> -12.5 · -1.00u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Ohio State @ USC — Under 50.5	+100 DraftKings	Ohio State 18, USC 30	Ohio State 18 + USC 30 = 48 vs Under 50.5 · +1.00u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Florida @ Georgia — Over 56.5	-108 DraftKings	Florida 8, Georgia 27	Florida 8 + Georgia 27 = 35 vs Over 56.5 · -1.00u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Minnesota @ Indiana — Under 40.5	+100 DraftKings	Minnesota 16, Indiana 23 (OT)	Minnesota 16 + Indiana 23 = 39 vs Under 40.5 · +1.00u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Wisconsin @ Iowa — Under 36.5	-112 DraftKings	Wisconsin 0, Iowa 30	Wisconsin 0 + Iowa 30 = 30 vs Under 36.5 · +0.89u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Northwestern @ Oregon — Under 47.5	-110 DraftKings	Northwestern 26, Oregon 34	Northwestern 26 + Oregon 34 = 60 vs Under 47.5 · -1.00u
✅ WIN	STRONG	South Carolina @ Oklahoma — South Carolina +3.5	-115 DraftKings	South Carolina 42, Oklahoma 25	South Carolina +17 with +3.5 -> +20.5 · +0.87u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Colorado State @ Utah State — Colorado State +7.5	-115 DraftKings	Colorado State 14, Utah State 31	Colorado State -17 with +7.5 -> -9.5 · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	LEAN	Northwestern @ Oregon — Northwestern +3.5	-102 DraftKings	Northwestern 26, Oregon 34	Northwestern -8 with +3.5 -> -4.5 · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	LEAN	Oklahoma State @ Iowa State — Oklahoma State -9.5	-112 DraftKings	Oklahoma State 49, Iowa State 51	Oklahoma State -2 with -9.5 -> -11.5 · -1.00u

Best call: South Carolina +3.5 (STRONG) won by 20.5 points against the number. Every one of the 8 experts on it hit, as Sellers accounted for five touchdowns in a 42-25 road win at Oklahoma.

Worst beat: Under 47.5 in Northwestern-Oregon. The two teams had already scored 33 points by halftime (Northwestern led 20-13). Dylan Raiola finished with 336 yards and three touchdown passes, and a 75-yard touchdown to Dakorien Moore late in the game pushed the total to 60.

Expert scoreboard — Saturday, Oct 31

We graded 921 picks from 123 experts and models. The field went 429-492 (46.6%) against the consensus card’s 4-8 (33%).

Top of the day	Pick	Record	Units
Covers – Rob Paul	40 picks across the slate	25-15-0	+7.75u
Pickswise – Aaron Taylor	Wake Forest -12.5 (+101)	7-1-0	+5.87u
VSiN – Steve Makinen	Navy +30.5	11-5-0	+5.01u
ESPN – Mark Zinno / Pamela Maldonado	Syracuse +10	6-1-0	+4.46u
Chicago Sun-Times – Steve Greenberg	USC +6.5	6-2-0	+3.46u

Also above water: Iain MacMillan (SI) 7-3 (+3.43u), Collin Wilson (Action Network) 4-1 (+3.31u), Ben Dezell (Pickswise) 5-2 (+2.96u), Darren Cooper (Forbes) 5-2 (+2.55u), Pete Fiutak (College Football News) 6-3 and Nikos Lagouretos (Sports Chat Place) 6-3 (+2.46u each). At the bottom of the day: the Covers Computer Model went 15-23 (-9.35u), Chris Hummer (CBS Sports) went 6-13 (-7.54u), Mike Spector (Sportsbook Review) went 14-15 (-7.26u), David Anicetti (StatSalt) went 11-17 (-6.99u) and Richard Johnson (CBS Sports) went 6-12 (-6.54u). The full field went 429-492 (46.6%).

Season leaders (CFB, graded with us)	Record	Units	Consensus weight
DRatings Model	30-12	+15.30u	1.27
VSiN – Matt Youmans	21-8-2	+11.03u	1.22
College Football News – Doug Millen	54-39	+10.22u	1.13
Covers – Colby Marchio	26-16	+8.99u	1.14
Lineups – Thom Cunningham	14-5	+7.85u	1.17
Pickswise – Napier Montgomery	20-13	+7.53u	1.10
SportsLine Model	31-21-1	+7.34u	1.12

How this changes the card

116 CFB experts now have the 15 decided picks needed to carry weight. DRatings Model still has the most weight at 1.27 (30-12) and did not have a pick on this slate. Steve Makinen (VSiN) is at 1.06 (55-45-4) and Iain MacMillan (SI) at 1.08 (64-51-3) after their winning days. Rob Paul (Covers) is at 0.98 (85-79), just under neutral even after going 25-15. The Covers Computer Model fell to 35-52 and carries 0.74, so its picks count for the least. ESPN’s Zinno / Maldonado (6-2), Steve Greenberg (9-3) and Collin Wilson (7-3) remain provisional at 1.00 until they reach 15 decided picks.

Season to date

Tier	All	Spread	Moneyline	Total	Units
STRONG	44-45	20-25	2-3	22-17	-5.24u
LEAN	27-34	15-25	4-3	8-6	-9.35u
FADE-WATCH (not staked)	4-4	4-2	—	0-2	—
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	71-79				-14.59u

Every card, every sport: the full consensus record.

Minnesota-Indiana went to overtime (16-16 at the end of regulation). Overtime counts, so the total graded at 39. Kansas State-Colorado also went to overtime (27-24). 18 expert rows with no sportsbook price were graded at -110. No games were postponed and no rows were rejected.

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