NBA Sportsbook Consensus Grading Recap — Saturday, October 31, 2026

Peter Tran of Sports Chat Place and Randy Chambers of Pick Dawgz both went a perfect 4-0 on Saturday’s seven-game NBA slate. Tran finished +3.64u on Cavaliers -8.5, Timberwolves +11.5, Grizzlies -10.5 and Rockets -4.5 (he is 17-20 with us this season). Chambers was +3.52u with Timberwolves +12.5, Grizzlies -10.5, Rockets -3.5 and the Over 237.5 in Cleveland’s 136-111 win in Milwaukee. That takes him to 26-17, +6.65u on the season.

Kim Smith of StatsAlt hit six of her seven moneylines for 6-1, +2.83u, including Pelicans +148 (11-14 with us this season). Alex MacMillan of Winners and Whiners went 5-2, +2.45u and is now 19-12, +4.72u on the season. Across all 37 experts we logged, the field went 91-53 (63.2%) on 144 picks.

The consensus card went 6-2 for +2.19u. STRONG went 6-1 (+3.19u) and LEAN went 0-1 (-1.00u). The two losses were Hawks -4.5 and the Over 218.5 in Thunder-Rockets. Every play is graded at the line we posted.

What actually happened

Timberwolves +12.5 (STRONG, 12 of 12 experts) covered with 2.5 points to spare in a 121-111 Spurs win. Minnesota had already lost Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo when the card posted, and Rudy Gobert (low back spasms) was also ruled out. Victor Wembanyama scored a season-high 43 points with six blocks. San Antonio trailed by one at halftime and only pulled away after a 10-0 run took them into the fourth up five. Ayo Dosunmu had 27 for Minnesota, and the Wolves never let the margin reach the number.

Rockets -2.5 (STRONG) was decided by the second quarter. Houston opened it on an 18-4 run to lead 55-34 and won 119-98, making 18 of 41 threes. Jabari Smith Jr. scored 30 and Marcus Smart added 24 on 7-of-10 from deep. Alperen Sengun returned with 16 points, nine rebounds and 10 assists, even with Fred VanVleet and Reed Sheppard sitting. Oklahoma City was without Chet Holmgren, Alex Caruso, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace and two more rotation players. The same game sank the LEAN Over 218.5 at 217. The Thunder made just 10 of 32 threes and scored only 98, so the Over lost on the merits of a short-handed offense that could not carry its half.

Hawks -4.5 (STRONG) lost 121-99, and nothing unusual decided it. New Orleans led 35-18 after one quarter, scoring 16 points off eight Atlanta turnovers. The Hawks shot 8 of 46 from three and never got within 10 again. Saddiq Bey scored a season-high 25 off the bench. The consensus was beaten on the merits.

The Charlotte game cashed both STRONG plays, 76ers ML -120 and Under 215.5, but it went to the wire. Philadelphia was on the second night of a back-to-back without Joel Embiid and LeBron James, and trailed by six going into the fourth. Tyrese Maxey scored 38, and VJ Edgecombe’s step-back three with 35.4 seconds left sealed a 109-104 win. That put the total at 213, under by 2.5.

Cavaliers ML -360 was never in doubt. Cleveland won the second quarter 48-21, led by 36 early in the fourth and won 136-111 behind Evan Mobley (27) and Jarrett Allen (25 and 11). Trail Blazers ML -285 was settled by a 17-0 first-quarter run. Utah committed 20 turnovers and Portland won 112-90, with Deni Avdija scoring 24 and Damian Lillard 22.

The card, by tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	Units
STRONG	6-1-0	86%	+3.19u
LEAN	0-1-0	0%	-1.00u
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	6-2-0	75%	+2.19u

Every play is graded at the line we posted.

Every play

Result	Tier	Play	Line	Final	Grading
✅ WIN	STRONG	Timberwolves @ Spurs — Timberwolves +12.5 (-115)	Timberwolves +12.5 (-115) DraftKings	Timberwolves 111-121 Spurs	Timberwolves 111 + 12.5 = 123.5 vs Spurs 121 → covers +12.5 ✅ · +0.87u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Thunder @ Rockets — Rockets -2.5 (-105)	Rockets -2.5 (-105) DraftKings	Thunder 98-119 Rockets	Rockets 119 – 2.5 = 116.5 vs Thunder 98 → Rockets by 21; cover -2.5 ✅ · +0.95u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Hawks @ Pelicans — Hawks -4.5 (-105)	Hawks -4.5 (-105) DraftKings	Hawks 99-121 Pelicans	Hawks 99 – 4.5 = 94.5 vs Pelicans 121 → Hawks lost by 22; no cover ❌ · -1.00u
✅ WIN	STRONG	76ers @ Hornets — 76ers ML -120	76ers ML -120 DraftKings	76ers 109-104 Hornets	76ers win 109-104 → ML -120 cashes ✅ · +0.83u
✅ WIN	STRONG	76ers @ Hornets — Under 215.5 (-110)	Under 215.5 (-110) DraftKings	76ers 109-104 Hornets	109 + 104 = 213; Under 215.5 cashes ✅ · +0.91u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Cavaliers @ Bucks — Cavaliers ML -360	Cavaliers ML -360 DraftKings	Cavaliers 136-111 Bucks	Cavaliers win 136-111 → ML -360 cashes ✅ · +0.28u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Trail Blazers @ Jazz — Trail Blazers ML -285	Trail Blazers ML -285 DraftKings	Trail Blazers 112-90 Jazz	Trail Blazers win 112-90 → ML -285 cashes ✅ · +0.35u
❌ LOSS	LEAN	Thunder @ Rockets — Over 218.5 (-110)	Over 218.5 (-110) DraftKings	Thunder 98-119 Rockets	98 + 119 = 217; Over 218.5 misses by 1.5 ❌ · -1.00u

Best call: Timberwolves +12.5 (STRONG, all 12 experts on it). Minnesota was missing Edwards, DiVincenzo and a late-scratched Gobert, and Wembanyama scored 43. The Wolves still kept a 121-111 loss inside the number with 2.5 points to spare.

Worst beat: Over 218.5 in Thunder-Rockets (LEAN). The game landed on 217, 1.5 short, because Oklahoma City shot 10 of 32 from three and managed only 98 points while Houston ran away with it.

Expert scoreboard — Saturday, Oct 31

We graded 144 picks from 37 experts and models. The field went 91-53 (63.2%) against the consensus card’s 6-2 (75%).

Top of the day	Pick	Record	Units
Sports Chat Place – Peter Tran	Cavaliers -8.5; Timberwolves +11.5; Grizzlies -10.5; Rockets -4.5	4-0-0	+3.64u
Pick Dawgz – Randy Chambers	Timberwolves +12.5; Grizzlies -10.5; Rockets -3.5; Over 237.5 (CLE-MIL)	4-0-0	+3.52u
StatsAlt – Kim Smith	Six of seven moneylines incl. Pelicans +148	6-1-0	+2.83u
Winners and Whiners – Alex MacMillan	Blazers -6.5; 76ers -1.5; Cavaliers -8.5; Timberwolves +12.5; Grizzlies -10.5	5-2-0	+2.45u
Scores24 – Alexander Mihalchenko	Rockets -3.5; Over 224 (MIN-SAS); Cavaliers -8.5; Under 218.5 (OKC-HOU)	6-2-0	+2.23u

Others on the right side included Dimers Model (6-3, +2.19u), StatsAlt’s David Anicetti (5-1, +1.93u), and three experts at 2-0: Ben Dezell (Pickswise), Tamberlyn Richardson (Cappers Picks) and Tony Sink (Doc’s Sports). At the bottom, Marcus Reeds (ScoresAndStats) went 0-5, -5.00u, all on underdog moneylines. Filip Tomic (Pickswise) went 0-3, and Doc’s Sports’ Guy Bruhn and Josh Schonwald each went 0-2.

Season leaders (NBA, graded with us)	Record	Units	Consensus weight
Picks and Parlays – Kim Smith	69-45	+12.34u	1.20
Cappers Picks – Tamberlyn Richardson	15-5	+8.65u	1.19
Sports Chat Place – Randy Chambers	19-10	+7.31u	1.15
Pick Dawgz – Randy Chambers	26-17	+6.65u	1.12
WagerTalk – Kyle Kargel	25-16	+6.33u	1.12
Doc's Sports – Tony Sink	18-11	+5.42u	1.11
SportsLine Model	9-3	+5.19u	1.00 (12 of 15 decided)

How this changes the card

Tamberlyn Richardson (Cappers Picks) is up to a 1.19 weight at 15-5, second only to Kim Smith of Picks and Parlays (1.20, 69-45). Randy Chambers (Pick Dawgz) rose from 1.05 to 1.12 at 26-17, and David Anicetti (StatsAlt) from 1.04 to 1.10 at 26-18. Marcus Reeds (ScoresAndStats) fell from 0.81 to 0.72 at 7-20, and Josh Schonwald (Doc’s Sports) slipped from 1.15 to 1.10 at 14-8. Nick Crain (TheLines) is one decided pick short of the 15 needed to qualify.

Season to date

Tier	All	Spread	Moneyline	Total	Units
STRONG	40-25	14-11	7-2	19-12	+8.86u
LEAN	11-13	8-8	0-2	3-3	-3.17u
FADE-WATCH (not staked)	1-3	1-2	0-1	—	—
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	51-38				+5.69u

Every card, every sport: the full consensus record.

All seven games were final in regulation. Expert rows with no posted price are graded at -110. Two alternate-line rows are graded at their stated prices: Scores24’s Timberwolves +8.5 at +149 (lost by 1.5) and Over 224 at -133. All 144 logged picks were graded; none were rejected.

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