NBA Sportsbook Consensus Grading Recap — Wednesday, November 4, 2026

Kim Smith (StatsAlt) led Wednesday’s NBA field at 9-4 for +4.19u, cashing Mavericks +12.5, Thunder -2.5 and the Hawks, Lakers, Trail Blazers, Pelicans and Celtics on the moneyline; he is 30-25 with us this season. David Anicetti (Winners and Whiners) went 7-3 for +3.37u behind the Knicks, Lakers and Trail Blazers moneylines and the Hawks-Wizards Under, and Freddy Diaz (HispanosNBA) went 7-2 for +3.33u, including the Heat moneyline at 2.05 in the Clippers overtime game — that run takes him to 12-3 (+5.79u) with us.

Two more experts ran the table: Tony Sink (Doc’s Sports) was 3-0 (+2.73u) on Timberwolves +8.5, Knicks -12.5 and Trail Blazers -2.5 and is now 24-14 (+7.88u) on the season, and Tamberlyn Richardson (Cappers Picks) was 3-0 (+2.73u) with Nuggets -5.5, Timberwolves +7.5 and 76ers +2.5, moving to 19-6 (+11.29u), the best hit rate among rated NBA experts. We graded 266 picks from 51 experts across all 14 games; the field finished 138-126-2.

The consensus card went 5-3 for +1.56u. All eight plays were tiered STRONG: 5-3 (+1.56u) — spreads 3-2 (+0.75u), totals 2-1 (+0.81u). The three losses were Pistons -2.5, Grizzlies -6.5 and Hornets-Nets Under 212.5. Every play is graded at the line we posted.

What actually happened

The best result on the card came in San Antonio, where 8 of 9 experts took Mavericks +11.5. Victor Wembanyama scored 52 with 24 rebounds and 8 blocks, but Dallas came back from 19 down — Naji Marshall scored 10 in the fourth — and tied it before Wembanyama’s final free throw won it 112-111. Kyrie Irving’s fading jumper at the buzzer missed, and the cover was never in doubt late.

Portland made the STRONG play on Trail Blazers -3.5 easy by outscoring Phoenix 43-25 in the second quarter for a 72-59 halftime lead, then playing the second half even; Damian Lillard (25), Donovan Clingan (24) and Deni Avdija (21 points, 12 assists) did the work in a 132-119 win. In Oklahoma City, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 42 and the Thunder led 115-102 with 1:47 left before Donovan Mitchell hit three straight 3s to make it 117-111; the 124-116 final still covered -3.5 by 4.5.

Both Unders in the early window had different stories. Philadelphia and Detroit finished at 218, inside 219.5, after a 56-42 first half. In Washington, Atlanta made 19 threes and still the game landed at 225, well under 232.5, with the Hawks playing without Jalen Johnson for a second straight game.

The losses: in Detroit the 76ers led by as many as 17 behind Jaylen Brown’s 30 points, and Brown’s block on a Cade Cunningham 3 with under 40 seconds left sealed a 112-106 Philadelphia win — Jalen Duren’s absence was already priced into the card, so this was the consensus beaten on the merits. In Memphis the premise of a depleted road team did not hold: Indiana had 12 players available, with Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam, Aaron Nesmith, Ivica Zubac and Obi Toppin back, and Nesmith’s corner 3 through contact in the final seconds finished a 107-103 Pacers win. In Brooklyn, the Nets erased a seven-point halftime deficit with an 11-0 third-quarter run and Michael Porter Jr. hit three fourth-quarter threes in a 114-104 win; the 218 total went over 212.5 even though Charlotte lost Kon Knueppel to left leg soreness in the first quarter.

The card, by tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	Units
STRONG	5-3-0	63%	+1.56u
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	5-3-0	63%	+1.56u

Every play is graded at the line we posted.

Every play

Result	Tier	Play	Line	Final	Grading
❌ LOSS	STRONG	76ers @ Pistons — Pistons -2.5	-114 DraftKings	76ers 112-106 Pistons	76ers 112, Pistons 106 → Pistons lost by 6; 106 − 2.5 = 103.5 vs 112, misses -2.5 ❌ · -1.00u
✅ WIN	STRONG	76ers @ Pistons — Under 219.5	-112 DraftKings	76ers 112-106 Pistons	112 + 106 = 218, Under 219.5 cashes ✅ · +0.89u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Hawks @ Wizards — Under 232.5	-109 DraftKings	Hawks 120-105 Wizards	120 + 105 = 225, Under 232.5 cashes ✅ · +0.92u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Hornets @ Nets — Under 212.5	-107 DraftKings	Hornets 104-114 Nets	104 + 114 = 218, Under 212.5 misses ❌ · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Pacers @ Grizzlies — Grizzlies -6.5	-113 DraftKings	Pacers 107-103 Grizzlies	Pacers 107, Grizzlies 103 → Grizzlies lost by 4, misses -6.5 ❌ · -1.00u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Cavaliers @ Thunder — Thunder -3.5	-107 DraftKings	Cavaliers 116-124 Thunder	Thunder 124, Cavaliers 116 → Thunder by 8, covers -3.5 ✅ · +0.93u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Trail Blazers @ Suns — Trail Blazers -3.5	-105 DraftKings	Trail Blazers 132-119 Suns	Trail Blazers 132, Suns 119 → Trail Blazers by 13, covers -3.5 ✅ · +0.95u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Mavericks @ Spurs — Mavericks +11.5	-115 DraftKings	Mavericks 111-112 Spurs	Spurs 112, Mavericks 111 → Mavericks lost by 1, covers +11.5 ✅ · +0.87u

Best call: Mavericks +11.5 (8 of 9 experts) — Dallas erased a 19-point deficit and lost 112-111 only on Victor Wembanyama’s last free throw after his 52-point night, covering by 10.5.

Worst beat: Grizzlies -6.5 (7 of 8 experts) — the card expected a thin Pacers rotation, but Indiana got Nembhard, Siakam, Nesmith, Zubac and Toppin back and won outright 107-103 on Aaron Nesmith’s late corner 3.

Expert scoreboard — Wednesday, Nov 4

We graded 266 picks from 51 experts and models. The field went 138-126 (52.3%) against the consensus card’s 5-3 (63%).

Top of the day	Pick	Record	Units
StatsAlt – Kim Smith	Mavericks +12.5; Thunder -2.5; 5 ML winners	9-4-0	+4.19u
Winners and Whiners – David Anicetti	Hawks-Wizards Under 233; Knicks ML	7-3-0	+3.37u
HispanosNBA – Freddy Diaz	Heat ML 2.05; Thunder ML 1.55	7-2-0	+3.33u
Doc's Sports – Tony Sink	Timberwolves +8.5; Knicks -12.5; Trail Blazers -2.5	3-0-0	+2.73u
Cappers Picks – Tamberlyn Richardson	Nuggets -5.5; Timberwolves +7.5; 76ers +2.5	3-0-0	+2.73u

Also on the right side: Peter Tran (Sports Chat Place) 4-1 (+2.64u), Randy Chambers (Pick Dawgz) 5-2 (+2.57u), Guy Bruhn (Doc’s Sports) 2-0 (+1.82u), Brandon Sachs (Pickswise) 2-0 (+1.81u), Cameron Ross (Picks and Parlays) 4-2 (+1.64u), Eddie Kline (Picks and Parlays) 5-3 (+1.55u) and the iHeart Model 16-11 (+1.39u). Marcus Reeds (ScoresAndStats) hit 2.79u on the Timberwolves moneyline and 2.12u on the Pacers but finished 4-9 (-2.56u). The bottom of the day: Peter Dewey (Sports Illustrated) 2-5 (-3.33u), Filip Tomic (Pickswise) 0-3 (-3.00u), CBS Sports and Joe Jensen (Predictem) each 4-6 (-2.36u).

Season leaders (NBA, graded with us)	Record	Units	Consensus weight
Picks and Parlays – Kim Smith	73-48	+12.59u	1.20
Cappers Picks – Tamberlyn Richardson	19-6	+11.29u	1.24
Doc's Sports – Tony Sink	24-14	+7.88u	1.14
WagerTalk – Kyle Kargel	27-16	+7.76u	1.15
SportsLine Model	11-3	+7.01u	1.00 (14 of 15 decided)
Pick Dawgz – Randy Chambers	35-25	+6.86u	1.11
Doc's Sports – Guy Bruhn	21-13	+6.11u	1.12

How this changes the card

44 NBA experts now have the 15 decided picks needed to carry weight, up from 42. Freddy Diaz (HispanosNBA) crossed the line at 12-3 and enters at 1.18; Tamberlyn Richardson (Cappers Picks) rose from 1.18 to 1.24 at 19-6, the highest weight in the consensus, and Tony Sink (Doc’s Sports) moved from 1.10 to 1.14 at 24-14. On the other side, Peter Dewey (Sports Illustrated) slipped from 1.06 to 1.00 at 23-21 and Randy Chambers’ Sports Chat Place record fell from 1.05 to 1.01 at 25-22. These weights apply to future cards; they did not change last night’s plays.

Season to date

Tier	All	Spread	Moneyline	Total	Units
STRONG	53-36	22-16	8-3	23-17	+9.31u
LEAN	15-14	11-9	0-2	4-3	-0.55u
FADE-WATCH (not staked)	2-3	2-2	0-1	—	—
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	68-50				+8.76u

Every card, every sport: the full consensus record.

Two expert picks pushed: Under 218 in 76ers-Pistons (TheRx – Jordan Harlow and TheSpread.com – Anthony Rome), with the game landing exactly on 218. Expert picks published without a price are graded at -110; decimal odds are converted at the decimal price minus one. Jazz-Pelicans (120-113) and Heat-Clippers (117-116) went to overtime and are graded on the overtime finals; neither was on the card.

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