NFL Sportsbook Consensus Grading Recap — Thursday, November 5, 2026

Kim Smith (Picks and Parlays) was the only expert to go 2-0 on both sides of Jaguars-Ravens, taking Jacksonville -8.5 and the Under 43.5 — and the game landed at 43, one half-point inside her number. That’s +1.82u on the night and lifts her season record with us to 33-30-1.

Iain MacMillan (Sports Illustrated) also went 2-0 (+1.10u) with Jaguars -8.5 and the Jaguars moneyline, moving him to 101-82-3 on the season — the largest graded sample in our NFL ledger. Mike Spector (Sportsbook Review) cashed Jaguars -8.5 at -105 (+0.95u) and is now 26-14, +9.14u, and Jordan Dajani (CBS Sports) cashed Jaguars -10 to stay at the top of our NFL ratings at 31-15, +13.21u. Jason Green (TheLines) matched Spector’s +0.95u on Jaguars -10 at -105.

Across the field, 45 of 61 graded expert picks won (45-16), with 50 experts logged on the one Thursday game.

The consensus card went 2-1 for +0.07u. STRONG 1-0 (+0.89u): Jaguars -10 covered by 13. LEAN 1-1 (-0.82u): the Jaguars moneyline at -550 won (+0.18u) and the Under 39.5 lost (-1.00u) with the game finishing at 43. Every play is graded at the line we posted.

What actually happened

Jacksonville won 33-10 in Baltimore, and the quarterback picture that drove the whole card played out as described. Undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano, making his first NFL start with Lamar Jackson on injured reserve and Tyler Huntley out for the season, finished 10 of 18 for 60 yards with two interceptions (ESPN box score). Trevor Lawrence went 16 of 26 for 242 yards, hitting Parker Washington for a 50-yard touchdown in the second quarter after Bhayshul Tuten’s 1-yard score opened the game.

The spread was never in doubt in the second half. Cam Little kicked four field goals (36, 45, 47 and 33 yards), and Chris Rodriguez Jr.’s 2-yard run with 7:26 left made it 33-3 — a 30-point margin against a 10-point number. Derrick Henry had 44 yards on nine carries in the first quarter and passed LaDainian Tomlinson for seventh on the NFL’s career rushing list (CBS Sports), but Baltimore’s only touchdown came late.

That late touchdown decided the total. At 33-3 with 7:26 to play the game sat at 36, under every Under number on the board. Eleven seconds of game clock later, Justice Hill broke a 65-yard touchdown run at 7:15, and the extra point made it 43 — past 39.5, 40.5 and 42.5, and a half-point short of 43.5. The Under’s premise held — Baltimore’s offense was held to three points for more than 52 minutes — but Jacksonville’s own 33 left no cushion, and one long run in a decided game took it over.

The card, by tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	Units
STRONG	1-0-0	100%	+0.89u
LEAN	1-1-0	50%	-0.82u
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	2-1-0	67%	+0.07u

Every play is graded at the line we posted.

Every play

Result	Tier	Play	Line	Final	Grading
✅ WIN	STRONG	Jaguars @ Ravens — Jaguars -10	-10 (-112) DraftKings	Jaguars 33-10 Ravens	Jaguars by 23; 23 – 10 = +13 → covers -10 · +0.89u
❌ LOSS	LEAN	Jaguars @ Ravens — Under 39.5	39.5 (-110) DraftKings	Jaguars 33-10 Ravens	33 + 10 = 43 > 39.5 → Under loses · -1.00u
✅ WIN	LEAN	Jaguars @ Ravens — Jaguars ML	-550 DraftKings	Jaguars 33-10 Ravens	Jaguars won outright → ML wins (100/550 = +0.18u) · +0.18u

Best call: Jaguars -10 (STRONG, 38 of 44 experts): the consensus read was that a rookie third-string quarterback could not keep pace, and Joe Fagnano threw for 60 yards with two interceptions while Jacksonville built a 33-3 lead — a 13-point cover.

Worst beat: Under 39.5 (LEAN): the game sat at 36 with 7:15 left at 33-3, then Justice Hill’s 65-yard touchdown run made it 43. Baltimore’s offense was held to three points for more than three quarters, but Jacksonville scored 33 on its own.

Expert scoreboard — Thursday, Nov 5

We graded 61 picks from 50 experts and models. The field went 45-16 (73.8%) against the consensus card’s 2-1 (67%).

Top of the day	Pick	Record	Units
Picks and Parlays – Kim Smith	Jaguars -8.5; Under 43.5	2-0-0	+1.82u
Sports Illustrated – Iain MacMillan	Jaguars -8.5; Jaguars ML -535	2-0-0	+1.10u
Sportsbook Review – Mike Spector	Jaguars -8.5 (-105)	1-0-0	+0.95u
TheLines – Jason Green	Jaguars -10 (-105)	1-0-0	+0.95u
CBS Sports – Jordan Dajani	Jaguars -10	1-0-0	+0.91u

Every Jaguars spread pick in the ledger cashed — 38 experts from -7.5 to -10 — including Teddy Covers (WagerTalk), Randy Chambers (Pickdawgz), Joe Osborne (Covers), David Racey (Sports Chat Place) and all four Athlon Sports writers. On the total, the SportsLine Model (Over 40), GT Tillar (Cappers Picks, Over 40.5) and Scott Miller (SportsGambler, Over 40.5 at -108) were on the right side. The bottom of the day: Zachary Cohen (VSiN) went 0-2 (-2.00u) on Ravens +10.5 and the Ravens moneyline, and The Gold Sheet (WagerTalk) went 1-2 (-1.82u); Ravens takers Stuckey (Action Network), Gagnon (Bleacher Report), Wade Reeser (Bettors Insider) and Bryan Derr (Fantasy Alarm) each lost 1.00u.

Season leaders (NFL, graded with us)	Record	Units	Consensus weight
CBS Sports – Jordan Dajani	31-15	+13.21u	1.23
Sportsbook Review – Mike Spector	26-14	+9.14u	1.18
SportsLine Model	24-14-3	+8.03u	1.14
Pickdawgz – David Racey	14-5	+7.83u	1.17
VSiN – Wes Reynolds	28-17	+7.32u	1.15
Lineups – Richard Janvrin	8-1	+6.28u	1.00 (9 of 15 decided)
SI – Manzano	39-21-1	+5.34u	1.22

How this changes the card

95 NFL experts now have the 15 decided picks needed to carry weight in the consensus. Jordan Dajani (CBS Sports, 31-15) leads at 1.23, followed by Mike Spector (Sportsbook Review, 26-14) at 1.18 and the SportsLine Model (24-14-3) at 1.14; Joe Osborne (Covers) and David Racey (Sports Chat Place) both sit at 1.11 after cashing Thursday at 13-7. Kim Smith’s 2-0 night lifts her to 33-30-1, which still rates a neutral 1.00. At the low end, Ryan Cobbett (Doc’s Sports) carries 0.92 after a 1-1 night, while Bleacher Report’s O’Donnell (0.78) and Athlon Sports’ Easterling (0.76) cashed but remain below neutral.

Season to date

Tier	All	Spread	Moneyline	Total	Units
STRONG	31-42-1	7-14	8-5	16-23-1	-15.60u
LEAN	16-24	7-18	3-1	6-5	-9.88u
FADE-WATCH (not staked)	4-2	3-2	—	1-0	—
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	47-66-1				-25.48u

Every card, every sport: the full consensus record.

Final score confirmed in regulation from ESPN’s box score. Expert rows without posted odds are graded at -110. The ledger had 61 rows from 50 experts; none were rejected.

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