CFB Sportsbook Consensus Grading Recap — Saturday, November 7, 2026

Chris Amberley (SportsBettingDime) didn’t lose a pick on Saturday: 6-0-1, +5.44u. He had Utah, Texas, Oregon +8, Alabama +6, Tennessee and Georgia, with only a push on Notre Dame -7. That moves him to 23-9-1 (+11.83u) with us this season, second in CFB units behind only the DRatings Model.

Ethan Stone (Saturday Down South) went a perfect 5-0, +4.55u — Utah, Alabama +6, Tennessee, Miami +7.5 and Georgia — and is now 12-3 (+7.92u) on the season. David Racey (Sports Chat Place) went 7-2 (+4.37u, 18-15 season), Steve Makinen (VSiN) went 12-7 (+3.92u, 68-54-4 season), and Pete Fiutak (College Football News) went 6-2 (+3.46u, 81-68 season). The biggest volume day belonged to the Covers Computer Model, 19-11 for +6.29u.

The consensus card went 4-6-1 for -2.33u. STRONG 2-6 (-4.13u), LEAN 2-0-1 (+1.80u). Every play is graded at the line we posted.

What actually happened

The three LEAN plays all held up. Georgia -3.5 was never in doubt: Gunner Stockton accounted for five touchdowns, Talyn Taylor caught three of them, and Georgia led 28-0 at halftime on the way to 42-7 at Ole Miss. Tennessee -6 came the same way in the second half — the Vols led only 10-6 at the break, then turned Kentucky turnovers (an end-zone interception and a strip-sack) into 24 unanswered points for a 34-6 win, which also cashed the STRONG Under 49.5 with 40 total points. Miami +7 landed exactly on the number: Notre Dame led 31-17, Miami cut it to 31-24 with 9:53 left, and its final drive ended in a fumble.

The STRONG spreads were beaten on the merits for the most part. In Columbus, the Under 45.5 premise of two conservative quarterbacks did not survive Oregon: after falling behind 14-0, the Ducks scored 38 straight, helped by a fake punt and an interception of Ohio State backup Luke Fahey, and the game was over the number well before two late Ohio State touchdowns made it 41-28. UCLA’s backup quarterback was the heart of the Minnesota +4 case, and Ty Dieffenbach answered it with two 75-yard touchdown passes to Aiden Mizell in a 17-17 fourth quarter on the way to 34-20. North Carolina turned three UConn turnovers into 21 points, including Timir Hickman-Collins’ 62-yard interception return, in a 38-21 win that UConn +7.5 never threatened.

Three others were closer. Missouri +2.5 led Texas 20-13 in the fourth quarter until Arch Manning fumbled downfield and Texas recovered — the call stood on replay — and Texas scored the last 21 points. Washington -2.5 trailed Penn State 28-6 at halftime, rallied behind Demond Williams Jr. to 28-25 with 7:40 left, but Penn State ran out the clock with a 14-play drive. Syracuse +1.5 lost 18-13 to a Clemson team missing four offensive starters after a loose Steve Angeli pass was returned for a Clemson touchdown in the third quarter. South Carolina -7 was the STRONG winner, and it needed the finish: the Gamecocks led only 10-9 until LaNorris Sellers, playing through an ankle injury, broke a 41-yard touchdown run in the final two minutes for a 17-9 cover.

The card, by tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	Units
STRONG	2-6-0	25%	-4.13u
LEAN	2-0-1	100%	+1.80u
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	4-6-1	40%	-2.33u

Every play is graded at the line we posted.

Every play

Result	Tier	Play	Line	Final	Grading
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Texas @ Missouri — Missouri +2.5	-105 DraftKings	Texas 34-20 Missouri	Missouri 20-34 (margin -14) +2.5 → -11.5 → LOSS · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	UCLA @ Minnesota — Minnesota +4	-110 DraftKings	UCLA 34-20 Minnesota	Minnesota 20-34 (margin -14) +4 → -10 → LOSS · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Oregon @ Ohio State — Under 45.5	-115 DraftKings	Oregon 41-28 Ohio State	Oregon 41 + Ohio State 28 = 69 vs Under 45.5 → LOSS · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	North Carolina @ UConn — UConn +7.5	-108 DraftKings	North Carolina 38-21 UConn	UConn 21-38 (margin -17) +7.5 → -9.5 → LOSS · -1.00u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Kentucky @ Tennessee — Under 49.5	-112 DraftKings	Tennessee 34-6 Kentucky	Kentucky 6 + Tennessee 34 = 40 vs Under 49.5 → WIN · +0.89u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Penn State @ Washington — Washington -2.5	-105 DraftKings	Penn State 28-25 Washington	Washington 25-28 (margin -3) -2.5 → -5.5 → LOSS · -1.00u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Texas A&M @ South Carolina — South Carolina -7	-102 DraftKings	South Carolina 17-9 Texas A&M	South Carolina 17-9 (margin +8) -7 → +1 → WIN · +0.98u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Clemson @ Syracuse — Syracuse +1.5	-105 DraftKings	Clemson 18-13 Syracuse	Syracuse 13-18 (margin -5) +1.5 → -3.5 → LOSS · -1.00u
➖ PUSH	LEAN	Miami @ Notre Dame — Miami +7	-105 DraftKings	Notre Dame 31-24 Miami	Miami 24-31 (margin -7) +7 → +0 → PUSH · +0.00u
✅ WIN	LEAN	Georgia @ Ole Miss — Georgia -3.5	-112 DraftKings	Georgia 42-7 Ole Miss	Georgia 42-7 (margin +35) -3.5 → +31.5 → WIN · +0.89u
✅ WIN	LEAN	Kentucky @ Tennessee — Tennessee -6	-110 DraftKings	Tennessee 34-6 Kentucky	Tennessee 34-6 (margin +28) -6 → +22 → WIN · +0.91u

Best call: Georgia -3.5 (LEAN) at Ole Miss — Gunner Stockton’s five touchdowns and a 28-0 halftime lead made it a 35-point cover; Ole Miss turned it over twice and was held to 252 yards.

Worst beat: Missouri +2.5 (STRONG) — Missouri led Texas 20-13 in the fourth quarter until Arch Manning’s downfield fumble was recovered by Texas and upheld on replay, sparking 21 straight Texas points; Missouri’s Blake Craig also missed two field goals.

Expert scoreboard — Saturday, Nov 7

We graded 590 picks from 117 experts and models. The field went 297-285 (51%) against the consensus card’s 4-6 (40%).

Top of the day	Pick	Record	Units
Covers Computer Model	30 picks across the slate	19-11-0	+6.29u
SportsBettingDime – Chris Amberley	Oregon +8, Alabama +6, Georgia -3.5	6-0-1	+5.44u
Saturday Down South – Ethan Stone	Miami +7.5, Alabama +6, Utah -4.5	5-0-0	+4.55u
Sports Chat Place – David Racey	West Virginia +16.5, South Carolina -6.5	7-2-0	+4.37u
VSiN – Steve Makinen	Notre Dame -6.5, Utah -5.5	12-7-0	+3.92u

Also on the right side: Pete Fiutak (College Football News) and Chris Gregory (Covers) both went 6-2 (+3.46u), Nick Galaida (Covers) 4-1 (+2.78u), and Chris Landers (FanSided) and Drew Martin (WagerTalk) 3-0. At the bottom of the day: Chris Fallica (FOX Sports) 0-7 (-7.00u, all on Syracuse, UConn, Missouri and Miami), Wes Reynolds (VSiN) 1-7-1 (-6.09u), Stuckey (Action Network) 4-9 (-5.36u) and Brad Crawford (CBS Sports) 2-7 (-5.18u). The full field hit 51% of its decided picks (297-285, 8 pushes).

Season leaders (CFB, graded with us)	Record	Units	Consensus weight
DRatings Model	30-12	+15.30u	1.27
SportsBettingDime – Chris Amberley	23-9-1	+11.83u	1.23
College Football News – Doug Millen	56-41	+10.04u	1.12
Pickswise – Napier Montgomery	26-17	+9.95u	1.12
SportsLine Model	36-23-1	+9.89u	1.15
Covers – Colby Marchio	29-18	+9.85u	1.14
College Football News – Andre Cherry	56-42	+9.04u	1.11

How this changes the card

Saturday pushed eight more experts past the 15 decided picks needed for a rating, so 124 now carry a weight. The biggest new weights belong to Ethan Stone (Saturday Down South, 12-3, 1.18), Steve Greenberg (Chicago Sun-Times, 14-6, 1.15) and Spenser Davis (Saturday Down South, 10-5, 1.10), and Chris Amberley rose from 1.13 to 1.23 (23-9-1). Moving the other way, Chris Fallica (FOX Sports) fell from 0.77 to 0.65 at 11-29, Wes Reynolds (VSiN) from 1.13 to 1.02 at 28-24-2, and Stuckey (Action Network) from 0.98 to 0.88 at 13-18.

Season to date

Tier	All	Spread	Moneyline	Total	Units
STRONG	49-54	23-32	2-3	24-19	-9.70u
LEAN	31-36-1	18-25-1	4-4	9-7	-7.77u
FADE-WATCH (not staked)	5-4	4-2	—	1-2	—
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	80-90-1				-17.47u

Every card, every sport: the full consensus record.

All 51 games were final, with no overtime. 378 expert rows carried a line but no price and were graded at -110. Pushes: Notre Dame -7 and Miami +7 (31-24), Navy -7 (42-35 over Temple), and Under 48 in Vanderbilt-Mississippi State (25-23).

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