NBA Sportsbook Consensus Grading Recap — Saturday, November 7, 2026

Tamberlyn Richardson of Cappers Picks went 5-0 for +3.75 units on Saturday — Nuggets ML, Nuggets -7.5, Knicks ML, Knicks -3.5 and Warriors -6.5 all cashed — and she is now 28-7 (+17.68u) on the season with us, the best record in the field and the heaviest weight in the consensus. Eddie Kline (Picks and Parlays) went 6-2 for +3.46u, and Peter Tran (Pick Dawgz) was a clean 3-0 (+2.73u) on Nuggets -6.5, Nets +6.5 and Knicks -4.5, taking him to 36-25 (+7.60u) for the season.

Behind them, Joe Jensen (Predictem) and Jay Cooper (Ultimate Capper) each went 5-2 for +2.55u, and Adepoju Marvellous (Sports Mole) went 5-2 for +2.12u. Across the board we graded 162 expert picks from 46 experts on seven games, and the field went 102-60 (63%).

The consensus card went 7-2 for +3.89u. STRONG 5-2 (+2.04u), LEAN 2-0 (+1.85u). The two losses were both in Rockets at Suns — Rockets -7.5 and Over 221.5, each -1.00u. Every play is graded at the line we posted.

What actually happened

The Knicks did exactly what the card was built on. Cleveland was on zero rest and without Jarrett Allen, Jaylon Tyson and Sam Merrill, and Jalen Brunson scored 18 straight points in the second quarter to flip a 39-37 deficit into a 52-45 lead that New York never gave back. Donovan Mitchell scored 21 of his 37 in the fourth, but the Knicks won 109-97 — Knicks -4.5 covered, and the slow game kept the LEAN Under 224.5 well clear at 206.

In Oklahoma City the Under 219.5 was never in doubt. Washington played without Anthony Davis, lost DeAndre Ayton to a lower-leg injury late in the second quarter, and shot 29.6% — its worst since December 2017. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sat the whole fourth quarter of a 114-75 Thunder win, a combined 189 points. In Mexico City, Denver went on a 15-0 second-quarter run against a Pacers team missing Tyrese Haliburton and won 114-102, so Nuggets ML -268 cashed.

Two of the wins came down to the wire. Golden State led the Magic by 16 at halftime, Orlando scored 37 in the third, and Jamal Cain’s tip-in with 1.5 seconds left forced overtime; Stephen Curry (41 points) took over in OT and the Warriors won 126-119, covering -6.5 by half a point — overtime counts. In Atlanta, Brooklyn led 31-14 early and the Hawks, with Jalen Johnson back from his ankle sprain for 30 points, did not take their first lead until 1:26 remained; the Hawks won 124-121, so Nets +6.5 covered. Spurs-Blazers went over 227.5 by half a point at 228, after San Antonio’s 45-point third quarter turned it into a 125-103 blowout.

The consensus was beaten on the merits in Phoenix. Houston was rested and the Suns jumped out 35-23, Houston closed the half on a 22-3 run to tie it at 47, and then the offense dried up on both ends. With the game tied at 95, Devin Booker scored seven straight points and the Suns won 102-99 outright. No late scratch or in-game injury explains it; Rockets -7.5 and Over 221.5 both lost.

The card, by tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	Units
STRONG	5-2-0	71%	+2.04u
LEAN	2-0-0	100%	+1.85u
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	7-2-0	78%	+3.89u

Every play is graded at the line we posted.

Every play

Result	Tier	Play	Line	Final	Grading
✅ WIN	STRONG	Magic @ Warriors — Warriors -6.5 (-108)	-108 DraftKings	Warriors 126-119 Magic (OT)	Warriors 126 -6.5 = 119.5 vs Magic 119 — covers · +0.93u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Nets @ Hawks — Nets +6.5 (-109)	-109 DraftKings	Hawks 124-121 Nets	Nets 121 +6.5 = 127.5 vs Hawks 124 — covers · +0.92u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Knicks @ Cavaliers — Knicks -4.5 (-110)	-110 DraftKings	Knicks 109-97 Cavaliers	Knicks 109 -4.5 = 104.5 vs Cavaliers 97 — covers · +0.91u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Rockets @ Suns — Rockets -7.5 (-110)	-110 DraftKings	Suns 102-99 Rockets	Rockets 99 -7.5 = 91.5 vs Suns 102 — fails to cover · -1.00u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Wizards @ Thunder — Under 219.5 (-110)	-110 DraftKings	Thunder 114-75 Wizards	75 + 114 = 189, Under 219.5 cashes · +0.91u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Rockets @ Suns — Over 221.5 (-105)	-105 DraftKings	Suns 102-99 Rockets	99 + 102 = 201, Over 221.5 loses · -1.00u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Nuggets @ Pacers — Nuggets ML -268	-268 DraftKings	Nuggets 114-102 Pacers	Nuggets win 114-102 · +0.37u
✅ WIN	LEAN	Knicks @ Cavaliers — Under 224.5 (-110)	-110 DraftKings	Knicks 109-97 Cavaliers	109 + 97 = 206, Under 224.5 cashes · +0.91u
✅ WIN	LEAN	Spurs @ Trail Blazers — Over 227.5 (-106)	-106 DraftKings	Spurs 125-103 Trail Blazers	125 + 103 = 228, Over 227.5 cashes · +0.94u

Best call: Wizards @ Thunder Under 219.5 (STRONG): the total finished at 189, 30.5 points under. Washington was without Anthony Davis, lost DeAndre Ayton in the second quarter and shot 29.6%, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sat the fourth quarter of a 39-point game.

Worst beat: Rockets @ Suns: Rockets -7.5 and Over 221.5 (both STRONG) lost on one result. Houston erased a 12-point first-quarter hole with a 22-3 run but scored only 99, and Devin Booker’s seven straight points from a 95-95 tie gave Phoenix a 102-99 win — beaten on the merits, not by an injury.

Expert scoreboard — Saturday, Nov 7

We graded 162 picks from 46 experts and models. The field went 102-60 (63%) against the consensus card’s 7-2 (78%).

Top of the day	Pick	Record	Units
Cappers Picks – Tamberlyn Richardson	Nuggets ML -246; Nuggets -7.5; Knicks ML -163; Knicks -3.5; Warriors -6.5	5-0-0	+3.75u
Picks and Parlays – Eddie Kline	Nuggets -6.5; Nets +6.5; Thunder -11.5; Knicks -4.5; Under 220.5 (WAS-OKC); Under 225 (NYK-CLE)	6-2-0	+3.46u
Pick Dawgz – Peter Tran	Nuggets -6.5; Nets +6.5 (-106); Knicks -4.5 (-114)	3-0-0	+2.73u
Predictem – Joe Jensen	Nuggets -7.5; Nets +6.5; Knicks -4.5; Warriors -6.5; Spurs -6.5	5-2-0	+2.55u
Ultimate Capper – Jay Cooper	Nuggets -7.5; Nets +6.5; Thunder -11.5; Knicks -5; Suns +7	5-2-0	+2.55u

Also on the right side: Adepoju Marvellous (Sports Mole) 5-2 (+2.12u); Jon Metler (Covers) 1-0 (+2.31u) on Suns ML +231; David Anicetti (Winners and Whiners) and Tony Sink (Doc’s Sports) each 2-0 (+1.82u); Filip Tomic (Pickswise) 3-1 (+1.82u); Anthony Rome (TheSpread.com) 3-1 (+1.77u); and Kim Smith (StatsAlt) 8-3 (+1.74u). At the bottom of the day: AM 1300 The Zone Model went 1-5 (-4.09u), the iHeart Model 8-9 (-3.44u), Alexander Mihalchenko (Scores24) 0-3 (-3.00u) and David Anicetti (StatsAlt) 0-2 (-2.00u).

Season leaders (NBA, graded with us)	Record	Units	Consensus weight
Cappers Picks – Tamberlyn Richardson	28-7	+17.68u	1.35
Picks and Parlays – Kim Smith	78-50	+14.31u	1.22
HispanosNBA – Freddy Diaz	22-6	+10.82u	1.28
Doc's Sports – Tony Sink	28-16	+9.52u	1.17
WagerTalk – Kyle Kargel	27-16	+7.76u	1.15
Pick Dawgz – Peter Tran	36-25	+7.60u	1.12
Doc's Sports – Josh Schonwald	21-12	+7.15u	1.14

How this changes the card

Tamberlyn Richardson (Cappers Picks) is now 28-7 and carries the heaviest weight in the consensus at 1.35, ahead of Freddy Diaz (HispanosNBA, 22-6, 1.28) and Kim Smith (Picks and Parlays, 78-50, 1.22). Peter Tran (Pick Dawgz) is up to 36-25 at 1.12. Jay Cooper (Ultimate Capper) still sits below neutral at 0.86 (54-62-1) despite his 5-2 night, and Marcus Reeds (ScoresAndStats, 12-30) remains the lowest weight at 0.66. Fifty experts have now passed the 15 decided picks needed to be rated.

Season to date

Tier	All	Spread	Moneyline	Total	Units
STRONG	65-43	27-17	12-3	26-23	+11.45u
LEAN	19-17	12-11	1-3	6-3	-0.40u
FADE-WATCH (not staked)	2-3	2-2	0-1	—	—
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	84-60				+11.05u

Every card, every sport: the full consensus record.

Magic @ Warriors went to overtime; overtime counts for every market. Expert rows with no sportsbook price were graded at -110; rows logged in decimal odds were graded at those decimal odds.

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