NFL Sportsbook Consensus Grading Recap — Sunday, November 8, 2026

John Breech (CBS Sports) went 9-2 against the spread on Sunday for +6.19u, hitting Bengals -3, Browns +2.5, Colts +6, Broncos -3, Lions -7, Rams -5.5, Giants -3.5, Texans -4.5 and Packers +3. Joe Jensen (Predictem) went 7-1 ATS for +5.41u and is now 35-28-1 with us, and Matt Bowen (ESPN) was perfect at 3-0 (+2.73u) on Bengals -3, Packers +3.5 and Broncos -2.5.

On units, SportsBettingDime AI Model led the field at 20-6 (+12.18u) and sits at 54-38-2, +10.46u on the season. Trevor Knapp (Covers) went 11-1 picking winners straight up (+9.01u) and is 45-25, +12.68u with us — the highest weight in the NFL consensus. Season leader by units is Jordan Dajani (CBS Sports) at 34-18, +12.94u.

The consensus card went 4-7 for -3.48u. STRONG 3-7 (-4.31u): 2-1 on sides (+0.74u) and 1-6 on totals (-5.05u). LEAN 1-0 (+0.83u). The FADE-WATCH (Jets +9.5) lost and is tracked at 0 units. Every play is graded at the line we posted.

What actually happened

The sides held up. Houston turned Texans -5.5 into a 44-22 rout: C.J. Stroud threw for 384 yards and five touchdowns, including two 63-yard scores, and the defense sacked Justin Herbert eight times as the Chargers fell to 0-8. The Giants covered -3 in a 19-11 win in Philadelphia — Jameis Winston came on after J.J. McCarthy hurt his hip and threw the go-ahead touchdown to Isaiah Likely, and Dominic Zvada kicked four field goals as the Eagles lost a seventh straight. The LEAN on Broncos -2.5 cashed 26-21 after Nik Bonitto strip-sacked Bryce Young with 1:24 left, and Denver had already taken points off the board when a Sean Payton challenge turned a Carolina play at the Denver 1 into a Devon Key interception.

Cowboys -5.5 missed by a point and a half. Dallas won 27-23 but needed Javonte Williams’ 1-yard touchdown with 1:08 left and a Caleb Downs interception to close it, after 14 penalties for 153 yards and blowing a fourth-quarter lead. The same game finished at 50, a point and a half short of the Over 51.5.

The totals were beaten mostly on the merits. Packers-Patriots blew past 44.5 when Drake Maye threw three first-half interceptions and Green Bay scored 18 unanswered in the third quarter of a 45-27 game. Texans-Chargers reached 66, well over 40.5, on Houston’s explosive plays. Lions-Dolphins stayed at 28 against an Over 49.5: Jake Bates kicked four field goals and Miami went 0-for-3 in the red zone in a 19-9 game. Cardinals-Seahawks finished 17-3, far under 39.5 — Seattle played without Sam Darnold (Drew Lock started) and stopped Arizona on fourth-and-goal from the 2. The lone totals winner was Rams-Commanders Under 47.5: Washington managed one field goal over the final 44 minutes of a 20-13 game while Puka Nacua caught 14 passes for 150 yards.

Browns-Saints Under 42.5 was decided in overtime. The game was tied 16-16 at the end of regulation, ten points under the number. In overtime Tyler Shough hit Juwan Johnson for a touchdown, Shedeur Sanders — starting with Deshaun Watson out after the concussion protocol, the scenario the read expected — answered with a 39-yard score to Harold Fannin Jr., and Cleveland’s two-point try failed. Final 23-22, total 45; overtime counts.

The FADE-WATCH on Jets +9.5 went the other way: Kansas City led only 14-12 at halftime, then scored 21 unanswered behind three Kenneth Walker III touchdowns for a 35-12 win. Patrick Mahomes hurt his throwing elbow on a strip-sack but stayed in.

The card, by tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	Units
STRONG	3-7-0	30%	-4.31u
LEAN	1-0-0	100%	+0.83u
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	4-7-0	36%	-3.48u
FADE-WATCH (tracked, not staked)	0-1-0	0%	+0.00u

Every play is graded at the line we posted.

Every play

Result	Tier	Play	Line	Final	Grading
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Cowboys @ Colts — Cowboys -5.5	-105 FanDuel	Cowboys 27-23 Colts	Cowboys +4 with -5.5 = -1.5 ❌ · -1.00u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Giants @ Eagles — Giants -3	-120 FanDuel	Giants 19-11 Eagles	Giants +8 with -3 = +5 ✅ · +0.83u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Texans @ Chargers — Texans -5.5	-110 FanDuel	Texans 44-22 Chargers	Texans +22 with -5.5 = +16.5 ✅ · +0.91u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Browns @ Saints — Under 42.5	-110 FanDuel	Browns 22-23 Saints	22+23=45 vs Under 42.5 ❌ · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Texans @ Chargers — Under 40.5	-105 FanDuel	Texans 44-22 Chargers	44+22=66 vs Under 40.5 ❌ · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Lions @ Dolphins — Over 49.5	-120 FanDuel	Lions 19-9 Dolphins	19+9=28 vs Over 49.5 ❌ · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Packers @ Patriots — Under 44.5	-110 FanDuel	Packers 45-27 Patriots	45+27=72 vs Under 44.5 ❌ · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Cowboys @ Colts — Over 51.5	-110 FanDuel	Cowboys 27-23 Colts	27+23=50 vs Over 51.5 ❌ · -1.00u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Rams @ Commanders — Under 47.5	-105 FanDuel	Rams 20-13 Commanders	20+13=33 vs Under 47.5 ✅ · +0.95u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Cardinals @ Seahawks — Over 39.5	-110 FanDuel	Cardinals 3-17 Seahawks	3+17=20 vs Over 39.5 ❌ · -1.00u
✅ WIN	LEAN	Broncos @ Panthers — Broncos -2.5	-120 FanDuel	Broncos 26-21 Panthers	Broncos +5 with -2.5 = +2.5 ✅ · +0.83u
❌ LOSS	FADE-WATCH	Jets @ Chiefs — Jets +9.5	-105 FanDuel	Jets 12-35 Chiefs	Jets -23 with +9.5 = -13.5 ❌ · +0.00u

Best call: Texans -5.5 (STRONG) — Houston won 44-22 by 22: Stroud threw five touchdowns and the pass rush recorded eight sacks, exactly the defensive mismatch the consensus was built on.

Worst beat: Browns-Saints Under 42.5 (STRONG) — 32 points at the end of regulation, then two overtime touchdowns (and a failed two-point try) took it to 45.

Expert scoreboard — Sunday, Nov 8

We graded 740 picks from 105 experts and models. The field went 400-340 (54.1%) against the consensus card’s 4-7 (36%).

Top of the day	Pick	Record	Units
SportsBettingDime AI Model	13 sides + 13 moneylines (Bengals -3.5, Texans -3.5, Seahawks -10.5…)	20-6-0	+12.18u
Covers – Trevor Knapp	12 moneylines (Bengals, Cowboys, Lions, Rams, Giants…)	11-1-0	+9.01u
CBS Sports – John Breech	Bengals -3, Browns +2.5, Colts +6, Lions -7…	9-2-0	+6.19u
Predictem – Joe Jensen	Texans -4.5, Buccaneers +6, Packers +3, 49ers -10…	7-1-0	+5.41u
ESPN – Matt Bowen	Bengals -3, Packers +3.5, Broncos -2.5	3-0-0	+2.73u

Also on the right side: Sportsbook Review AI Model, Athlon Sports’ Easterling and RotoWire’s Nick Whalen each went 9-4 (+4.19u), and David Anicetti (Winners and Whiners) went 7-3 (+3.37u). At the bottom of the day: Mike Spector (Sportsbook Review) 13-14 (-7.15u), Liam Fox (Sportsbook Review) 3-9 (-6.27u), and Bleacher Report’s Davenport and RotoWire’s Jim Coventry, each 4-9 (-5.36u). The field as a whole went 400-340 (54%).

Season leaders (NFL, graded with us)	Record	Units	Consensus weight
CBS Sports – Jordan Dajani	34-18	+12.94u	1.21
Covers – Trevor Knapp	45-25	+12.68u	1.23
SportsBettingDime AI Model	54-38-2	+10.46u	1.14
CBS Sports – Jamey Eisenberg	49-37-3	+7.66u	1.10
SportsLine Model	25-16-3	+6.94u	1.12
Lineups – Richard Janvrin	8-1	+6.28u	1.00 (9 of 15 decided)
Sports Chat Place – David Racey	14-7	+6.17u	1.12

How this changes the card

Trevor Knapp (Covers) carries the heaviest weight in the NFL consensus at 1.23 after Sunday’s 11-1, on a 45-25 record. SportsBettingDime AI Model (54-38-2) is at 1.14 and Mike Spector (39-28) holds 1.11 despite a 13-14 day. At the other end, Jim Coventry (RotoWire, 10-21) is down to 0.76 and Easterling (Athlon Sports, 49-60-4) to 0.82 even after his 9-4 Sunday; 101 experts now have the 15 decided picks needed to be rated.

Season to date

Tier	All	Spread	Moneyline	Total	Units
STRONG	34-49-1	9-15	8-5	17-29-1	-19.91u
LEAN	17-24	8-18	3-1	6-5	-9.05u
FADE-WATCH (not staked)	4-3	3-3	—	1-0	—
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	51-73-1				-28.96u

Every card, every sport: the full consensus record.

Moneyline and spread rows logged without a sportsbook price are graded at -110 under our standing rule; that lifts the units for straight-up pickers on heavy favorites (Covers – Trevor Knapp, SportsBettingDime AI Model). Browns-Saints went to overtime and overtime counts. Sources (ESPN, AP, team sites) label this slate Week 9.

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