CFB Consensus Weekly Recap — Who’s Hot / Who’s Not — Week of Nov 5–7, 2026
Three names carried the board over college football’s Thursday-through-Saturday slate. Chris Amberley of SportsBettingDime was the week’s best graded source at 11-1-1 for +8.96 units, hitting 91.7% of decided picks, and is 23-9-1 (+11.83 units) with us on the season. The Covers Computer Model was right behind at 19-11-0 for +6.29 units across a 30-pick week, a strong swing for a source sitting 54-63-0 (-13.86 units) since September. David Racey of Sports Chat Place rounded out the top three at 8-2-0 for +5.28 units, moving to 18-15-0 (+1.27 units) on the year.
The card this week
The consensus STRONG plays finished 5-9-0 for -4.46 units, with the spread side at 3-7-0 (-4.22 units) and totals close to flat at 2-2-0 (-0.24 units). The LEAN tier was the better half of the card at 4-2-1 for +1.58 units, carried by a 3-0-1 spread ledger worth +2.73 units. Together the card came to 9-11-1 for -2.88 units over three graded days, and the FADE-WATCH tier, which is tracked at zero units, went 1-0-0. Every graded day, tier and market is posted on the consensus record page.
Market check
The week split cleanly by tier and market. LEAN spreads did the work: 3-0-1 and +2.73 units, the only line on the card that cleared a full unit. STRONG spreads were the drag at 3-7-0 for -4.22 units, and that single bucket accounts for more than the card’s entire shortfall. Totals were a non-event in both tiers, 2-2-0 in STRONG and 1-1-0 in LEAN, together inside half a unit either way. Moneylines were barely used and the one LEAN price lost. Across all 154 graded sources the field hit 51.3% of decided picks (402-382-8, -15.34 units), ahead of the card’s 45.0% — a reminder that when consensus concentrates on heavy spread favorites, the broader board can be the steadier read.
Hot this week
| Expert | Outlet | W-L-P | Hit rate | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Amberley | SportsBettingDime | 11-1-1 | 91.7% | +8.96 |
| Covers Computer Model | Covers Computer Model | 19-11-0 | 63.3% | +6.29 |
| David Racey | Sports Chat Place | 8-2-0 | 80% | +5.28 |
| Ethan Stone | Saturday Down South | 5-0-0 | 100% | +4.55 |
| Guy Bruhn | Doc’s Sports | 7-2-0 | 77.8% | +4.37 |
| Chris Gregory | Covers | 6-2-0 | 75% | +3.46 |
| Joe Jensen | Predictem | 9-5-0 | 64.3% | +3.17 |
| Steve Makinen | VSiN | 13-9-0 | 59.1% | +2.83 |
| Nick Galaida | Covers | 4-1-0 | 80% | +2.78 |
| Adam Burke | VSiN | 4-1-1 | 80% | +2.68 |
Season leaders
| Expert | Outlet | Record | Units | Consensus weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DRatings Model | DRatings Model | 30-12-0 | +15.30 | 1.27 |
| Chris Amberley | SportsBettingDime | 23-9-1 | +11.83 | 1.23 |
| Doug Millen | College Football News | 56-41-0 | +10.04 | 1.12 |
| Napier Montgomery | Pickswise | 26-17-0 | +9.95 | 1.12 |
| SportsLine Model | SportsLine Model | 36-23-1 | +9.89 | 1.15 |
| Colby Marchio | Covers | 29-18-0 | +9.85 | 1.14 |
| Andre Cherry | College Football News | 56-42-0 | +9.04 | 1.11 |
| Matt Youmans | VSiN | 23-12-2 | +8.85 | 1.17 |
| Ben Dezell | Pickswise | 24-15-0 | +8.66 | 1.13 |
| Ethan Stone | Saturday Down South | 12-3-0 | +7.92 | 1.18 |
| Steve Makinen | VSiN | 68-54-4 | +7.88 | 1.08 |
| Thom Cunningham | Lineups | 16-7-0 | +7.55 | 1.16 |
This is the top of the board, not all of it. The full graded record for every source we track — good weeks and bad — is public on the grading pages.
What we’re watching
STRONG spreads are now the one bucket that has not come around: 23-32-0 and -11.36 units on the season against a STRONG totals ledger of 24-19-0 and +2.87 units. This week repeated the pattern exactly, and the LEAN tier again graded better than the tier above it. Going into next week we are watching how much of a STRONG designation is being driven by a crowd of sources agreeing on a favorite versus agreeing on a number, and we are paying closer attention to where totals consensus forms — that is where the tiering has held up.
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Season to date — the card
Live from the grading ledger, so it includes every game graded since this recap went up.
College football consensus card
Graded Sep 11 – Nov 7 · 26 graded days| Tier | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| STRONG | 23-32 -11.36u | 2-3 -1.21u | 24-19 +2.87u |
| LEAN | 18-25-1 -8.46u | 4-4 -0.41u | 9-7 +1.10u |
FADE-WATCH (tracked, not staked, kept out of the card record): 5-4.
Every sport’s consensus record →
Flat 1-unit stakes at the line and price we posted before the game. STRONG and LEAN are tiered before the game starts and graded against the confirmed final the next morning. Updated automatically from the grading ledger.