NBA Sportsbook Consensus Grading Recap — Monday, November 9, 2026

Bleacher Nation went 3-0 for +3.12u on Monday, all three on Memphis in Toronto — Grizzlies +3.5, Grizzlies ML (+130) and Under 230.5 — and is now 43-28 (+5.33u) with us this season. TheLines’ Nick Crain also ran the table at 3-0 (+3.05u) with Grizzlies ML (+129), Rockets -8.5 and Over 222 in Pacers-Mavericks. Doc’s Sports’ Guy Bruhn went 2-0 (+1.80u) on Rockets -8.5 and Pistons -10.5 and moves to 27-17 (+7.58u) on the season, while TheRx’s Jordan Harlow (Lakers +2.5, Over 236.5) and StatsAlt’s Cameron Ross (Rockets -8.5, Under 217.5) each finished 2-0 for +1.82u. Sports Chat Place’s Peter Tran added a 3-1 night (+1.73u) and sits 37-28 (+5.71u).

The consensus card went 4-4 for -0.47u. All eight plays were STRONG: STRONG 4-4 (-0.47u), spreads 3-2 (+0.65u), totals 1-2 (-1.12u). Every play is graded at the line we posted.

What actually happened

The wins came from the clearest edges. San Antonio won 122-96 in Phoenix for its ninth straight victory; Victor Wembanyama had 40 points, 11 rebounds and 9 blocks on 15-of-19 shooting, a 21-2 run built a 61-46 halftime lead, and the starters sat for much of the fourth. Memphis beat a Toronto team missing Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley and Kawhi Leonard 118-102 behind Ty Jerome’s 27. Houston held off Denver 110-100 even with Nikola Jokic (25 and 16) and Jamal Murray (38) both playing — the questionable list cleared, and the Rockets still covered by a point and a half on the strength of 6-of-11 three-point shooting in both the first and fourth quarters. Lakers-Hawks cleared 237.5 by half a point, 124-114, with Luka Doncic posting 32-8-10 a night after sitting.

Two of the losses were voided or bent premises rather than wrong reads. Washington-Detroit was an Under built partly on Anthony Davis’ ankle; Davis played and scored 44 (30 in the first half on 10-of-11), and the game went to 233. Pelicans-Warriors was an Over, but New Orleans rested Zion Williamson and sat Trey Murphy III after the card posted; Golden State won 138-87, the Pelicans scored only 87, and the 225 total fell 6.5 short.

The other two were beaten on the merits. Charlotte, without Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel, hit 23 of 46 threes and led by 33 in a 124-112 win over Cleveland; the Cavaliers’ reserves played the entire fourth and cut the final margin, but the cover was gone long before that. And Dallas beat Indiana 125-122 behind Cooper Flagg’s 43 and Kyrie Irving’s 35 — a half point short of -3.5 after Aaron Nesmith’s late three and P.J. Washington’s two missed free throws with four seconds left.

The card, by tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	Units
STRONG	4-4-0	50%	-0.47u
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	4-4-0	50%	-0.47u

Every play is graded at the line we posted.

Every play

Result	Tier	Play	Line	Final	Grading
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Cavaliers @ Hornets — Cavaliers -8.5	-8.5 (-110) DraftKings	Hornets 124-112 Cavaliers	Hornets won by 12; Cavaliers 112 – 8.5 = 103.5 vs 124 → does not cover -8.5 ❌ · -1.00u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Nuggets @ Rockets — Rockets -8.5	-8.5 (-115) DraftKings	Rockets 110-100 Nuggets	Rockets by 10; 110 – 8.5 = 101.5 vs 100 → covers -8.5 ✅ · +0.87u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Lakers @ Hawks — Over 237.5	237.5 (-113) DraftKings	Lakers 124-114 Hawks	124 + 114 = 238 → Over 237.5 cashes by half a point ✅ · +0.88u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Grizzlies @ Raptors — Grizzlies +3.5	+3.5 (-110) DraftKings	Grizzlies 118-102 Raptors	Grizzlies won by 16; 118 + 3.5 = 121.5 vs 102 → covers +3.5 ✅ · +0.91u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Pelicans @ Warriors — Over 231.5	231.5 (-110) DraftKings	Warriors 138-87 Pelicans	138 + 87 = 225 → Over 231.5 falls 6.5 short ❌ · -1.00u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Spurs @ Suns — Spurs -8.5	-8.5 (-115) DraftKings	Spurs 122-96 Suns	Spurs by 26; 122 – 8.5 = 113.5 vs 96 → covers -8.5 ✅ · +0.87u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Wizards @ Pistons — Under 218.5	218.5 (-110) DraftKings	Pistons 122-111 Wizards	122 + 111 = 233 → Under 218.5 loses by 14.5 ❌ · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Pacers @ Mavericks — Mavericks -3.5	-3.5 (-116) DraftKings	Mavericks 125-122 Pacers	Mavericks by 3; 125 – 3.5 = 121.5 vs 122 → misses -3.5 by half a point ❌ · -1.00u

Best call: Spurs -8.5 (-115): San Antonio won 122-96 in Phoenix, a 26-point margin, as Wembanyama scored 40 with 9 blocks and a 21-2 second-quarter run broke it open; the starters rested for much of the fourth and it was never close. Grizzlies +3.5 also cashed by 19.5 points against a Toronto team missing Barnes, Quickley and Leonard.

Worst beat: Mavericks -3.5 (-116): Dallas won 125-122 and missed the cover by half a point. Up 123-119 with 26 seconds left, the Mavericks gave up a Nesmith three, Irving made two free throws for 125-122, and P.J. Washington missed two free throws with four seconds left that would have covered.

Expert scoreboard — Monday, Nov 9

We graded 165 picks from 51 experts and models. The field went 87-78 (52.7%) against the consensus card’s 4-4 (50%).

Top of the day	Pick	Record	Units
Bleacher Nation	Grizzlies +3.5; Grizzlies ML +130; Under 230.5	3-0-0	+3.12u
TheLines – Nick Crain	Grizzlies ML +129; Rockets -8.5 (-115); Over 222 (-112)	3-0-0	+3.05u
TheRx – Jordan Harlow	Lakers +2.5; Over 236.5	2-0-0	+1.82u
StatsAlt – Cameron Ross	Rockets -8.5; Under 217.5	2-0-0	+1.82u
Doc's Sports – Guy Bruhn	Rockets -8.5 (-115); Pistons -10.5 (-108)	2-0-0	+1.80u

Also on the right side: Sports Chat Place’s Peter Tran 3-1 (+1.73u), Covers’ Jon Metler and Ultimate Capper’s Jay Cooper 5-3 (+1.55u each), Winners and Whiners’ Cameron Ross 4-2 (+1.37u) and Sports Mole’s Vladimir Kovacevic 4-2 (+1.01u). The bottom of the day: StatsAlt’s Kim Smith 5-7 (-4.10u), Winners and Whiners’ David Anicetti 0-4 (-4.00u) and Scores24’s Alexander Mihalchenko 0-3 (-3.00u). The field finished 87-78 (-6.96u).

Season leaders (NBA, graded with us)	Record	Units	Consensus weight
Cappers Picks – Tamberlyn Richardson	31-10	+17.41u	1.33
Picks and Parlays – Kim Smith	83-51	+16.58u	1.24
HispanosNBA – Freddy Diaz	23-7	+10.37u	1.28
WagerTalk – Kyle Kargel	27-16	+7.76u	1.15
Doc's Sports – Guy Bruhn	27-17	+7.58u	1.13
Doc's Sports – Tony Sink	29-19	+7.43u	1.13
Pick Dawgz – Peter Tran	39-29	+6.29u	1.09

How this changes the card

Bleacher Nation’s consensus weight rises from 1.12 to 1.16 (43-28) and Doc’s Sports’ Guy Bruhn from 1.10 to 1.13 (27-17); TheLines’ Nick Crain climbs from 0.90 to 0.96 (11-12). Winners and Whiners’ David Anicetti drops from 1.17 to 1.08 (15-10) and StatsAlt’s Kim Smith from 1.19 to 1.14 (57-40-1). Sports Mole’s Vladimir Kovacevic (12-6), Pickswise’s Ben Dezell (9-6) and StatsAlt’s Cameron Ross (8-7) reached 15 decided picks and are now rated, so 55 experts carry a weight going forward.

Season to date

Tier	All	Spread	Moneyline	Total	Units
STRONG	72-49	31-20	13-3	28-26	+10.98u
LEAN	20-19	13-13	1-3	6-3	-1.51u
FADE-WATCH (not staked)	2-3	2-2	0-1	—	—
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	92-68				+9.47u

Every card, every sport: the full consensus record.

All eight games were final in regulation. Expert picks listed without a sportsbook price are graded at -110; decimal odds are converted at their stated price.

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