NBA Sportsbook Consensus Grading Recap — Tuesday, November 10, 2026

Jordan Harlow of TheRx had the best Tuesday in the room at 6-2, +3.48u. He had Orlando -5.5 and the Under in Sacramento, Boston +1.5 and the Over in Philadelphia, and Phoenix -3.5 against the Clippers. That puts him at 52-45-2 for the season with us.

Freddy Diaz of HispanosNBA went 5-2 for +2.41u. His wins included the Knicks-Bucks Under, Suns moneyline and the Over in Phoenix. He is now 28-9 (+12.78u) with us, one of the best records in our NBA logs. The BetMGM Model went 7-3 for +1.90u on its first graded night, sweeping Celtics, Heat-Jazz and Suns. Parlay’s Pundit at Doc’s Sports went 2-0 (+1.82u) on Jazz +8.5 and the Under in Utah.

The consensus card went 3-5 for -2.60u. STRONG went 2-3 (-1.53u) and LEAN went 1-2 (-1.07u). Every play is graded at the line we posted.

What actually happened

Boston and Philadelphia were tied 76-76 late in the third. Then the Celtics made four straight threes from four different players during a 26-3 run, and won 123-101. Paul George scored 36 on 14-of-22 shooting, and the LEAN play on Celtics -1.5 cashed easily. The same pace sent the game to 224 points, so the LEAN Under 218.5 lost by 5.5.

Phoenix closed the first quarter on a 13-0 run and led by as many as 32. The Suns’ bench outscored the Clippers’ bench 81-62, with Jordan Goodwin 6-of-7 from three. The STRONG Suns moneyline won. The STRONG Clippers +3.5 was never close: Phoenix led by 27 after three, did not use a starter in the fourth, and still won 133-110. That was a loss on the merits, not a voided premise.

In Portland it was 59-59 at halftime. Damian Lillard then led a 38-21 third quarter that included back-to-back threes and a logo three, and the Blazers won 123-103. Oklahoma City was missing Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace and Jaylin Williams. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 26 on 8-of-22 shooting and sat the fourth. The STRONG Thunder moneyline lost on the merits. The STRONG Under 224.5 lost by a point and a half, 226 total, after a fourth quarter played mostly by reserves.

Utah played without four starters: Lauri Markkanen, Keyonte George, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jusuf Nurkic. Miami led by 20 after three behind 30 points from Giannis Antetokounmpo, who played through a sprained wrist. The Jazz won the fourth 37-23, with four straight threes from Isaiah Collier and two late Svi Mykhailiuk baskets, to lose only 115-109. That kept the STRONG Jazz +8.5 inside the number. In Sacramento, Franz Wagner scored a season-high 33 and Anthony Black 26 as Orlando ended a four-game skid 107-100. The LEAN Kings moneyline lost.

The card, by tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	Units
STRONG	2-3-0	40%	-1.53u
LEAN	1-2-0	33%	-1.07u
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	3-5-0	38%	-2.60u

Every play is graded at the line we posted.

Every play

Result	Tier	Play	Line	Final	Grading
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Clippers @ Suns — Clippers +3.5	-112 DraftKings	Suns 133-110 Clippers	Clippers 110 + 3.5 = 113.5 vs Suns 133 → misses by 19.5 ❌ · -1.00u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Clippers @ Suns — Suns ML	-167 DraftKings	Suns 133-110 Clippers	Suns win by 23 ✅ · +0.60u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Heat @ Jazz — Jazz +8.5	-115 DraftKings	Heat 115-109 Jazz	Jazz 109 + 8.5 = 117.5 vs Heat 115 → covers ✅ · +0.87u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Thunder @ Trail Blazers — Thunder ML	-135 BetMGM	Trail Blazers 123-103 Thunder	Thunder lose by 20 ❌ · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Thunder @ Trail Blazers — Under 224.5	-115 BetMGM	Trail Blazers 123-103 Thunder	103 + 123 = 226 → over 224.5 ❌ · -1.00u
✅ WIN	LEAN	Celtics @ 76ers — Celtics -1.5	-107 DraftKings	Celtics 123-101 76ers	Celtics by 22 → covers -1.5 ✅ · +0.93u
❌ LOSS	LEAN	Celtics @ 76ers — Under 218.5	-115 DraftKings	Celtics 123-101 76ers	123 + 101 = 224 → over 218.5 ❌ · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	LEAN	Magic @ Kings — Kings ML	+190 BetMGM	Magic 107-100 Kings	Kings lose by 7 ❌ · -1.00u

Best call: Jazz +8.5 (STRONG, 10 of 13 experts). Utah was missing four starters and trailed by 20 after three, but won the fourth 37-23 behind Isaiah Collier’s four straight threes to lose only 115-109.

Worst beat: Thunder-Blazers Under 224.5 (STRONG, 5 of 5 experts). It was 177 after three, and a fourth quarter played mostly by reserves added 49 points to finish at 226, a point and a half over.

Expert scoreboard — Tuesday, Nov 10

We graded 147 picks from 38 experts and models. The field went 72-75 (49%) against the consensus card’s 3-5 (38%).

Top of the day	Pick	Record	Units
TheRx – Jordan Harlow	Suns -3.5 (-105)	6-2-0	+3.48u
HispanosNBA – Freddy Diaz	Clippers-Suns Over 226.5 (1.90)	5-2-0	+2.41u
BetMGM Model	Jazz +9.5 (-115)	7-3-0	+1.90u
Doc's Sports – Parlay's Pundit	Jazz +8.5	2-0-0	+1.82u

Also on the right side: Brandon Lee (Boyd’s Bets) and Kyrone Jones (Raw Chili) each went 1-0 for +0.95u, on Blazers +1.5 and Jazz +9.5. Kyrone Jones (Sportsgambler), Joe Jensen (Predictem), Vladimir Kovacevic (Sports Mole), and Peter Tran and Randy Chambers (Pick Dawgz) each went 2-1. At the bottom of the night were the iHeart Model at 6-9 (-4.25u), Jay Cooper (Ultimate Capper) at 2-4 (-2.18u), Kim Smith (StatsAlt) at 5-5 (-2.17u) and Peter Dewey (Sports Illustrated) at 1-3 (-2.10u). The full field went 72-75.

Season leaders (NBA, graded with us)	Record	Units	Consensus weight
Cappers Picks – Tamberlyn Richardson	33-12	+17.23u	1.31
Picks and Parlays – Kim Smith	84-52	+16.49u	1.24
HispanosNBA – Freddy Diaz	28-9	+12.78u	1.31
WagerTalk – Kyle Kargel	27-16	+7.76u	1.15
Doc's Sports – Guy Bruhn	28-18	+7.49u	1.13
Doc's Sports – Tony Sink	30-20	+7.34u	1.12
Pick Dawgz – Peter Tran	41-30	+7.08u	1.10

How this changes the card

Freddy Diaz (HispanosNBA) gained weight, 1.28 to 1.31 at 28-9. He is now level with Tamberlyn Richardson (Cappers Picks, 33-12), who eased from 1.33 to 1.31 and is still the season’s units leader. Jordan Harlow (TheRx) moved from 0.98 to 1.03 at 52-45-2. Bleacher Nation (1.16 to 1.13), Peter Dewey (0.98 to 0.95) and Jay Cooper (0.87 to 0.85) lost ground. Lineups.com’s Thom Cunningham reached 15 decided picks and enters the ratings at 0.90 (6-10), which brings the rated pool to 56 experts.

Season to date

Tier	All	Spread	Moneyline	Total	Units
STRONG	74-52	32-21	14-4	28-27	+9.45u
LEAN	21-21	14-13	1-4	6-4	-2.58u
FADE-WATCH (not staked)	2-3	2-2	0-1	—	—
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	95-73				+6.87u

Every card, every sport: the full consensus record.

147 of 147 logged expert picks graded; none rejected. Rows without a sportsbook price were graded at -110, and decimal odds were converted. No game went to overtime.

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