NFL Consensus Weekly Recap — Who’s Hot / Who’s Not — Week 9 (Nov 5–9, 2026)
Week 9 belonged to a handful of sharp sources. SportsBettingDime AI Model went 21-6-0 for +12.43u, and is 54-38-2 (+10.46u) on the season with us. Trevor Knapp (Covers) went 11-1-0 for +9.01u, and is 45-25-0 (+12.68u) on the season with us. John Breech (CBS Sports) went 9-2-0 for +6.19u, and is 48-47-3 (-3.30u) on the season with us.
The card this week
The consensus STRONG tier went 5-7-0 for -2.44u. The LEAN tier went 3-2-0 for -0.16u. Together the card finished 8-9-0 (-2.60u); FADE-WATCH, tracked at 0 units, went 0-1-0. The full graded record is on the consensus record page.
Market check
Spreads carried the week: STRONG spreads went 3-1-0 (+1.63u) and LEAN spreads went 2-0-0 (+1.66u). Totals were the drag — STRONG totals went 2-6-0 (-4.07u) and the lone LEAN total lost (-1.00u). LEAN moneylines split 1-1-0 (-0.82u). Across all 127 experts, the field hit 55.7% of its picks (470-374-0, +39.61u), against 47.1% for the card.
Hot this week
| Expert | Outlet | W-L-P | Hit rate | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBettingDime AI Model | SportsBettingDime | 21-6-0 | 77.8% | +12.43u |
| Trevor Knapp | Covers | 11-1-0 | 91.7% | +9.01u |
| John Breech | CBS Sports | 9-2-0 | 81.8% | +6.19u |
| Joe Jensen | Predictem | 8-2-0 | 80% | +5.32u |
| Jared Dubin | CBS Sports | 10-4-0 | 71.4% | +5.10u |
| Easterling | Athlon Sports | 10-4-0 | 71.4% | +5.10u |
| Kim Smith | Picks and Parlays | 12-6-0 | 66.7% | +4.99u |
| Sportsbook Review AI Model | Sportsbook Review | 9-4-0 | 69.2% | +4.19u |
| Knox | Bleacher Report | 10-5-0 | 66.7% | +4.10u |
| Hanford | Bleacher Report | 10-5-0 | 66.7% | +4.10u |
Season leaders
| Expert | Record | Units | Consensus weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Covers – Trevor Knapp | 45-25-0 | +12.68u | 1.23 |
| CBS Sports – Jordan Dajani | 34-19-0 | +11.94u | 1.19 |
| SportsBettingDime AI Model | 54-38-2 | +10.46u | 1.14 |
| CBS Sports – Jamey Eisenberg | 49-37-3 | +7.66u | 1.10 |
| Sports Chat Place – David Racey | 15-7-0 | +7.08u | 1.14 |
| SportsLine Model | 25-17-3 | +5.94u | 1.10 |
| Bleacher Report – Moton | 57-46-3 | +5.93u | 1.07 |
| SI – Manzano | 39-21-1 | +5.34u | 1.22 |
| Pickswise – Andrew Wilsher | 8-3-0 | +5.17u | 1.00 |
| VSiN – Wes Reynolds | 31-22-0 | +5.05u | 1.10 |
The full graded record for every source, good weeks and bad, is public on the grading pages.
What we’re watching
Totals. Spreads produced a 5-1 week across the STRONG and LEAN tiers, while STRONG totals went 2-6-0 — and they now sit at 18-29-1 (-12.67u) on the season. Heading into Week 10 we’re watching whether totals agreement among the top-weighted sources is holding up, and we’ll report how the totals market grades out next week.
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Season to date — the card
Live from the grading ledger, so it includes every game graded since this recap went up.
NFL consensus card
Graded Sep 13 – Nov 9 · 25 graded days| Tier | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| STRONG | 9-15 -6.75u | 8-5 +0.49u | 18-29-1 -12.67u |
| LEAN | 9-18 -9.91u | 3-2 +0.12u | 6-5 +0.57u |
FADE-WATCH (tracked, not staked, kept out of the card record): 4-3.
Every sport’s consensus record →
Flat 1-unit stakes at the line and price we posted before the game. STRONG and LEAN are tiered before the game starts and graded against the confirmed final the next morning. Updated automatically from the grading ledger.