NBA Sportsbook Consensus Grading Recap — Wednesday, November 11, 2026

BetMGM Model went 16-4 for +6.90 units on Wednesday’s 10-game NBA slate, the best day in a field of 46 experts and 201 graded picks. It cashed both sides of the Celtics-Raptors game (Celtics ML and Raptors +6.5), both Rockets bets against Golden State, Nets +4.5 in Brooklyn’s 34-point rout of New Orleans and Bucks +13.5 against the Lakers. That day pushes BetMGM Model to 23-7 (+8.80u) with us and over the 15-decided-pick line, so it now carries weight in the consensus.

Winners and Whiners – David Anicetti went 5-1 (+3.55u), hitting Celtics ML, Under 216.5 in Boston-Toronto, Over 229.5 in Brooklyn-New Orleans, Spurs ML and Over 238.5 in Chicago; he is now 21-12 (+6.00u) for the season with us. TheLines – Nick Crain went a perfect 3-0 (+2.76u) with Raptors +7.5, Pacers -3.5 and Trail Blazers ML (+110), moving to 14-12. Covers – Jon Metler went 7-3 (+2.99u) on moneylines, and StatsAlt – Kim Smith went 7-4 (+2.37u) and sits at 69-49-1 for the season.

The consensus card went 3-7 for -4.24u. STRONG went 1-7 (-6.09u) and LEAN went 2-0 (+1.85u). The FADE-WATCH Over 238.5 in Spurs-Bulls also cashed; it is tracked for context and carries no units. Every play is graded at the line we posted.

What actually happened

Two STRONG plays lost by half a point. In Houston, Stephen Curry left in the opening minutes with right abdominal soreness and was ruled out early in the second quarter, and Marcus Smart was ejected with a Flagrant 2 after throwing a punch. Houston led 111-93 before Golden State closed on a 15-4 run against the Rockets’ bench, and the 115-108 final left Warriors +6.5 half a point short. Losing Curry so early took away the main reason for the read, so that one counts as a voided premise rather than a wrong read. In Portland, the Thunder-Blazers rematch finished 118-108, a total of 226, half a point over the Under 225.5. Portland closed the first half on a 15-4 run, and Deni Avdija (28) and Damian Lillard (18) put the game away at the free-throw line.

The Pelicans ML (-186) was the night’s biggest miss. The card noted Trey Murphy III as upgraded to probable, but he missed the game with a knee injury. Brooklyn then shot 57% and made 20 of 41 threes, led 83-66 at halftime, and won 145-111. Michael Porter Jr. and Egor Demin, back from a bone bruise, scored 22 each. Murphy’s absence was a voided premise, but a 34-point loss is more than one player explains, so the consensus was also beaten on the merits.

The favorites won all three of the other STRONG spreads, just not by enough. Cleveland won 115-107 at Madison Square Garden behind 32 points from James Harden, who hit the go-ahead jumper and a three after New York had tied it with 5:35 left. Boston came back from 22 down to win 98-93 in Toronto, and Jayson Tatum’s free throws in the final minute put the Celtics ahead, but a 5-point win missed the -6.5. The Lakers led Milwaukee 119-97 before a late 13-0 Bucks run made it 123-112, leaving Lakers -13.5 two and a half points short. Indiana broke a 77-77 tie with a 14-0 run to open the fourth quarter and beat Washington 114-101, sinking Wizards +2.5. Pascal Siakam scored 28.

The plays that cashed: Orlando broke a 96-95 fourth-quarter deficit with an 18-3 run to win 123-108 in Utah, as Franz Wagner tied his career high with 38, covering Magic -3.5. The same Wizards-Pacers game finished at 215, well under 227.5 (LEAN). In Chicago, the Bulls scored 41 in the first quarter and led by 22, but the Spurs rallied behind Victor Wembanyama’s 32 points and 5 blocks to win 124-119. Bulls +14.5 (LEAN) covered easily, and the 243 total cleared the FADE-WATCH Over 238.5.

The card, by tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	Units
STRONG	1-7-0	13%	-6.09u
LEAN	2-0-0	100%	+1.85u
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	3-7-0	30%	-4.24u
FADE-WATCH (tracked, not staked)	1-0-0	100%	+0.00u

Every play is graded at the line we posted.

Every play

Result	Tier	Play	Line	Final	Grading
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Cavaliers @ Knicks — Knicks -4.5	-108 DraftKings	Cavaliers 115-107 Knicks	Knicks 107 -4.5 = 102.5 vs 115 → LOSS · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Celtics @ Raptors — Celtics -6.5	-103 DraftKings	Celtics 98-93 Raptors	Celtics 98 -6.5 = 91.5 vs 93 → LOSS · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Lakers @ Bucks — Lakers -13.5	-115 DraftKings	Lakers 123-112 Bucks	Lakers 123 -13.5 = 109.5 vs 112 → LOSS · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Wizards @ Pacers — Wizards +2.5	-107 DraftKings	Wizards 101-114 Pacers	Wizards 101 +2.5 = 103.5 vs 114 → LOSS · -1.00u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Magic @ Jazz — Magic -3.5	-110 DraftKings	Magic 123-108 Jazz	Magic 123 -3.5 = 119.5 vs 108 → WIN · +0.91u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Warriors @ Rockets — Warriors +6.5	-105 DraftKings	Warriors 108-115 Rockets	Warriors 108 +6.5 = 114.5 vs 115 → LOSS · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Thunder @ Trail Blazers — Under 225.5	-108 DraftKings	Thunder 108-118 Trail Blazers	108 + 118 = 226; Under 225.5 → LOSS · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Nets @ Pelicans — Pelicans ML	-186 DraftKings	Nets 145-111 Pelicans	Pelicans 111-145 → LOSS · -1.00u
✅ WIN	LEAN	Spurs @ Bulls — Bulls +14.5	-106 DraftKings	Spurs 124-119 Bulls	Bulls 119 +14.5 = 133.5 vs 124 → WIN · +0.94u
✅ WIN	LEAN	Wizards @ Pacers — Under 227.5	-110 DraftKings	Wizards 101-114 Pacers	101 + 114 = 215; Under 227.5 → WIN · +0.91u
✅ WIN	FADE-WATCH	Spurs @ Bulls — Over 238.5	-113 DraftKings	Spurs 124-119 Bulls	124 + 119 = 243; Over 238.5 → WIN · +0.00u

Best call: Magic -3.5 (STRONG): Orlando answered Utah’s 96-95 fourth-quarter lead with an 18-3 run, and Franz Wagner scored 38 in a 123-108 win, covering by 11.5 points.

Worst beat: Warriors +6.5 (STRONG) lost by half a point. Stephen Curry left in the opening minutes with abdominal soreness, Houston built an 18-point lead, and Golden State’s 15-4 closing run against the Rockets’ reserves made it 115-108, half a point short of a cover.

Expert scoreboard — Wednesday, Nov 11

We graded 201 picks from 46 experts and models. The field went 102-99 (50.7%) against the consensus card’s 3-7 (30%).

Top of the day	Pick	Record	Units
BetMGM Model	Raptors +6.5; Nets +4.5; Bucks +13.5	16-4-0	+6.90u
Winners and Whiners – David Anicetti	Over 238.5 Spurs-Bulls	5-1-0	+3.55u
Covers – Jon Metler	Trail Blazers ML	7-3-0	+2.99u
TheLines – Nick Crain	Raptors +7.5	3-0-0	+2.76u
StatsAlt – Kim Smith	Under 226.5 Thunder-Blazers	7-4-0	+2.37u

Pickswise – Napier Montgomery (Under 226.5 in Thunder-Blazers, Bulls +14.5), StatsAlt – Cameron Ross (Spurs ML, Over 238.5) and Sports Mole – Adepoju Marvellous (Rockets ML, Over 220) each went 2-0. Only three experts had the Nets +4.5: BetMGM Model, Doc’s Sports – Josh Schonwald and Pick Dawgz – Randy Chambers. Dimers Model was the only expert on Cavaliers +3.5. The bottom of the day: Covers – Quinn Allen went 2-8 (-6.18u), Predictem – Joe Jensen 1-6 (-5.07u), Picks and Parlays – Eddie Kline 2-6 (-4.18u) and Sports Mole – Vladimir Kovacevic 0-4 (-4.00u). The full field split almost evenly at 102-99.

Season leaders (NBA, graded with us)	Record	Units	Consensus weight
Picks and Parlays – Kim Smith	87-53	+18.22u	1.25
Cappers Picks – Tamberlyn Richardson	33-15	+14.23u	1.26
HispanosNBA – Freddy Diaz	28-9	+12.78u	1.31
BetMGM Model	23-7	+8.80u	1.28
Doc's Sports – Guy Bruhn	30-19	+8.30u	1.14
WagerTalk – Kyle Kargel	27-16	+7.76u	1.15
Doc's Sports – Tony Sink	31-22	+6.25u	1.10

How this changes the card

BetMGM Model (23-7) and statz.ai (15-5) passed 15 decided picks and now carry weight in the consensus, at 1.28 and 1.19. Winners and Whiners – David Anicetti rose from 1.07 to 1.14 (21-12), and Covers – Jon Metler from 1.00 to 1.04 (60-51). Covers – Quinn Allen dropped from 0.93 to 0.83 (17-25), Sports Mole – Vladimir Kovacevic from 1.12 to 1.04 (14-11) and Predictem – Joe Jensen from 0.90 to 0.84 (43-52). Cappers Picks – Tamberlyn Richardson slipped from 1.31 to 1.26 after an 0-3 night but is still among the highest weights at 33-15. These weights apply to future cards, not to Wednesday’s.

Season to date

Tier	All	Spread	Moneyline	Total	Units
STRONG	75-59	33-26	14-5	28-28	+3.36u
LEAN	23-21	15-13	1-4	7-4	-0.73u
FADE-WATCH (not staked)	3-3	2-2	0-1	1-0	—
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	98-80				+2.63u

Every card, every sport: the full consensus record.

All 10 games went final in regulation. Rows with no listed price are graded at -110. Where an expert’s line field held only a price, the number is taken from the pick itself. The FADE-WATCH play is tracked and carries no units.

Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.