NHL Sportsbook Consensus Grading Recap — Wednesday, November 11, 2026

Kim Smith of Picks and Parlays ran the table on Wednesday night, going 5-1 for +3.13 units. Smith hit the Lightning moneyline and the Over in Tampa Bay’s 8-3 win in Buffalo, Vegas on the moneyline and the Over against Utah, and the Penguins in their shootout win in San Jose. That moves Smith to 63-44 (+3.72u) on the season with us, one of the most heavily weighted voices in our NHL consensus.

Thom Cunningham (Lineups.com) went 2-1 (+0.76u) with Vegas and the Over in the 5-3 Golden Knights win, and is now 3-1 with us. Mike Fink (Winners and Whiners) had the Utah-Vegas Over for +0.95u, Bleacher Nation and Jon Yaremko (Pickswise) both cashed the Lightning-Sabres Over, and Nick Martin (Action Network) and Tony Sink (Doc’s Sports) both took the Rangers at -136/-135 in Calgary and got paid. Martin is now 8-3 (+3.93u) with us; Sink is 16-12 (+1.70u).

The consensus card went 3-6 for -3.38u. STRONG 2-4 (-2.33u), LEAN 1-2 (-1.05u). Every play is graded at the line we posted.

What actually happened

The STRONG Over in Buffalo was never in doubt by the end. Tampa Bay led 4-0 in the second, Buffalo clawed back to 4-3 early in the third, and then Nikita Kucherov scored a natural hat trick in the third period. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen was pulled after five goals on 14 shots, and the game finished 8-3, 11 goals against a 6.5 total. In Vegas, the Golden Knights scored twice on the power play (Jack Eichel and Victor Olofsson) and Ivan Barbashev added two more in a three-goal second period. Brett Howden’s goal with 9:41 left made it 5-3, which cashed both the STRONG Golden Knights moneyline and the LEAN Over 6.5.

In Calgary the STRONG Flames moneyline ran into Joonas Korpisalo. He was back from injured reserve and made 29 saves on 30 shots, while Mika Zibanejad scored twice in the second. Calgary got within 2-1 on an Adam Klapka power-play goal, and Tyler Kartye’s empty-netter at 19:53 settled it 3-1. In Anaheim, the card had flagged that Nashville might start its backup on the second night of a back-to-back, and it did. Annunen, making his fourth straight start, stopped 27 of 29, and Nashville won its sixth straight, 4-2, with Steven Stamkos scoring the insurance goal. Laurent Brossoit stopped 18 of 22 and took his first loss in five starts. The STRONG Ducks moneyline was beaten on the merits.

The two low-scoring games did the rest. Edmonton led the Flyers 2-0 on two Zach Hyman goals, Philadelphia tied it with a power-play goal and Travis Sanheim’s goal in the third, and Evan Bouchard won it 47 seconds into overtime. A 3-2 overtime win means the STRONG Oilers -1.5 fell short and the LEAN Over 6.5 landed on 5. Edmonton’s Tristan Jarry made 30 saves, not the projected Devon Levi. In San Jose, Pittsburgh led 2-0 before Macklin Celebrini and Mason Marchment tied it late in the third. Sergei Murashov (34 saves) and Yaroslav Askarov (33 saves) held it there through overtime, and Ben Kindel’s shootout goal was the only one either side scored. The shootout counts as one goal, so the game is graded 3-2 Penguins: five goals sank the STRONG Over 6.5 and the LEAN Sharks moneyline. Murashov started in place of the projected Arturs Silovs, but the game was decided by two good goalie nights, not a weak one.

The card, by tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	Units
STRONG	2-4-0	33%	-2.33u
LEAN	1-2-0	33%	-1.05u
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	3-6-0	33%	-3.38u

Every play is graded at the line we posted.

Every play

Result	Tier	Play	Line	Final	Grading
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Rangers @ Flames — Flames ML +120	ML +120 DraftKings	Rangers 3-1 Flames	Flames lose 1-3; ❌ · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Flyers @ Oilers — Oilers -1.5	-1.5 (+124) DraftKings	Oilers 3-2 Flyers (OT)	Oilers 3-1.5 = 1.5 vs 2; ❌ · -1.00u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Lightning @ Sabres — Over 6.5	6.5 (-115) DraftKings	Lightning 8-3 Sabres	8 + 3 = 11; Over 6.5 ✅ · +0.87u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Predators @ Ducks — Ducks ML -148	ML -148 DraftKings	Predators 4-2 Ducks	Ducks lose 2-4; ❌ · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Penguins @ Sharks — Over 6.5	6.5 (-130) DraftKings	Penguins 3-2 Sharks (SO)	3 + 2 = 5; Over 6.5 ❌ · -1.00u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Mammoth @ Golden Knights — Golden Knights ML -125	ML -125 DraftKings	Golden Knights 5-3 Mammoth	Golden Knights win 5-3; ✅ · +0.80u
❌ LOSS	LEAN	Penguins @ Sharks — Sharks ML +114	ML +114 DraftKings	Penguins 3-2 Sharks (SO)	Sharks lose 2-3; ❌ · -1.00u
✅ WIN	LEAN	Mammoth @ Golden Knights — Over 6.5	6.5 (-105) DraftKings	Golden Knights 5-3 Mammoth	3 + 5 = 8; Over 6.5 ✅ · +0.95u
❌ LOSS	LEAN	Flyers @ Oilers — Over 6.5	6.5 (+110) DraftKings	Oilers 3-2 Flyers (OT)	2 + 3 = 5; Over 6.5 ❌ · -1.00u

Best call: Lightning-Sabres Over 6.5 (STRONG, 4 of 4 experts). The card leaned on two goalies out of form, and the game finished with 11 goals. Luukkonen was pulled after five goals on 14 shots, and Kucherov’s third-period hat trick took it from a 4-3 game to 8-3.

Worst beat: Sharks ML +114 (LEAN). San Jose came back from 2-0 down on goals by Celebrini and Marchment late in the third, and Askarov made 33 saves, but Ben Kindel scored the only goal in the shootout and Pittsburgh took it 3-2.

Expert scoreboard — Wednesday, Nov 11

We graded 81 picks from 32 experts and models. The field went 33-48 (40.7%) against the consensus card’s 3-6 (33%).

Top of the day	Pick	Record	Units
Picks and Parlays – Kim Smith	Lightning ML -130; Over 6.5 TB-BUF; Golden Knights ML -125; Over 6.5 UTA-VGK; Penguins ML -135	5-1-0	+3.13u
Lineups.com – Thom Cunningham	Golden Knights ML -124; Over 6.5 UTA-VGK -105	2-1-0	+0.76u
Winners and Whiners – Mike Fink	Over 6.5 UTA-VGK -105	1-0-0	+0.95u
Bleacher Nation	Over 6.5 TB-BUF -115	1-0-0	+0.87u
Pickswise – Jon Yaremko	Over 6.5 TB-BUF -120	1-0-0	+0.83u

Also on the right side: Tokyo Brandon (WagerTalk) on the Lightning ML at -122 (+0.82u), Nikos Lagouretos (Sports Chat Place) on Vegas at -125 (+0.80u), and Nick Martin (Action Network) and Tony Sink (Doc’s Sports) on the Rangers ML (+0.74u each). BetMGM went 3-3 but came out -1.30u, because its three +1.5 winners (Flyers, Predators, Sharks) were all priced at -145 or shorter. At the bottom of the day: Tyler Williams (ScoresAndStats) 0-4 (-4.00u), Randy Chambers (Sports Chat Place) 0-3 (-3.00u), and The Hockeynomist 5-7 (-3.08u) across a 12-pick card.

Season leaders (NHL, graded with us)	Record	Units	Consensus weight
CBS Sports	87-51-2	+15.95u	1.28
iHeart Model	116-77-2	+15.51u	1.22
Doc's Sports – Josh Schonwald	20-12	+7.80u	1.12
Sportsgambler – Robert Carter	19-10	+6.73u	1.15
RotoWire – Daniel Dobish	10-2	+6.33u	1.00 (12 of 15 decided)
Pickswise – Mark Lammey	15-6	+6.21u	1.17
Doc's Sports – Parlays Pundit	13-9	+4.09u	1.06

How this changes the card

Kim Smith (Picks and Parlays, 63-44) carries a 1.15 weight in our NHL consensus, behind only CBS Sports (1.28) and the iHeart Model (1.22) and tied with Robert Carter (Sportsgambler, 19-10). At the other end, Randy Chambers (Sports Chat Place, 15-26) sits at 0.78, and Dimers Model (37-48) and Tyler Williams (ScoresAndStats, 27-37) sit at 0.81. BetMGM is one decided pick from the 15 needed to be rated (8-6), and Nick Martin (Action Network, 8-3) is four away. Until they reach 15, both stay at a neutral 1.00 and have no effect on the consensus.

Season to date

Tier	All	Puck line	Moneyline	Total	Units
STRONG	55-41	10-4	29-21	16-16	+2.62u
LEAN	20-30	3-3	8-13	9-14	-11.91u
FADE-WATCH (not staked)	1-3	0-1	1-2	—	—
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	75-71				-9.29u

Every card, every sport: the full consensus record.

Penguins-Sharks was 2-2 after overtime and Pittsburgh won the shootout 1-0. Sportsbooks count the shootout as one goal for the winner, so it is graded 3-2 Penguins (5 goals). Oilers-Flyers ended 3-2 in overtime, and overtime counts for every market. Expert rows listed without a sportsbook price (prediction-market only, or a line with no price) are graded at -110. Expert lines are graded at the number each expert posted, for example Over 7, Over 6, Over 5.5 and Under 5.5.

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