NBA Sportsbook Consensus Grading Recap — Thursday, November 12, 2026

Ultimate Capper’s Jay Cooper led Thursday’s field at 3-1 for +1.73u, cashing 76ers -10, Timberwolves -6 and Hornets +6.5 (his season with us: 67-74-1). statz.ai went a perfect 4-0 (+1.36u) on moneylines, Pistons, 76ers, Timberwolves and Suns, and is now 19-5 (+2.45u) on the season. The BetMGM Model went 6-2 (+1.14u) and climbs to 29-9 (+9.94u), the best win rate among rated experts.

Doc’s Sports’ Guy Bruhn hit his only play, Wizards +10.5 (1-0, +0.91u; 31-19, +9.21u on the season), Action Network’s Brandon Kravitz cashed Timberwolves -5.5 at +102, and NBAManiacs went 4-1 (+0.86u). We graded 111 picks from 39 experts across four games; the field finished 55-56.

The consensus card went 1-4 for -3.12u. All five plays were STRONG: STRONG 1-4 (-3.12u); spreads 1-2 (-1.12u), totals 0-2 (-2.00u). Every play is graded at the line we posted.

What actually happened

Pistons 144, Wizards 140 (2OT). The STRONG play on Pistons -10.5 and the STRONG Under 220.5 both lost in a game that was tied 121-121 after regulation, so the Under was already beaten before overtime began. Cade Cunningham scored a career-high 52 with 11 assists and no turnovers; Trae Young’s buzzer-beating three forced the first overtime and rookie AJ Dybantsa’s jumper with under a second left forced the second. Anthony Davis had 30 and 15 before fouling out. Nothing voided the premise; a Washington team on no rest simply matched Detroit shot for shot, and the consensus was beaten on the merits.

Timberwolves 133, Mavericks 94. Timberwolves -5.5 cashed by 33.5 points. Minnesota shot 61% in the first half, opened the third quarter on a 17-4 run and won that quarter 36-17; Bones Hyland scored 24 off the bench, while Cooper Flagg was held to 12 and Kyrie Irving to 10. The same rout sank the STRONG Under 225.5: Minnesota’s 133 alone pushed the total to 227, 1.5 points over the posted number. Experts who took it at 226.5 lost too, but the 227.5 and 229.5 tickets cashed.

Suns 101, Hornets 96. Suns -6.5 lost by a point and a half. Phoenix blew a 17-point lead to a 33-11 Charlotte run, then opened the fourth on a 20-10 burst. Devin Booker (30 points) hit a three for 97-91 with about 24 seconds left, and after the Hornets got back within two he closed it with a steal and two free throws. Charlotte committed 25 turnovers, which Phoenix turned into 38 points, but it still covered. That was ordinary late-game variance, not a voided premise.

Off the card, the 76ers beat the Raptors 123-112 behind Tyrese Maxey’s 27, which landed exactly between the common spread numbers: 76ers -10 and -10.5 cashed, Raptors +10.5 lost by half a point. Embiid had a first-quarter knee scare but returned the same quarter and finished with 20.

The card, by tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	Units
STRONG	1-4-0	20%	-3.12u
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	1-4-0	20%	-3.12u

Every play is graded at the line we posted.

Every play

Result	Tier	Play	Line	Final	Grading
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Pistons @ Wizards — Pistons -10.5	-112 DraftKings	Pistons 144-140 Wizards (2OT)	Pistons by 4; 144 – 10.5 = 133.5 < 140; does not cover · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Pistons @ Wizards — Under 220.5	-108 DraftKings	Pistons 144-140 Wizards (2OT)	144 + 140 = 284 > 220.5 (242 at end of regulation); Under loses · -1.00u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Mavericks @ Timberwolves — Timberwolves -5.5	-114 DraftKings	Timberwolves 133-94 Mavericks	Timberwolves by 39; 133 – 5.5 = 127.5 > 94; covers · +0.88u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Mavericks @ Timberwolves — Under 225.5	-108 DraftKings	Timberwolves 133-94 Mavericks	133 + 94 = 227 > 225.5; Under loses · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Hornets @ Suns — Suns -6.5	-108 DraftKings	Suns 101-96 Hornets	Suns by 5; 101 – 6.5 = 94.5 < 96; does not cover · -1.00u

Best call: Timberwolves -5.5 (STRONG, 10 of 14 experts) cashed by 33.5 points. Without Anthony Edwards, Minnesota shot 61% in the first half, ran away with a 36-17 third quarter, and got 24 from Bones Hyland off the bench in a 133-94 rout.

Worst beat: Suns -6.5 (STRONG) lost by a point and a half. Phoenix led by 17, gave it all back on a 33-11 Charlotte run, and won by only five after the Hornets cut a 97-91 lead to two in the final seconds.

Expert scoreboard — Thursday, Nov 12

We graded 111 picks from 39 experts and models. The field went 55-56 (49.5%) against the consensus card’s 1-4 (20%).

Top of the day	Pick	Record	Units
Ultimate Capper – Jay Cooper	76ers -10; Timberwolves -6; Hornets +6.5	3-1-0	+1.73u
statz.ai	Pistons ML; 76ers ML; Timberwolves ML; Suns ML	4-0-0	+1.36u
BetMGM Model	Wizards +10.5; Hornets +6.5; four moneylines	6-2-0	+1.14u
Action Network – Brandon Kravitz	Timberwolves -5.5 (+102)	1-0-0	+1.02u
Doc's Sports – Guy Bruhn	Wizards +10.5	1-0-0	+0.91u

Also profitable: NBAManiacs 4-1 (+0.86u), Dimers Model 2-1 (+0.82u), iHeart Model 6-3 (+0.81u), Winners and Whiners – David Anicetti 3-1 (+0.60u), AM 1300 The Zone Model 4-2 (+0.54u) and StatsAlt – Kim Smith 4-1 (+0.36u). Bottom of the day: Picks and Parlays – Eddie Kline 2-6 (-4.16u), Sports Mole – Adepoju Marvellous 1-4 (-3.09u) and Covers – Jon Metler 1-3 (-2.57u).

Season leaders (NBA, graded with us)	Record	Units	Consensus weight
Picks and Parlays – Kim Smith	87-53	+18.22u	1.25
Cappers Picks – Tamberlyn Richardson	33-15	+14.23u	1.26
HispanosNBA – Freddy Diaz	28-9	+12.78u	1.31
BetMGM Model	29-9	+9.94u	1.32
Doc's Sports – Guy Bruhn	31-19	+9.21u	1.15
WagerTalk – Kyle Kargel	27-16	+7.76u	1.15
Winners and Whiners – David Anicetti	24-13	+6.60u	1.16

How this changes the card

The best results moved some experts up in the consensus weights. BetMGM Model rises from 1.28 to 1.32 (29-9), statz.ai from 1.19 to 1.26 (19-5), Winners and Whiners – David Anicetti from 1.14 to 1.16 (24-13), and StatsAlt – Kim Smith from 1.15 to 1.17 (73-50-1). Doc’s Sports – Tony Sink slips from 1.10 to 1.07 after an 0-2 day (31-24). Picks and Parlays – Eddie Kline sits at 0.90 (38-42) and Ultimate Capper – Jay Cooper at 0.87 (67-74-1) despite his winning day; both still count for less than a neutral expert. 58 experts have reached the 15 decided picks needed to be rated.

Season to date

Tier	All	Spread	Moneyline	Total	Units
STRONG	76-63	34-28	14-5	28-30	+0.24u
LEAN	23-21	15-13	1-4	7-4	-0.73u
FADE-WATCH (not staked)	3-3	2-2	0-1	1-0	—
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	99-84				-0.49u

Every card, every sport: the full consensus record.

Pistons-Wizards went to double overtime; overtime counts for every market. Expert picks listed without odds were graded at -110. All 111 expert rows were graded and none were rejected.

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