NHL Sportsbook Consensus Grading Recap — Thursday, November 12, 2026

Guy Bruhn of Doc’s Sports went 3-0 for +3.24u on Thursday, and all three of his wins were plus-money underdogs: Canadiens (+100) in Boston, Senators (+100) in overtime against Colorado, and Blackhawks (+124) in overtime against Buffalo. That puts him at 16-17 with us this season. Casey Whitmore of TheRx went 5-3 for +2.22u. His best call was Lightning -1.5 at +200 in Columbus, and he also hit the Under in that game, Jets +1.5 and the Over in Dallas. Josh Schonwald of Doc’s Sports went 2-1 for +1.59u on Jets (+154) and Islanders (+105). He is now 22-13, +9.39u with us, one of the best records in the NHL field.

Several others had perfect days. Jordan Harlow (TheRx) went 2-0 (+1.55u) on Wild ML and the Over in Toronto. David Anicetti (Picks and Parlays) went 2-0 (+1.33u) on Panthers ML and the Over in Florida, and is 7-3 with us. Jay Cooper (Ultimate Capper) went 5-5 for +1.61u, because his five wins included four plus-money sides.

The consensus card went 7-7 for -1.42u. STRONG went 5-6 (-2.19u) and LEAN went 2-1 (+0.77u). By market, moneylines went 3-4 (-1.56u) and totals 4-3 (+0.14u). Every play is graded at the line we posted.

What actually happened

The three STRONG Overs all cashed. Winnipeg trailed Dallas 2-0 after the first, then scored the game’s last six goals in an 8-3 win. Jake Oettinger was pulled early in the third, and Mark Scheifele and Mercer scored twice each. Florida rallied from 4-1 down to beat Detroit 5-4: Anton Lundell scored twice in the third, including the winner with 2:40 to play. The Islanders beat the Kings 5-2, with Bo Horvat adding an empty-net goal. The STRONG Wild moneyline also won. Matt Boldy scored a hat trick and Jesper Wallstedt made 26 saves in a 5-2 win in Toronto, as the card’s write-up projected. Tampa Bay won 3-1 in Columbus on Brandon Hagel’s two goals, which settled the STRONG Lightning moneyline and the LEAN Under together.

Three of the STRONG losses came from games that went the other way on the merits. Montreal scored the first five goals in Boston and chased Jeremy Swayman in the second period. Jacob Fowler made 30 saves for the Canadiens, which sank both the Bruins moneyline and the Under (5-2, seven goals). In Toronto, the Under 6.5 had looked safe at 2-2 after two periods. Boldy’s third-period goals and Danila Yurov’s empty-netter at 19:03 pushed the total to seven, one over the number.

In Chicago, Buffalo started Alex Lyon, his first start of the season off injured reserve, on the second night of a back-to-back. Ryan Donato scored at 3:12 of overtime, ending the Blackhawks’ six-game losing streak and settling the Sabres moneyline. In Utah, neither team scored through 65 minutes. Joel Hofer (29 saves) and Karel Vejmelka (22) both posted shutouts, and the Blues won in the eighth round of the shootout. That beat the Mammoth moneyline and left the STRONG Over 6.5 at one graded goal. The card flagged both goalies as unconfirmed but did not expect the shutouts.

On the LEAN plays, Ottawa beat Colorado 4-3 in overtime on Shane Pinto’s second goal of the night. Colorado lost Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar to lower-body injuries in the second period. The Capitals were level with New Jersey at 2-2 after two periods, but the Devils scored three times in the third, including an empty-netter, and won 5-2.

The card, by tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	Units
STRONG	5-6-0	45%	-2.19u
LEAN	2-1-0	67%	+0.77u
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	7-7-0	50%	-1.42u

Every play is graded at the line we posted.

Every play

Result	Tier	Play	Line	Final	Grading
✅ WIN	STRONG	Wild @ Maple Leafs — Wild ML	-170 DraftKings	Wild 5-2 Maple Leafs	Wild 5-2 Maple Leafs → Wild win · +0.59u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Sabres @ Blackhawks — Sabres ML	-148 DraftKings	Blackhawks 3-2 Sabres (OT)	Blackhawks 3-2 Sabres (OT) → Sabres lose · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Canadiens @ Bruins — Bruins ML	-120 DraftKings	Canadiens 5-2 Bruins	Canadiens 5-2 Bruins → Bruins lose · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Blues @ Mammoth — Mammoth ML	-130 DraftKings	Blues 1-0 Mammoth (SO; 0-0 after OT)	Blues 1-0 Mammoth (SO; 0-0 after OT) → Mammoth lose · -1.00u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Lightning @ Blue Jackets — Lightning ML	-118 DraftKings	Lightning 3-1 Blue Jackets	Lightning 3-1 Blue Jackets → Lightning win · +0.85u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Wild @ Maple Leafs — Under 6.5 (Wild @ Maple Leafs)	-115 DraftKings	Wild 5-2 Maple Leafs	Wild 5-2 Maple Leafs → 5 + 2 = 7; Under 6.5 LOSS · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Canadiens @ Bruins — Under 6.5 (Canadiens @ Bruins)	-125 DraftKings	Canadiens 5-2 Bruins	Canadiens 5-2 Bruins → 5 + 2 = 7; Under 6.5 LOSS · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Blues @ Mammoth — Over 6.5 (Blues @ Mammoth)	+105 DraftKings	Blues 1-0 Mammoth (SO; 0-0 after OT)	Blues 1-0 Mammoth (SO; 0-0 after OT) → 1 + 0 = 1; Over 6.5 LOSS · -1.00u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Jets @ Stars — Over 5.5 (Jets @ Stars)	-120 DraftKings	Jets 8-3 Stars	Jets 8-3 Stars → 8 + 3 = 11; Over 5.5 WIN · +0.83u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Red Wings @ Panthers — Over 5.5 (Red Wings @ Panthers)	-135 DraftKings	Panthers 5-4 Red Wings	Panthers 5-4 Red Wings → 4 + 5 = 9; Over 5.5 WIN · +0.74u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Islanders @ Kings — Over 5.5 (Islanders @ Kings)	-125 DraftKings	Islanders 5-2 Kings	Islanders 5-2 Kings → 5 + 2 = 7; Over 5.5 WIN · +0.80u
✅ WIN	LEAN	Avalanche @ Senators — Senators ML	+100 DraftKings	Senators 4-3 Avalanche (OT)	Senators 4-3 Avalanche (OT) → Senators win · +1.00u
❌ LOSS	LEAN	Capitals @ Devils — Capitals ML	+124 DraftKings	Devils 5-2 Capitals	Devils 5-2 Capitals → Capitals lose · -1.00u
✅ WIN	LEAN	Lightning @ Blue Jackets — Under 6.5 (Lightning @ Blue Jackets)	-130 DraftKings	Lightning 3-1 Blue Jackets	Lightning 3-1 Blue Jackets → 3 + 1 = 4; Under 6.5 WIN · +0.77u

Best call: Over 5.5 in Jets @ Stars (-120), a STRONG play backed by 4 of 4 experts, went over by more than five goals. Dallas led 2-0, then Winnipeg scored eight of the last nine goals and forced Oettinger out early in the third, for 11 goals in total.

Worst beat: Under 6.5 in Wild @ Maple Leafs (-115), a STRONG play, was tied 2-2 after two periods and stayed on track until Minnesota scored twice early in the third. Danila Yurov’s empty-net goal at 19:03 made it 5-2, seven goals, one goal more than the Under allowed.

Expert scoreboard — Thursday, Nov 12

We graded 145 picks from 40 experts and models. The field went 72-73 (49.7%) against the consensus card’s 7-7 (50%).

Top of the day	Pick	Record	Units
Doc's Sports – Guy Bruhn	Canadiens ML +100; Senators ML +100; Blackhawks ML +124	3-0-0	+3.24u
TheRx – Casey Whitmore	Lightning -1.5 +200; Jets +1.5 -170; three totals	5-3-0	+2.22u
Ultimate Capper – Jay Cooper	Senators; Jets; Blackhawks; Islanders ML; Devils -1.5 +173	5-5-0	+1.61u
Doc's Sports – Josh Schonwald	Jets ML +154; Islanders ML +105	2-1-0	+1.59u
TheRx – Jordan Harlow	Wild ML -172; Over 6.5 -103	2-0-0	+1.55u

Also on the right side: David Anicetti (Picks and Parlays) 2-0, +1.33u. Braden Morrison (Last Word on Sports) 2-1, +1.10u. Wags Wins and Nick Martin (Action Network) 1-0 each on the Senators. iHeart Model 15-10, +0.99u. Clinton Bell and Patrick Ryan (Capper’s Picks) 1-0 each. At the bottom of the day: Kim Smith (Picks and Parlays) 1-7, -6.41u. CBS Sports 8-12, -5.42u. Randy Chambers (Pick Dawgz) 1-4, -2.95u. The full field went 72-73.

Season leaders (NHL, graded with us)	Record	Units	Consensus weight
iHeart Model	131-87-2	+16.50u	1.23
CBS Sports	95-63-2	+10.53u	1.21
Doc's Sports – Josh Schonwald	22-13	+9.39u	1.13
Sportsgambler – Robert Carter	19-10	+6.73u	1.15
RotoWire – Daniel Dobish	10-2	+6.33u	1.00 (12 of 15 decided)
Pickswise – Mark Lammey	15-6	+6.21u	1.17
Action Network – Nick Martin	9-3	+4.93u	1.00 (12 of 15 decided)

How this changes the card

CBS Sports (now 95-63-2) and iHeart Model (131-87-2) still carry the most weight in the NHL consensus, at 1.21 and 1.23. CBS dropped from 1.28 after an 8-12 day. Kim Smith (Picks and Parlays, 64-51) fell from 1.15 to 1.08. Guy Bruhn’s 3-0 day moved him from 0.90 to 0.95, and Casey Whitmore went from 0.87 to 0.92. Nick Martin (Action Network, 9-3) is the closest unrated expert, three decided picks short of the 15 needed to qualify.

Season to date

Tier	All	Puck line	Moneyline	Total	Units
STRONG	60-47	10-4	31-24	19-19	+0.43u
LEAN	22-31	3-3	9-14	10-14	-11.14u
FADE-WATCH (not staked)	1-3	0-1	1-2	—	—
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	82-78				-10.71u

Every card, every sport: the full consensus record.

Blues-Mammoth was 0-0 after overtime. St. Louis won the shootout, so it is graded 1-0 (total 1). Sabres-Blackhawks and Avalanche-Senators were decided in overtime, which counts for every market. Expert totals logged without a price (CBS Sports, iHeart Model, Dimers Model) are graded at -110.

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