We have a stacked field this week for the Abu Dhabi HSBC Champions, even with Rory’s unfortunate WD. Dustin Johnson, Henrik Stenson, Rickie Fowler, Branden Grace, Thomas Pieters, Danny Willett, Martin Kaymer, and Matthew Fitzpatrick are all here. Most of Europe’s top players are here, in fact.
Abu Dhabi Golf Club is one of the longest courses on the European Tour, measuring nearly 7,600 yards. But it’s in the desert and plays firm, so the longer hitters won’t have much trouble at all. I do think there’s a noticeable advantage for the long hitters, which we’ve seen over the years. There’s heavy bunkering around the golf course, so sand play (and some accuracy metrics) may come into play. As usual for European Tour DFS, I tend to target birdie makers who hit a ton of greens.
We have plenty of course history to draw upon, which should make our selections pretty straightforward this week. Desert golf is its own unique challenge, so the same players tend to pop up year-in and year-out. Guys like Rory, Grace, Kaymer, and Joost Luiten have exceptional track records at this event. Other players, like Thomas Pieters, George Coetzee, and Tyrrell Hatton have begun building similar resumes.
Key Stats:
- Driving Distance
- Greens in Regulation
- Birdie or Better %
- Scrambling
Let’s take a look at my favorite European Tour players this week:
The Favourites:
Dustin Johnson ($11,500) – We got a look at 2017 DJ at the Tournament of Champions, where he was solid. Johnson ranked 1st in scrambling and 6th in greens in regulation in Kapalua. He makes his tournament debut in Abu Dhabi, at a course that may lend itself to bombers. Plenty of par-5s to capitalize for DJ. If he brings his A-game with the putter, DJ is the man to beat in this field.
Henrik Stenson ($11,100) – 2016 was a career year for Stenson, who won his 1st major championship and an Olympic silver medal. He has a weird record at this track, with three top-3 finishes sandwiching a whole bunch of missed cuts. Pretty strange for the Iceman. He’s a new player now, but Stenson has shown over the years that he doesn’t always bring his best game to the desert.
Branden Grace ($9,500) – I’m a bit worried about Grace traveling from Hawaii, but I’m also glad he got a solid week of golf under his belt at the Sony Open (after a dis-Grace-ful performance at the Tournament of Champions). He has a great track record in the desert, with top-5 finishes here in 2013 and 2016. If Grace finds the form he had early in 2016, he has the ability to run away from this field.
Thomas Pieters ($8,800) – Pieters should have won this event a year ago, if not for Rickie Fowler holing out twice on Sunday to beat him by a shot. Pieters finished 4th here in 2015, to go along with the runner-up last season. He’s a bomber and dynamic scorer who will find his way onto nearly all of my DFS rosters this week. If his putter stays hot, he’s going to be a force this weekend.
Tyrrell Hatton ($8,100) – Hatton broke out last season on the European Tour, punctuated by his dominant win at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. He’s an elite ball-striker, and has shown the ability to play every shot in the bag. He even popped off a couple top-10 finishes in majors. At this venue, he’s posted 6th and 10th place finishes, which I think he can improve upon this week. Along with Pieters, Hatton could steal this one from the top studs.
Martin Kaymer ($8,000) – Kaymer has the rare distinction of blowing a 10-shot Sunday lead at this event in 2015. That may seem bad, but keep in mind that he’s won here three times and was runner-up in 2009. Kaymer is King in Abu Dhabi, and I expect another top-10 this week. His game isn’t where it was a couple of years ago, but the positive memories on these fairways and greens should bring out the best in the German. He’s sneaky long off the tee, and can get dialed in with his irons as well as anyone in this field.
Danny Willett ($7,700) – It was a whirlwind 2016 for Willett, from his Masters win to his summer collapse and illness. He’s been traveling a ton, fulfilling media obligations, fighting a back injury, and not all that interested in playing golf. I think we’ll see a rejuvenated Danny Willett, which he showed flashes of in South Africa last month. He has a spotty record at this event, but has won the Dubai Desert Classic, showing that he can play well in the desert. He’s significantly underpriced this week, in my opinion.
George Coetzee ($7,400) – A rare MC in his homeland last week won’t deter me from using Coetzee. He’s another player who makes his mark in the desert. At this course, Coetzee has finished in the top-10 three times in five tries. Coetzee could battle Branden Grace for low South African this week.
Alejandro Canizares ($7,400) – This isn’t the typical course type where I’d target Canizares, but I can’t overlook his course history. In the last three seasons here, he’s on an upswing in trajectory: 49th, 12th, and 5th a year ago. He’s also played well at the Dubai Desert Classic, so maybe this part of the world fits the Spaniard’s eye. He’s a great scrambler and sand player, which should help around these bunkered greens.
Peter Uihlein ($7,000) – The prodigy is back! Well, maybe not completely healed from the injury, but Uihlein played great with a 7th place finish last week in South Africa. The Oklahoma State product is close friends with Rickie Fowler (they both live in South Florida now), so he could have a fun, stress-free week. In 2015, he was 4th after the second round before faltering to a 31st place finish. He’s a bomber who can make a ton of birdies.
Sleepers:
Peter Hanson – 4 top-10s (and two 11th place finishes) here.
Ian Poulter – 3 top-10s here, and is recommitting himself to his game.
Tom Lewis – he’s in great form since November, 18th last week in South Africa.
Johan Carlsson – 7th and 16th place finishes here. Loves desert golf.
Chris Wood – severely underpriced due to injuries, a bomber who can win anywhere.
Richard Bland – MC in South Africa aside, he’s significantly underpriced.
Rikard Karlberg – breakout season in 2016, and too talented for such a low price.
Fabrizio Zanotti – Zanotti loves desert golf, and finished 26th here a year ago.
Alexander Bjork – super consistent so far this year, 7th place last week in South Africa.
Good luck this week!
Ryan
