CFB Sportsbook Consensus Grading Recap — Friday, November 6, 2026

Andre Cherry (College Football News) and Andrew Margolick (College Football News) both went 3-0 for +2.73u on Friday night, cashing SMU -6.5, Illinois +4.5 and New Mexico -9.5. Cherry is now 56-42 (+9.04u) in our CFB ledger; Margolick moves to 47-51.

Joe Jensen (Predictem) went 4-1 for +2.64u — SMU -6, Under 49.5 in Nebraska-Illinois, New Mexico -9.5 and TCU +8.5 all hit. Colby Marchio (Covers) went 3-1 (+1.86u) with Illinois +4.5, the Under 50.5 and TCU +7.5 at +104, and is now 29-17 (+10.85u) on the season. Chris Amberley (SportsBettingDime) also went 3-1 (+1.70u) — East Carolina -2.5, Illinois +4.5, Under 38.5 — to move to 17-9 (+6.39u).

The consensus card went 4-4 for -0.40u. STRONG 3-3 (-0.33u), LEAN 1-1 (-0.07u). The FADE-WATCH Under 38.5 in New Mexico-Nevada also landed (tracked at 0 units). Every play is graded at the line we posted.

What actually happened

SMU 51, Virginia Tech 28. SMU scored on its first eight drives and piled up 569 yards, the most Virginia Tech has allowed this season. Kevin Jennings threw for 350 yards and four touchdowns, and a Marques White forced fumble set up a 46-yard score to Yamir Knight on the next snap. The STRONG play on SMU -6.5 covered by 16.5. The same scoring pace sank the LEAN Under 56.5 — 79 points went up, and nothing unusual drove it: the Under was beaten on the merits.

East Carolina 20, South Florida 17. Tied 17-17 with about ten minutes left, the game was settled by Andrew Conrad’s 55-yard field goal with two seconds on the clock. Landon Sides caught 14 passes for 126 yards and two touchdowns for the Pirates. South Florida +2.5 lost by half a point; otherwise it was ordinary play, with no turnovers or injuries noted in the AP recap.

Illinois 24, Nebraska 13. Nebraska put together four drives of 11 or more plays and got no points from any of them, and John Hohl missed two first-half field goals. Katin Houser threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns, two to Collin Dixon (8 catches, 129 yards). Illinois +4.5 won outright and the STRONG Under 50.5 cashed with 37 total points.

New Mexico 31, Nevada 3. New Mexico’s defense held Nevada to 106 passing yards and minus-9 rushing yards, and Brett Karhu forced a fumble at the Nevada 5 that set up a 21-3 lead. New Mexico -10 covered by 18, and the FADE-WATCH Under 38.5 landed at 34.

Arizona 29, TCU 28. TCU led 28-20 late, helped by Hudson Hooper’s 93-yard interception-return touchdown. Noah Fifita hit Quincy Craig for a score with 1:45 left, the 2-point try failed, Arizona recovered an onside kick and Michael Salgado-Medina kicked a 37-yard field goal with 38 seconds left. Arizona won but by one, so the STRONG play on Arizona -7.5 lost, and the defensive touchdown plus the eight late points pushed the game to 57, past the STRONG Under 46.5. Neither premise was voided by an injury or a benching — the consensus was beaten on the merits in a game TCU’s own kicking misses kept close.

The card, by tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	Units
STRONG	3-3-0	50%	-0.33u
LEAN	1-1-0	50%	-0.07u
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	4-4-0	50%	-0.40u
FADE-WATCH (tracked, not staked)	1-0-0	100%	+0.00u

Every play is graded at the line we posted.

Every play

Result	Tier	Play	Line	Final	Grading
✅ WIN	STRONG	Virginia Tech @ SMU — SMU -6.5	-110 DraftKings	SMU 51-28 Virginia Tech	SMU 51-28 Virginia Tech → SMU +23 with -6.5 = +16.5 → covers · +0.91u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	South Florida @ East Carolina — South Florida +2.5	-110 DraftKings	East Carolina 20-17 South Florida	East Carolina 20-17 South Florida → South Florida -3 with +2.5 = -0.5 → loss · -1.00u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Nebraska @ Illinois — Under 50.5	-115 DraftKings	Illinois 24-13 Nebraska	Illinois 24-13 Nebraska → total 37 vs Under 50.5 → WIN · +0.87u
✅ WIN	STRONG	New Mexico @ Nevada — New Mexico -10	-112 DraftKings	New Mexico 31-3 Nevada	New Mexico 31-3 Nevada → New Mexico +28 with -10 = +18 → covers · +0.89u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	TCU @ Arizona — Arizona -7.5	-102 DraftKings	Arizona 29-28 TCU	Arizona 29-28 TCU → Arizona +1 with -7.5 = -6.5 → loss · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	TCU @ Arizona — Under 46.5	-112 DraftKings	Arizona 29-28 TCU	Arizona 29-28 TCU → total 57 vs Under 46.5 → LOSS · -1.00u
✅ WIN	LEAN	Nebraska @ Illinois — Illinois +4.5	-108 DraftKings	Illinois 24-13 Nebraska	Illinois 24-13 Nebraska → Illinois +11 with +4.5 = +15.5 → covers · +0.93u
❌ LOSS	LEAN	Virginia Tech @ SMU — Under 56.5	-112 DraftKings	SMU 51-28 Virginia Tech	SMU 51-28 Virginia Tech → total 79 vs Under 56.5 → LOSS · -1.00u
✅ WIN	FADE-WATCH	New Mexico @ Nevada — Under 38.5	-112 DraftKings	New Mexico 31-3 Nevada	New Mexico 31-3 Nevada → total 34 vs Under 38.5 → WIN · +0.00u

Best call: New Mexico -10 (STRONG): the Lobos’ defense held Nevada to minus-9 rushing yards and 106 passing yards in a 31-3 win — a cover by 18 and the Lobos’ first win in Reno.

Worst beat: South Florida +2.5 (STRONG): tied 17-17 in the fourth quarter, East Carolina’s Andrew Conrad hit a 55-yard field goal with two seconds left for a 20-17 final — a loss by half a point.

Expert scoreboard — Friday, Nov 6

We graded 140 picks from 65 experts and models. The field went 75-65 (53.6%) against the consensus card’s 4-4 (50%).

Top of the day	Pick	Record	Units
College Football News – Andre Cherry	SMU -6.5; Illinois +4.5; New Mexico -9.5	3-0-0	+2.73u
College Football News – Andrew Margolick	SMU -6.5; Illinois +4.5; New Mexico -9.5	3-0-0	+2.73u
Predictem – Joe Jensen	SMU -6; Under 49.5; New Mexico -9.5; TCU +8.5	4-1-0	+2.64u
Covers – Colby Marchio	Illinois +4.5; Under 50.5; TCU +7.5 (+104)	3-1-0	+1.86u
SportsBettingDime – Chris Amberley	East Carolina -2.5; Illinois +4.5; Under 38.5	3-1-0	+1.70u

Also perfect on the night: Guy Bruhn (Doc’s Sports), Doug Millen, Johnny Rosenstein and Nick Shepkowski (College Football News) at 2-0, and Chris Hatfield (Covers) 2-0 with SMU -5.5 and the Over 55.5. Anthony Rome (TheSpread) and Riley Donald (College Football News) went 3-1, and Jon Wilner (Spokesman-Review) had TCU +9. At the bottom of the day: Chris Landers (FanSided) 1-4 (-3.09u), The Gold Sheet (WagerTalk) 2-4 (-2.73u), and Clucko the Chicken (College Football News) 1-3 (-2.09u).

Season leaders (CFB, graded with us)	Record	Units	Consensus weight
DRatings Model	30-12	+15.30u	1.27
VSiN – Matt Youmans	21-8-2	+11.03u	1.22
Covers – Colby Marchio	29-17	+10.85u	1.16
College Football News – Doug Millen	56-41	+10.04u	1.12
College Football News – Andre Cherry	56-42	+9.04u	1.11
Lineups – Thom Cunningham	16-7	+7.55u	1.16
Pickswise – Napier Montgomery	20-13	+7.53u	1.10

How this changes the card

116 experts are now rated in the CFB consensus (15 decided picks to qualify). After Friday, Colby Marchio (Covers) moved from 1.14 to 1.16 at 29-17, Chris Amberley (SportsBettingDime) from 1.10 to 1.13 at 17-9, Andre Cherry (College Football News) from 1.08 to 1.11 at 56-42 and Doug Millen (College Football News) from 1.10 to 1.12 at 56-41.

Chris Landers (FanSided) slipped from 0.99 to 0.95 at 57-56-1 and FanDuel Research from 1.13 to 1.11 at 13-7. Joe Jensen (Predictem) sits at 0.78 at 26-38-1 despite his 4-1 night.

Season to date

Tier	All	Spread	Moneyline	Total	Units
STRONG	47-48	22-27	2-3	23-18	-5.57u
LEAN	29-36	16-25	4-4	9-7	-9.57u
FADE-WATCH (not staked)	5-4	4-2	—	1-2	—
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	76-84				-15.14u

Every card, every sport: the full consensus record.

Expert picks with no posted odds are graded at -110; one SportsBettingDime row (East Carolina -2.5) had no sportsbook price and was graded at -110 at the line in the pick. All five games finished in regulation.

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