CFB Sportsbook Consensus Grading Recap — Friday, October 16, 2026

Four College Football News pickers swept Friday night at 2-0, +1.82u each — Doug Millen, Clucko the Chicken, E and Johnny Rosenstein — all on Tulane +7.5 and Washington +3.5, the two underdogs that won outright. Millen is now 29-26 with us this season (+0.47u) and back above .500; Clucko the Chicken and E both move to 27-28, Rosenstein to 24-31.

Washington +3.5 also cashed for WagerTalk – Teddy Covers and Doc’s Sports – Josh Schonwald, and the Tulane side hit for ATS.io – Peyton Powell, Doc’s Sports – Guy Bruhn and Covers – Geoff Clark. We logged and graded 97 picks from 50 experts on three games: Washington 38-26 at Purdue, Tulane 31-17 over Memphis and App State 35-32 at Coastal Carolina.

The consensus card went 2-3 for -1.16u. STRONG 1-2 (-1.09u), LEAN 1-1 (-0.07u). The two STRONG spreads, Purdue -3.5 and Memphis -6.5, lost by 15.5 and 20.5 points against the number, and the LEAN Under 49.5 in Conway lost by 17.5. Every play is graded at the line we posted.

What actually happened

Washington 38, Purdue 26. The premise held — Washington started its backup, Stanford transfer Elijah Brown, with Demond Williams Jr. out with a rib injury — but Brown went 21 of 27 for 302 yards and three touchdowns in his first start. The Huskies won despite five turnovers (Brown threw three interceptions, Trey Cooley lost a late fumble). Purdue’s Ryan Browne cut it to 31-26 with 11:18 left, the two-point try failed, and Cooley answered with a 53-yard touchdown run 48 seconds later. With the premise intact, the consensus on Purdue -3.5 (20 of 28 experts) was beaten on the merits. The 64 total points sent every Over in this game home a winner.

Tulane 31, Memphis 17. Memphis turned it over six times (three interceptions, three fumbles), its most in a game since 2006, and Tulane sacked Marcus Stokes seven times. A 10-3 Memphis lead became a 23-10 halftime deficit after a 23-point Tulane second quarter capped by TJ Smith’s 76-yard interception return. Memphis was stopped on 4th-and-goal at the 2 and threw a pick at the Tulane 5 in the third quarter. The turnover avalanche sank Memphis -6.5 and kept the score low: even after Johnnie Daniels’ 48-yard touchdown and two-point conversion with 1:34 left, the game finished at 48 points, under 55.5.

App State 35, Coastal Carolina 32. Malachi Singleton started for App State after being a game-time decision, but Henry Hasselbeck played the whole second half (9 of 12, 112 yards and a touchdown, plus 125 rushing yards). Down 24-14 at halftime, App State scored 21 straight, Jaquari Lewis ran for four touchdowns, and Hasselbeck’s 31-yard strike made it 35-24 with 6:41 left. Coastal scored with 3:11 left and added the two-point try to make it 35-32, leaving App State -1.5 a cover by a point and a half. With 38 points on the board by halftime and 953 combined yards, the Under 49.5 was beaten on the merits.

The card, by tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	Units
STRONG	1-2-0	33%	-1.09u
LEAN	1-1-0	50%	-0.07u
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	2-3-0	40%	-1.16u

Every play is graded at the line we posted.

Every play

Result	Tier	Play	Line	Final	Grading
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Washington @ Purdue — Purdue -3.5 (-110)	-3.5 (-110) · FanDuel	Washington 38-26 Purdue	Washington 38 Purdue 26 → Purdue lost by 12; -12 – 3.5 = -15.5 → does not cover -3.5 ❌ · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Memphis @ Tulane — Memphis -6.5 (-122)	-6.5 (-122) · FanDuel	Tulane 31-17 Memphis	Tulane 31 Memphis 17 → Memphis lost by 14; -14 – 6.5 = -20.5 → does not cover -6.5 ❌ · -1.00u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Memphis @ Tulane — Under 55.5 (-110)	55.5 (-110) · FanDuel	Tulane 31-17 Memphis	17 + 31 = 48 → under 55.5 by 7.5 → Under wins ✅ · +0.91u
✅ WIN	LEAN	Appalachian State @ Coastal Carolina — Appalachian State -1.5 (-108)	-1.5 (-108) · FanDuel	Appalachian State 35-32 Coastal Carolina	App State 35 Coastal 32 → App State by 3; 3 – 1.5 = +1.5 → covers -1.5 ✅ · +0.93u
❌ LOSS	LEAN	Appalachian State @ Coastal Carolina — Under 49.5 (-114)	49.5 (-114) · FanDuel	Appalachian State 35-32 Coastal Carolina	35 + 32 = 67 → over 49.5 by 17.5 → Under loses ❌ · -1.00u

Best call: Memphis-Tulane Under 55.5 (STRONG, 5 of 6 experts): six Memphis turnovers, a 4th-and-goal stop at the 2 and an interception at the Tulane 5 ended drives that should have produced points, and the game finished at 48 even after Tulane’s late 48-yard touchdown and two-point conversion.

Worst beat: Purdue -3.5 (STRONG, 20 of 28 experts): Washington’s backup QB, Elijah Brown, threw for 302 yards and three touchdowns in his first start, and Trey Cooley’s 53-yard run answered Purdue’s late push to 31-26. Washington won by 12 despite five turnovers.

Expert scoreboard — Friday, Oct 16

We graded 97 picks from 50 experts and models. The field went 37-60 (38.1%) against the consensus card’s 2-3 (40%).

Top of the day	Pick	Record	Units
College Football News – Doug Millen	Tulane +7.5; Washington +3.5	2-0-0	+1.82u
College Football News – Clucko the Chicken	Tulane +7.5; Washington +3.5	2-0-0	+1.82u
College Football News – E	Tulane +7.5; Washington +3.5	2-0-0	+1.82u
College Football News – Johnny Rosenstein	Tulane +7.5; Washington +3.5	2-0-0	+1.82u

Also on the right side at 1-0: WagerTalk – Teddy Covers and Doc’s Sports – Josh Schonwald (Washington +3.5), ATS.io – Peyton Powell (Tulane +7.5), Doc’s Sports – Guy Bruhn (Tulane +6.5), RotoWire – Chris Bennett (Washington-Purdue Over 50.5), Pickswise – Ben Dezell (Over 52.5), Cappers Picks – PDX PIX (App State -1.5) and Pickswise – Sam Avellone (App State ML). WagerTalk – The Gold Sheet split 2-2 (-0.20u). At the bottom of the day: Bleacher Nation, Picks and Parlays – Kim Smith and StatSalt – Eddie Kline each went 2-4 (-2.18u), Sportsbook Review – Philip Wood went 1-3 (-2.07u), and six College Football News pickers plus TheSpread – Alex Becker and Predictem – Joe Jensen went 0-2. The field went 37-60 overall.

Season leaders (CFB, graded with us)	Record	Units	Consensus weight
CBS Sports – Chris Hummer	40-21-3	+15.40u	1.24
CBS Sports – John Talty	29-11	+15.39u	1.28
DRatings Model	30-12	+15.30u	1.27
College Football News – Andre Cherry	36-19	+13.84u	1.22
College Football News – Jake Margolick	33-22	+8.03u	1.13
CBS Sports – Tom Fornelli	38-27-3	+7.55u	1.11
SportsLine Model	20-11-1	+7.22u	1.14

How this changes the card

68 experts are now rated (15+ decided picks). SI – Peter Dewey reached 15 decided picks at 10-5-1 and moves from the neutral 1.00 to 1.10. Doug Millen (College Football News) climbs from 0.98 to 1.01 at 29-26, and Clucko the Chicken and E rise from 0.91 to 0.94. Misses on the Memphis and Purdue favorites trimmed College Football News – Jake Margolick (1.16 to 1.13, 33-22), John Kennedy (1.07 to 1.04, 30-25) and Picks and Parlays – Kim Smith (1.07 to 1.03, 25-21). College Football News – Andre Cherry stays among the heaviest at 1.22 (36-19).

Season to date

Tier	All	Spread	Moneyline	Total	Units
STRONG	27-26	14-13	1-3	12-10	-2.01u
LEAN	21-27	13-18	4-3	4-6	-7.88u
FADE-WATCH (not staked)	3-4	3-2	—	0-2	—
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	48-53				-9.89u

Every card, every sport: the full consensus record.

Rows that listed only a line and no price, including every College Football News pick, are graded at -110. ATS.io – Peyton Powell and Sportsbook Review – Quinn Allen listed no sportsbook price and are also graded at -110. All three games were final in regulation.

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