CFB Sportsbook Consensus Grading Recap — Friday, October 9, 2026

The grading found its winners on Friday night. FanSided’s Chris Landers went a perfect 5-0 (+4.55u) across all five games and is now 9-4 (+4.19u) over everything we have graded him on this season. Four College Football News writers — Nick Shepkowski, Riley Donald, Clucko the Chicken and E — each went 3-0 (+2.73u). Sportsbook Review’s Mike Spector was 3-0 (+2.66u), and TheSpread’s Paul Elliot 2-0 (+1.86u) including the night’s cleanest total. Five CBS Sports writers went 2-0 apiece, among them Tom Fornelli, who with that 2-0 now sits on top of our entire CFB board at 27-15-3, +9.57u.

We logged and tiered 67 experts and models across 152 picks on five games, and graded every one against the confirmed final.

The card

The consensus card went 4-3 (+0.66 units). The STRONG plays were 4-2 (+1.66u) — 4-1 (+2.66u) on totals and 0-1 (-1.00u) on the spread. The single LEAN lost: 0-1 (-1.00u). The FADE-WATCH row, Iowa +2.5, won but is a watch rather than a staked play, so it is graded at 0 units and kept out of the card record.

What actually happened

One game explains both Iowa rows and the day’s only STRONG loss. The case for Under 41.5 in Seattle rested on Iowa starting a backup quarterback with 18 career completions — and that quarterback, third-year Jeremy Hecklinski, making his first career start, went 14 of 19 for 202 yards and three touchdowns at a 215.1 rating, two of them to DJ Vonnahme. Kamari Moulton ran 26 times for a career-high 208 yards and two scores in a 263-yard rushing night, Caden Buhr hit from 51 and 27, and Iowa led 13-0 after a quarter and 27-3 at the half on the way to 41-24. That is not the consensus misreading the matchup; it is the premise of the total ceasing to exist on the first drive. The same thing is why the FADE-WATCH on Iowa +2.5 cashed by 14.5 points — Washington finished with minus-four rushing yards.

The two Mountain West and Pac-12 games went the other way, and in both the total cashed while the side did not. In San Jose the whole game produced two touchdowns and five field goals: San Jose State led 13-6 entering the fourth on Trajan Sinatra’s pair of third-quarter kicks, Wyoming’s Tyler Hughes (114 passing, 92 rushing) then ran an 18-play, 75-yard drive and threw an 8-yard touchdown to Jake Wilson to tie it with 6:31 left, and Erik Sandvik’s 21-yard field goal in overtime won it 16-13 for a Wyoming team that had been shut out 28-0 by an FCS opponent seven days earlier. Even with the extra period the total reached only 29. In Logan, Washington State scored all 16 of its points before halftime — three Jack Stevens field goals and Leo Pulalasi’s 54-yard run — and then nothing; Utah State answered with a third-quarter touchdown and, after recovering a fumble at the Washington State 19, a 2-yard touchdown run that put it ahead 17-16 with 6:22 to play. A one-point win does not cover -5.5, and 33 points does not clear 43.5.

The other two games were straightforward. BYU 24-10 stayed low because BYU kept stalling: Bear Bachmeier threw for over 300 yards and ran for 100 for the first time in his career, including a 75-yard touchdown to Legend Glasker, but with LJ Martin out BYU turned the ball over on downs three times, once from the Iowa State 5, and Iowa State’s only touchdown followed a muffed punt. And in Louisville, Isaac Brown’s career-high 235 rushing yards and two long touchdowns carried the Cardinals to 537 total yards and 44-20, which cleared 59.5 with room.

Friday by tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	Units
STRONG	4-2-0	66.7%	+1.66u
LEAN	0-1-0	0.0%	-1.00u
FADE-WATCH (watch only)	1-0-0	100%	0.00u
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	4-3-0	57.1%	+0.66u

Every play is graded at the line and price we posted at 8:55 a.m. CT, at flat 1-unit stakes. FADE-WATCH rows are watches, not staked plays, and are reported separately at 0 units.

Every play

	Game	Tier	The consensus play	Final	Units
✅	Iowa State @ BYU	STRONG	Under 46.5 (-112)	BYU 24-10 Iowa State — 34	+0.89
✅	Florida State @ Louisville	STRONG	Over 59.5 (-112)	Louisville 44-20 Florida State — 64	+0.89
✅	Wyoming @ San Jose State	STRONG	Under 42.5 (-108)	Wyoming 16-13 San Jose State (OT) — 29	+0.93
❌	Iowa @ Washington	STRONG	Under 41.5 (-115)	Iowa 41-24 Washington — 65	-1.00
✅	Washington State @ Utah State	STRONG	Under 43.5 (-105)	Utah State 17-16 Washington State — 33	+0.95
❌	Wyoming @ San Jose State	STRONG	San Jose State -4.5 (-108)	Wyoming won 16-13 in OT	-1.00
❌	Washington State @ Utah State	LEAN	Utah State -5.5 (-108)	Utah State by 1 (17-16)	-1.00
➖✅	Iowa @ Washington	FADE-WATCH	Iowa +2.5 (-105)	Iowa by 17 (41-24)	0.00

Best call and worst beat

Best call — Under 42.5 in Wyoming at San Jose State (STRONG, 5 of 6 experts). Two touchdowns in sixty-five minutes of football. The game needed an entire overtime period just to reach 29 points, so the number was never in danger even once the game went long — exactly the low-volume, no-offence profile the experts on that side were pointing at.

Worst beat — San Jose State -4.5 (STRONG, 7 of 10 experts). San Jose State was home for homecoming, up 13-6 going to the fourth quarter, and lost outright in overtime to a Wyoming team that had been shut out by an FCS opponent the week before. The turning point was an 18-play Wyoming drive that ate most of the fourth quarter and tied the game; the Spartans never scored again, in regulation or overtime.

Expert scoreboard — Friday, October 9

67 experts and models graded, 152 picks, 82-70 (53.9%) and +4.62 units. The consensus card hit 57.1% against the full field’s 53.9% — the tiering added about three points of hit rate over simply following everybody.

Top of the day

Expert	Outlet	Friday	Units
Chris Landers	FanSided	5-0-0	+4.55u
Clucko the Chicken	College Football News	3-0-0	+2.73u
E	College Football News	3-0-0	+2.73u
Nick Shepkowski	College Football News	3-0-0	+2.73u
Riley Donald	College Football News	3-0-0	+2.73u
Mike Spector	Sportsbook Review	3-0-0	+2.66u

Toughest night

Expert	Outlet	Friday	Units
Andrew Margolick	College Football News	0-3-0	-3.00u
Doug Millen	College Football News	0-3-0	-3.00u
Johnny Rosenstein	College Football News	0-3-0	-3.00u
Ryan Callahan	TheRX	4-6-0	-2.31u
Geoff Clark	Covers	1-3-0	-2.09u

Season leaders on our CFB board

Expert	Outlet	Record	Hit rate	Units	Weight
Tom Fornelli	CBS Sports	27-15-3	64.3%	+9.57u	1.17
Chris Hummer	CBS Sports	28-16-3	63.6%	+9.48u	1.17
Jake Margolick	College Football News	23-15-0	60.5%	+5.93u	1.11
John Talty	CBS Sports	15-8-0	65.2%	+5.65u	1.12
Michael Cohen	FOX Sports	12-6-1	66.7%	+4.92u	1.11
RJ Young	FOX Sports	12-6-1	66.7%	+4.92u	1.11

How this changes the card

Friday moved the top of the board. Tom Fornelli’s 2-0 night makes him the highest-rated capper we track in college football — 27-15-3 and +9.57u over 42 decided picks, carrying a weight of 1.17, which means his side counts meaningfully more in the next consensus than a capper we have never seen hit. Chris Hummer is right behind at 1.17 after a 1-1 Friday that cost him top spot by nine hundredths of a unit. The night also cut the other way: Riley Donald and Clucko the Chicken both went 3-0 but remain under water for the season at 18-19 (0.95) and 18-20 (0.93), so a good Friday does not undo six weeks — the weight follows the sample, not the mood.

The name to watch is Chris Landers. Friday’s 5-0 puts him at 9-4 and +4.19u, a 69.2% hit rate, and he is the closest unrated capper on our CFB board to qualifying: 13 decided picks against the 15 we require before anyone moves off a neutral 1.00 weight. Two more graded picks and he enters the weighting — nothing he did on Friday was weighted, because he has not yet earned it.

Season to date

Tier	Spread	Moneyline	Totals	All	Units
STRONG	10-10-0	1-3-0	8-8-0	19-21-0	-4.27u
LEAN	10-14-0	3-3-0	4-5-0	17-22-0	-5.84u
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	20-24-0	4-6-0	12-13-0	36-43-0	-10.11u
FADE-WATCH (watch only)	3-2-0	—	0-1-0	3-3-0	0.00u

By tier and market, STRONG units break down as spread -1.29u, moneyline -2.26u and totals -0.72u; LEAN as spread -4.82u, moneyline +0.42u and totals -1.44u. That is 13 graded CFB dates. Over the last seven days the STRONG plays are 8-6 (+1.10u).

Grading notes

All five games were final and confirmed on ESPN and on the schools’ own sites. Wyoming at San Jose State went to overtime and is graded on the final score including overtime — 16-13, 29 points. There were no pushes and no postponements. Every card play and every expert row is graded at the line and price stored when we logged it, not at the closing number; expert rows published without a sportsbook price are computed at -110, which applies to 111 of the 152 rows. The full row-by-row grading, including the thirteen expert rows carrying an older line and the three carrying a pick-text line different from the page table, is written up in the graded sheet.

DailyOverlay does not make picks. We log what other experts and models publish, tier it, publish it, and grade it against the confirmed final. Betting involves risk — only stake what you can afford to lose, and if gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.