CFB Sportsbook Consensus Grading Recap — Thursday, November 12, 2026

Chris Amberley of SportsBettingDime went a perfect 4-0 for +3.64u on Thursday, cashing Memphis on the moneyline and at -2.5 plus Louisiana on the moneyline and at -10.5. That pushes him to 27-9-1 (+15.47u) with us this season — the best CFB record on our board. Colby Marchio (Covers) went 2-0 (+1.82u) with Memphis -3.5 and the Over 50.5 and is now 31-18 (+11.67u). Cameron Ross (Picks and Parlays) also went 2-0 (+1.82u) on Memphis -6 and the Over 49.5, moving to 8-2 (+5.28u), and Ryan Callahan (TheRX) went 3-1 (+1.69u), hitting Louisiana -10, the Louisiana-ULM Over 49 and Memphis -3.5.

The consensus card went 2-1 for +0.50u. STRONG 1-0 (+0.57u), LEAN 1-1 (-0.07u). The STRONG play, Memphis ML -175, won; the LEAN Louisiana -10.5 covered; the LEAN Under 50.5 in Memphis-South Florida lost as the game finished with 93 points. Every play is graded at the line we posted.

What actually happened

Memphis 52, South Florida 41. Marcus Stokes accounted for five touchdowns, throwing for 313 yards on 15-of-31 passing with no interceptions and running for 73 more. Memphis built a 21-point lead, then watched USF rally all the way back; Nico Gramatica’s 38-yard field goal with 8:04 left gave the Bulls their first lead at 41-38. Memphis scored the final 14 points, closed by Jaylin Carter’s 26-yard touchdown run. USF had its chances late: a fourth-and-2 pass from Luke Kromenhoek was dropped in the end zone with 3:38 left, and J’Mond Tapp’s back-to-back sacks forced a fourth-and-27 incompletion with 57 seconds to go.

For the card, the outright win was all the STRONG Memphis moneyline needed, and Memphis covered every spread posted in the ledger, from -2.5 to -6. The total was a different story. Both offenses scored freely all night, and the combined 93 points cleared 50.5 by more than 40. Nothing unusual voided the Under premise — no injury or weather swing — so the consensus was simply beaten on the merits by two offenses that never stalled.

Louisiana 42, UL Monroe 21. The rivalry game was tied 14-14 at halftime after ULM opened with a 15-play touchdown drive. Two ULM fumbles in the third quarter decided it: Micah Johnson returned one 18 yards for a touchdown, and JJ Garner scored from 19 yards out after the second. Garner added an 18-yard touchdown run in the fourth, and Louisiana ran for 274 yards on 33 carries while throwing for only 65. ULM actually outgained the Cajuns 372-339, but the turnovers turned a coin-flip game into a 21-point margin that cleared -10.5 by 10.5.

The card, by tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	Units
STRONG	1-0-0	100%	+0.57u
LEAN	1-1-0	50%	-0.07u
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	2-1-0	67%	+0.50u

Every play is graded at the line we posted.

Every play

Result	Tier	Play	Line	Final	Grading
✅ WIN	STRONG	Memphis @ South Florida — Memphis ML	-175 DraftKings	Memphis 52-41 South Florida	Memphis won outright 52-41 → ML wins ✅ · +0.57u
❌ LOSS	LEAN	Memphis @ South Florida — Under 50.5	-112 DraftKings	Memphis 52-41 South Florida	52 + 41 = 93, above 50.5 → Under loses ❌ · -1.00u
✅ WIN	LEAN	Louisiana @ UL Monroe — Louisiana -10.5	-108 DraftKings	Louisiana 42-21 UL Monroe	Louisiana by 21, covers -10.5 by 10.5 ✅ · +0.93u

Best call: Louisiana -10.5 (LEAN): the game was tied at halftime, but two forced ULM fumbles in the third quarter — one returned for a touchdown — and a 274-yard rushing night turned it into a 21-point win.

Worst beat: Under 50.5 (LEAN) in Memphis-South Florida: Marcus Stokes’ five-touchdown night and a USF comeback from 21 down produced 93 points, so the Under was gone well before the final whistle.

Expert scoreboard — Thursday, Nov 12

We graded 52 picks from 31 experts and models. The field went 30-22 (57.7%) against the consensus card’s 2-1 (67%).

Top of the day	Pick	Record	Units
SportsBettingDime – Chris Amberley	Memphis ML; Memphis -2.5; Louisiana -10.5; Louisiana ML	4-0-0	+3.64u
Covers – Colby Marchio	Memphis -3.5; Over 50.5	2-0-0	+1.82u
Picks and Parlays – Cameron Ross	Memphis -6; Over 49.5	2-0-0	+1.82u
TheRX – Ryan Callahan	Louisiana -10; Over 49; Memphis -3.5 (lost Under 50)	3-1-0	+1.69u

Also on the right side of Memphis -3.5/-4: Mike Calabrese (Action Network), Adam Burke (VSiN), Randy Chambers (Sports Chat Place), Ryan Gilbert (SI), Tony Sink (Doc’s Sports), Carter Gange (Cappers Picks) and Joe Jensen (Predictem); Andrew Jett (Pick Dawgz) and Mike Marteny (RotoBaller) cashed Louisiana -10.5, and James Hayes (Cappers Picks) hit the Louisiana-ULM Over 49.5. The bottom of the day: Dimers Model 1-3 (-2.09u), Kim Smith (StatSalt) 0-2 (-2.00u) and The Gold Sheet (WagerTalk) 1-2 (-1.43u), all of them on South Florida or the Under in the Memphis game.

Season leaders (CFB, graded with us)	Record	Units	Consensus weight
SportsBettingDime – Chris Amberley	27-9-1	+15.47u	1.29
DRatings Model	30-12	+15.30u	1.27
Covers – Colby Marchio	31-18	+11.67u	1.17
College Football News – Doug Millen	56-41	+10.04u	1.12
SportsLine Model	36-23-1	+9.89u	1.15
College Football News – Andre Cherry	56-42	+9.04u	1.11
Pickswise – Napier Montgomery	26-18	+8.95u	1.10

How this changes the card

Chris Amberley (SportsBettingDime) now carries the heaviest weight in the CFB consensus at 1.29 on a 27-9-1 record, and Colby Marchio (Covers) sits at 1.17 at 31-18 after another clean night. Napier Montgomery (Pickswise) slips to 26-18 (weight 1.10) after taking UL Monroe +10.5. Collin Wilson (Action Network) is 9-5 with 14 decided picks — one away from the 15 needed to earn a rating — and Cameron Ross (Picks and Parlays) is at 10 decided picks (8-2); both still count at a neutral 1.00 until they qualify.

Season to date

Tier	All	Spread	Moneyline	Total	Units
STRONG	50-54	23-32	3-3	24-19	-9.13u
LEAN	32-37-1	19-25-1	4-4	9-8	-7.84u
FADE-WATCH (not staked)	5-4	4-2	—	1-2	—
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	82-91-1				-16.97u

Every card, every sport: the full consensus record.

Expert rows with no sportsbook price (Covers Computer Model, Covers – Chris Vasile, SportsBettingDime – Chris Amberley, two Dimers Model rows) are graded at -110. Each expert is graded at the number they posted, including alternate lines. Finals confirmed from ESPN, Fox Sports/AP, USF Athletics and Fishduck/BVM Sports; neither game went to overtime.

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