CFB Sportsbook Consensus Grading Recap — Thursday, October 1, 2026

Predictem’s Joe Jensen and WagerTalk were the two cleanest cards in college football on Thursday night — both 2-0, both +1.82 units, both on New Mexico State laying the points and North Texas taking them. The Odds Shark computer was the busiest winner at 3-1 (+1.73u) across four graded picks. Pickswise’s Napier Montgomery got the best price of the night on the Aggies at +104 and turned one pick into +1.04u, and seven more cappers and models went a perfect 1-0 (+0.91u each): ATS.io’s Jay Sanin, Cappers Picks’ Brandon Banks, the Dimers model, the numberFire model, the SportsLine model, Pickswise’s Sam Avellone and VSiN’s Adam Burke. We logged 54 published picks from 31 distinct experts and models across the two games and graded every one at the number its author actually posted.

The consensus card ran three LEAN plays and no STRONG plays, and it went 1-2 (-1.09 units). The spread side split — North Texas +1 cashed, Western Kentucky +2.5 did not — and the Under 57.5 in Tulsa lost. No FADE-WATCH plays were flagged. Both games are confirmed final and every number below is graded at the line we posted at 10:05 am CT.

What actually happened

New Mexico State 34, Western Kentucky 13. The consensus case for the road dog leaned heavily on New Mexico State’s quarterback room being unsettled after a five-interception stretch and a mid-game benching. The Aggies settled it: Adam Damante made his first start of the season and went 15 of 26 for 146 yards with a passing touchdown and a rushing touchdown, James Jones ran 20 times for 155 yards, and the game actually turned on defence — De’Marcus Peters picked off Rodney Tisdale and returned it 45 yards for a touchdown in the second quarter to make it 13-3, and the Aggie front recorded six sacks with five of them after halftime. Western Kentucky out-gained New Mexico State 357-352 and still lost by 21, because it ran for 43 yards, never reached the end zone through the air and kept stalling in Aggie territory. Nobody important left this game and no weather was involved: the consensus was beaten on the merits.

North Texas 45, Tulsa 44 (OT). One thing decided both plays on this game, and it is the thing the card flagged as the swing factor — Tulsa’s quarterback. Baylor Hayes was a game-time call, he played, and he threw 43 times for 211 yards and three touchdowns while adding two more on the ground, including the 1-yard run with 31 seconds left that forced overtime at 38-38. The forecast rain that three Under picks were built on never showed up. North Texas led 31-17 after scoring 21 unanswered in the third quarter, powered by Jahiem White’s 219 yards on 32 carries and an 84-yard run, then had to survive overtime: Tayven Jackson (24 of 39, 332 yards, four touchdowns, two interceptions) ran in a 1-yard score, Damari Alston answered from two yards out, and Tulsa went for the win. Oran Singleton Jr. was ruled a shin-down short of the goal line on the two-point try and the call stood on review. North Texas out-gained Tulsa 559-352 and won by a point. That single replay decision is why the spread side cashed and the 89 combined points are why the Under never had a prayer.

Tier record — Thursday, October 1

Tier	Record	Hit rate	Units
STRONG	none ran	—	0.00
LEAN	1-2-0	33.3%	-1.09
FADE-WATCH	none flagged	—	0.00
Card total (STRONG + LEAN)	1-2-0	33.3%	-1.09

Every play is graded at the line we posted, at flat 1-unit stakes. FADE-WATCH plays are watches, not staked plays, and are kept out of the card record.

Every play on the card

Result	Game	Consensus play	Tier	Final score	Units
✅ WIN	North Texas @ Tulsa	North Texas +1 (-110)	LEAN	North Texas 45-44 Tulsa (OT)	+0.91
❌ LOSS	Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State	Western Kentucky +2.5 (-115)	LEAN	New Mexico State 34-13 Western Kentucky	-1.00
❌ LOSS	North Texas @ Tulsa	Under 57.5 (-110)	LEAN	North Texas 45-44 Tulsa (OT) — 89 points	-1.00

Best call and worst beat

Best call: North Texas +1, and the margin for error was a shin. The 11 experts on the Mean Green were paid for the efficiency argument — North Texas out-gained Tulsa by 207 yards and Jahiem White went for 219 on the ground — but the cover only survived because Oran Singleton Jr. was ruled short on a two-point try in overtime and the replay booth let it stand. VSiN’s Adam Burke and the Odds Shark computer were on it at the exact +1 we posted; Sean Green of the Sports Gambling Podcast, Predictem’s Joe Jensen, Pickswise’s Sam Avellone, the numberFire and Dimers models, WagerTalk and College Football News’ Pete Fiutak all had +1.5 or better.

Worst beat: Under 57.5 in Tulsa, and it was not really a beat — it was three premises failing at once. The Under case needed rain, a Tulsa backup quarterback and the run-first pace that had taken all four Tulsa games Under. The rain never came, Baylor Hayes played and threw 43 times, and the game produced 76 points in regulation before overtime pushed it to 89. The consensus had this one fully priced at 57.5 and the market was not close to the result.

Expert scoreboard — Thursday, October 1

31 experts and models graded on 54 published picks across two games. The field went 24-29-1 on 53 decided picks, a 45.3% hit rate. The consensus card hit 33.3% (1 of 3) — on a two-game Thursday the field beat the card, and the ledger below is the receipt.

Top of the day	Record	Units
Predictem – Joe Jensen	2-0-0	+1.82
WagerTalk	2-0-0	+1.82
Odds Shark Computer	3-1-0	+1.73
Pickswise – Napier Montgomery	1-0-0	+1.04
Seven more at 1-0-0 (ATS.io – Jay Sanin; Cappers Picks – Brandon Banks; Dimers Model; numberFire Model; SportsLine Model; Pickswise – Sam Avellone; VSiN – Adam Burke)	1-0-0 each	+0.91 each

Toughest night	Record	Units
TheRX – Ryan Callahan	1-3-0	-2.09
Bleacher Nation	0-2-0	-2.00
Covers – Rob Paul	0-2-0	-2.00
Sports Gambling Podcast – Colby Dant	0-2-0	-2.00
Sports Gambling Podcast – Ryan Kramer	0-2-0	-2.00
Todayslines – Scott Kacsmar	0-2-0	-2.00

Season leaders in our CFB ledger	Graded record	Hit rate	Weight
College Football News – Jackson Langendorf	11-4	73.3%	1.14
CBS Sports – Tom Fornelli	23-14-3	62.2%	1.13
CBS Sports – Chris Hummer	24-15-3	61.5%	1.13
CBS Sports – John Talty	11-7	61.1%	1.07
College Football News – Andre Cherry	9-6	60.0%	1.05
Winners and Whiners – Al MacMillan	18-14	56.3%	1.05
SportsLine Model	12-9-1	57.1%	1.04

How this changes the card

An expert stays at a neutral 1.00 weight in our consensus until we have graded 15 decided picks, so most of Thursday’s winners moved our sample rather than their weight. The SportsLine model is the one qualified name that gained here: it is 12-9-1 on everything we have graded it on this season and carries 1.04, so its Under at New Mexico State counted for slightly more than a capper we have never seen hit. The Odds Shark computer had the best raw night of anyone at 3-1 but sits at 0.84 on a 14-21 season record, so one good Thursday does not restore it; College Football News’ Pete Fiutak is 13-16 at 0.92 and split his two. Among the unrated, Doc’s Sports’ Guy Bruhn is now at 14 decided CFB picks and is one graded pick from qualifying, with Pickswise’s Sam Avellone at 13 and Predictem’s Joe Jensen, TheSpread’s Anthony Rome and TheRX’s Ryan Callahan all at 12. None of Thursday’s plays were weighted on the strength of an unrated capper, and we will not claim otherwise.

Season to date — CFB consensus

Tier	Spread	Moneyline	Totals	All	Units
STRONG	6-7-0	1-2-0	4-5-0	11-14-0	-4.37
LEAN	7-9-0	0-3-0	3-4-0	10-16-0	-6.92
Card total	13-16-0	1-5-0	7-9-0	21-30-0	-11.29
FADE-WATCH (watches only)	1-2-0	—	0-1-0	1-3-0	0.00

Nine graded CFB game dates so far this season. STRONG and LEAN are reported separately here and in the graded sheets, and they are never blended into a single number.

Grading notes

Both games were confirmed final before grading, through ESPN, NCAA.com and the official school and conference recaps. North Texas 45-44 Tulsa went to overtime and is graded on the final score including overtime; New Mexico State 34-13 Western Kentucky finished in regulation. Every card play and every expert pick is graded at the number its author published, at flat 1-unit stakes, with a win paying the stored price and -110 assumed where no price was published. Two expert rows were priced only in prediction-market cents and were graded at -110. One row — iHeart Buzz Tulsa quoting North Texas as a 1-point favourite rather than a 1-point dog — landed exactly on the number and is graded a PUSH. There were no postponements and no NO ACTION rows.

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