MLB Sportsbook Consensus Grading Recap — Tuesday, October 13, 2026

Kyle Kargel (WagerTalk) went 2-0 for +1.52 units on ALCS Game 2, cashing both the Rays moneyline and the Under 7. Lou Aguila (Sportytrader) had the best single ticket of the night, Rays -1.5 at +159 for +1.59u, and Mike Spector (Sportsbook Review) hit the Under 7 to move to 9-3, +5.32u on everything we have graded him on this season. Ryan Gilbert (Sports Illustrated, 1-0, +0.87u) is now 9-4, +4.30u with us. We graded 25 picks from 20 experts and models on one game.

The consensus card went 2-0 for +1.58 units: the STRONG play, Under 7, cashed (1-0, +0.82u), and the LEAN, Rays moneyline, cashed (1-0, +0.76u). Every play is graded at the line we posted.

What actually happened

Rays 3, Guardians 1 (9 innings; ALCS tied 1-1). The consensus case for the Under rested on two short starts handing the game to rested bullpens. Instead, both starters went deep: Freddy Peralta threw six scoreless innings on 99 pitches (four hits, two walks, six strikeouts), and Parker Messick went five innings on 82 pitches without allowing an earned run. The three Rays runs all came in the fourth inning, and all three were unearned. A Tampa Bay replay challenge overturned what would have been an inning-ending double play, because Nathaniel Lowe’s foot came off the bag. Then, with two outs, José Ramírez made a throwing error on a grounder that should have ended the inning. Victor Mesa Jr. scored on the error, and Liam Hicks followed with a two-run hit that scored Chandler Simpson and Ben Williamson.

Cleveland’s only run was Chase DeLauter’s two-out RBI double in the seventh. Ian Seymour came on with two runners aboard, finished the seventh and pitched a clean eighth, and Bryan Baker closed it out in the ninth. That one defensive play explains both results on the card. Four total runs left the Under three runs clear of the number, and the Rays’ moneyline came down to the runs Cleveland’s defense gave away. Peralta’s six innings meant the Rays never needed a long night from their bullpen.

The card, by tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	Units
STRONG	1-0-0	100%	+0.82
LEAN	1-0-0	100%	+0.76
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	2-0-0	100%	+1.58

Every play is graded at the line we posted. No FADE-WATCH or F5 plays were on the card.

Every play

Result	Tier	Play	Line (posted)	Final	Grading	Units
✅ WIN	STRONG	Guardians @ Rays — Under 7	Under 7 (-122) DraftKings	Rays 3-1	3 + 1 = 4 runs, under 7	+0.82
✅ WIN	LEAN	Guardians @ Rays — Rays ML	-132 DraftKings	Rays 3-1	Rays won outright	+0.76

Best call: the STRONG Under 7, backed by 7 of 8 experts against 82% of the public money on the Over. Neither starter left early as expected. Peralta’s six scoreless innings and Messick’s five capped the night at four runs.
Worst beat: none on the card. In the wider field, Guardians +1.5 at -205 (Bettors Insider) lost by half a run. Cleveland lost by two, and all three Tampa Bay runs scored on or after the two-out Ramírez error.

Expert scoreboard — Tuesday, Oct 13

20 experts and models graded on 25 picks. The field went 17-8 (68.0%); the consensus card went 2-0 (100%).

Top of the day	Outlet	W-L-P	Units
Lou Aguila	Sportytrader	1-0-0	+1.59
Kyle Kargel	WagerTalk	2-0-0	+1.52
Joe Jensen	Predictem	1-0-0	+0.91
Jay Sanin	ATS.io	1-0-0	+0.91
Ryan Gilbert	Sports Illustrated	1-0-0	+0.87

Bottom of the day	Outlet	W-L-P	Units
Bleacher Nation Model	Bleacher Nation	1-1-0	-0.28
Earnest Horn	Bettors Insider	0-1-0	-1.00
FanDuel Research	FanDuel Research	0-1-0	-1.00
Tony Sink	Doc’s Sports	0-1-0	-1.00
Jon Metler	Covers	0-1-0	-1.00

MLB season leaders (graded by us)	Record	Units	Consensus weight
Anthony Rome (TheSpread)	12-6-1	+6.08	1.11 (rated)
Mike Spector (Sportsbook Review)	9-3-0	+5.32	1.00 (12 of 15 decided)
Shawn Krest (Covers)	5-0-0	+4.88	1.00 (5 of 15)
Casey Whitmore (TheRX)	8-2-0	+4.78	1.00 (10 of 15)
Ryan Gilbert (Sports Illustrated)	9-4-0	+4.30	1.00 (13 of 15)
Thom Cunningham (Lineups)	13-10-1	+2.09	1.04 (rated)

How this changes the card

Kyle Kargel’s 2-0 night lifts his weight in the consensus from 0.92 to 0.96. He is 10-11-1 on 21 decided picks with us, so he is still slightly below the baseline. Anthony Rome (12-6-1) still carries the most weight on the MLB board at 1.11, ahead of Thom Cunningham at 1.04 (13-10-1). Two cappers are close to earning weight: Ryan Gilbert (9-4, 13 decided) and Mike Spector (9-3, 12 decided) both stay at 1.00 until they reach 15 decided picks. On their current records, both would move up once they qualify.

Season to date (MLB, 11 graded dates)

Tier	Run line	ML	Totals	All
STRONG	2-1-0, +0.86u	2-4-0, -1.87u	4-4-1, -0.40u	8-9-1, -1.41u
LEAN	3-1-0, +0.61u	6-3-0, +1.63u	8-3-0, +4.12u	17-7-0, +6.36u
Card (STRONG + LEAN)				25-16-1, +4.95u
FADE-WATCH (0 units, not in card)	—	0-1-0	—	0-1-0

Grading notes: final confirmed on the CBS Sports box score and Yahoo Sports recap; 9 innings, and the Rays did not bat in the ninth. Expert picks published without a sportsbook price (Predictem, Picks and Parlays total, ATS.io, Bleacher Nation total) are graded at an assumed -110. Units are flat 1-unit stakes at the stored odds.

DailyOverlay tracks, tiers and grades picks published by outside experts and models; the picks belong to the consensus. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.