MLB Sportsbook Consensus Picks — Monday, August 3, 2026
Sources aggregated with flat, equal weighting, one vote per handicapper per board per game. Moneyline board: 5 computer-model sites, 13 Action Network expert picks and 36 free expert-site picks — 89 votes across 27 distinct sources. Totals board: 4 totals-publishing model sites (31 votes), 8 Action Network Over/Under picks and 25 free-site Over/Under picks — 64 votes across 17 distinct sources. Consensus locked at approximately 12:30 PM ET, before first pitch on the full board. All start times Eastern.
Today’s Monday card is an eight-game slate, all of it night baseball — no games had started when this board was built, so every game on the schedule is included. On the moneyline board, 7 of 8 games reached STRONG consensus. On the totals board, 6 of 8 games reached STRONG, with the other two landing on Lean. There are no Split or low-sample rows on the totals side today.
Nine of twelve moneyline sources (75%, STRONG) land on Arizona while the market still prices the Diamondbacks at plus money at home. A second overlay clears today as well: San Francisco +104 at Texas (8:05 PM ET), 6 of 9 sources at 66%. Overlay applies to the moneyline board only — Over/Under is priced near even on both sides, so the totals board shows the consensus line instead.
Moneyline Consensus Board
| Matchup | Start (ET) | Consensus | Agree | Sources | Odds | Tier | Overlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington @ Philadelphia | 6:40 PM | Phillies | 91% | 11 of 12 | -144 | STRONG | |
| St. Louis @ NY Yankees | 7:05 PM | Yankees | 100% | 12 of 12 | -178 | STRONG | |
| Pittsburgh @ Milwaukee | 7:40 PM | Brewers | 88% | 8 of 9 | -135 | STRONG | |
| San Francisco @ Texas | 8:05 PM | Giants | 66% | 6 of 9 | +104 | STRONG | ✓ |
| Toronto @ Houston | 8:10 PM | Astros | 80% | 8 of 10 | -122 | STRONG | |
| Tampa Bay @ Colorado | 8:40 PM | Rays | 72% | 8 of 11 | -148 | STRONG | |
| San Diego @ Arizona | 9:40 PM | Diamondbacks | 75% | 9 of 12 | +104 | STRONG | ✓ |
| LA Dodgers @ Chi. Cubs | 8:05 PM | Dodgers | 50% | 7 of 14 | -120 | Split |
Totals Consensus Board — Over/Under
| Matchup | Start (ET) | Consensus | Agree | Sources | Line | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington @ Philadelphia | 6:40 PM | Over | 83% | 5 of 6 | O 9.0 | STRONG |
| San Francisco @ Texas | 8:05 PM | Under | 71% | 5 of 7 | U 8.5 | STRONG |
| LA Dodgers @ Chi. Cubs | 8:05 PM | Under | 66% | 4 of 6 | U 8.0 | STRONG |
| Toronto @ Houston | 8:10 PM | Over | 77% | 7 of 9 | O 9.0 | STRONG |
| Tampa Bay @ Colorado | 8:40 PM | Over | 77% | 7 of 9 | O 11.5 | STRONG |
| San Diego @ Arizona | 9:40 PM | Under | 80% | 8 of 10 | U 9.0 | STRONG |
| St. Louis @ NY Yankees | 7:05 PM | Under | 57% | 4 of 7 | U 8.0 | Lean |
| Pittsburgh @ Milwaukee | 7:40 PM | Over | 60% | 6 of 10 | O 8.5 | Lean |
Graded Result
Moneyline consensus went 4–3 (57.1% right), +0.29u, +4.1% ROI. STRONG: 4–3. Overlays: 2–0.
Totals consensus went 3–4 (42.9% right), −1.27u, −18.1% ROI. STRONG: 3–2. Pushes: 1.
Correction: San Diego @ Arizona — the board posted Arizona at +104 and tagged it an Overlay, but ESPN’s closing moneyline had Arizona at −114 (San Diego −108), a slight favorite rather than plus money. That pick is graded at −114 (+0.88u instead of +1.04u), and the Overlay tag does not hold against the closing line.
Moneyline
| Matchup | Consensus | Odds | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington @ Philadelphia | Phillies | -144 | ✓ | +0.69 |
| St. Louis @ NY Yankees | Yankees | -178 | ✗ | -1.00 |
| Pittsburgh @ Milwaukee | Brewers | -135 | ✗ | -1.00 |
| San Francisco @ Texas | Giants | +104 | ✓ | +1.04 |
| Toronto @ Houston | Astros | -122 | ✗ | -1.00 |
| Tampa Bay @ Colorado | Rays | -148 | ✓ | +0.68 |
| San Diego @ Arizona | Diamondbacks | -114* | ✓ | +0.88 |
| LA Dodgers @ Chi. Cubs | Split — no pick | — | — | — |
Totals (Over/Under)
| Matchup | Consensus | Line | Final Total | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington @ Philadelphia | Over | 9.0 | 9 | — | 0.00 |
| San Francisco @ Texas | Under | 8.5 | 6 | ✓ | +0.91 |
| LA Dodgers @ Chi. Cubs | Under | 8.0 | 15 | ✗ | -1.00 |
| Toronto @ Houston | Over | 9.0 | 4 | ✗ | -1.00 |
| Tampa Bay @ Colorado | Over | 11.5 | 22 | ✓ | +0.91 |
| San Diego @ Arizona | Under | 9.0 | 6 | ✓ | +0.91 |
| St. Louis @ NY Yankees | Under | 8.0 | 20 | ✗ | -1.00 |
| Pittsburgh @ Milwaukee | Over | 8.5 | 7 | ✗ | -1.00 |
Moneyline units assume a 1-unit stake at the listed price. Totals graded at standard −110 juice (win +0.91u, loss −1.00u, push 0u); pushes excluded from the record and hit rate. *Odds verified against ESPN closing line.
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