MLB Sportsbook Consensus Picks — Thursday, July 30, 2026
Aggregated from public computer-model sites, Action Network expert picks, and free handicapper sites, flat-weighted with one vote per capper per board per game. Moneyline board: 84 picks across 9 games (5 model sites • 14 Action Network expert picks • 25 free-site picks). Totals board: 74 picks across 9 games (4 totals-publishing model sites • 15 Action Network Over/Under picks • 24 free-site Over/Under picks). Consensus locked at approximately 1:15 PM ET, before first pitch on the full board. All start times Eastern.
Thursday’s board covers the 9 MLB games that had not yet started when the consensus was locked; the earlier Rangers–Rays game is excluded. The moneyline board produced 6 STRONG reads out of 9 games, plus 2 Leans and 1 Split. The totals board produced 4 STRONG reads out of 9, with the other 5 landing on Lean.
Moneyline Consensus Board
| Matchup | Start (ET) | Consensus | Agree | Sources | Odds | Tier | Overlay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | 9:40 PM | Boston Red Sox | 80% | 8/10 | -167 | STRONG | |
| Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:10 PM | Los Angeles Dodgers | 77% | 7/9 | -148 | STRONG | |
| Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | 2:15 PM | Chicago Cubs | 75% | 6/8 | +105 | STRONG | ✓ |
| Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | 7:15 PM | Atlanta Braves | 75% | 6/8 | -144 | STRONG | |
| New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | 2:10 PM | Chicago White Sox | 70% | 7/10 | -108 | STRONG | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | 7:10 PM | Pittsburgh Pirates | 70% | 7/10 | -109 | STRONG | |
| Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | 1:40 PM | Minnesota Twins | 55% | 5/9 | -129 | Lean | |
| Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | 7:10 PM | Miami Marlins | 55% | 5/9 | +116 | Lean | ✓ |
| San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | 9:40 PM | San Diego Padres | 54% | 6/11 | -141 | Split |
Totals Consensus Board — Over/Under
| Matchup | Start (ET) | Consensus | Agree | Sources | Line | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | 9:40 PM | Under | 85% | 6/7 | U 8.5 | STRONG |
| Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | 2:15 PM | Under | 75% | 6/8 | U 8.5 | STRONG |
| Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | 7:15 PM | Over | 72% | 8/11 | O 9.5 | STRONG |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | 7:10 PM | Over | 71% | 5/7 | O 9.5 | STRONG |
| Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | 7:10 PM | Over | 57% | 4/7 | O 7 | Lean |
| Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | 9:40 PM | Under | 57% | 4/7 | U 10 | Lean |
| Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | 1:40 PM | Over | 55% | 5/9 | O 9 | Lean |
| New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | 2:10 PM | Under | 55% | 5/9 | U 7.5 | Lean |
| Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 10:10 PM | Over | 55% | 5/9 | O 8.5 | Lean |
Graded Result
Moneyline consensus went 6–2 (75.0% right), +2.61u, +32.7% ROI. STRONG: 5–1. Overlays: 1–1.
Totals consensus went 4–5 (44.4% right), −1.36u, −15.1% ROI. STRONG: 2–2. Pushes: 0.
Correction: Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals — the board posted the Cubs at +105 (flagged Overlay), but ESPN’s closing moneyline had the Cubs at −106, a slight favorite rather than a plus-money dog. Graded and unit-counted at the verified −106 (+0.94u instead of +1.05u); the Overlay flag on that game did not hold at close. San Francisco @ San Diego was tiered Split on the moneyline board and is graded NO PICK.
Moneyline
| Matchup | Consensus | Odds | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Boston Red Sox | -167 | ✓ | +0.60 |
| Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | -148 | ✓ | +0.68 |
| Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Chicago Cubs | -106* | ✓ | +0.94 |
| Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | -144 | ✓ | +0.69 |
| New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | -108 | ✓ | +0.93 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Pittsburgh Pirates | -109 | ✗ | -1.00 |
| Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | -129 | ✓ | +0.78 |
| Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Miami Marlins | +116 | ✗ | -1.00 |
| San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Split — no pick | — | — | 0.00 |
Totals
| Matchup | Consensus | Line | Final Total | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres | Under | 8.5 | 5 | ✓ | +0.91 |
| Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Under | 8.5 | 6 | ✓ | +0.91 |
| Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves | Over | 9.5 | 9 | ✗ | -1.00 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds | Over | 9.5 | 5 | ✗ | -1.00 |
| Miami Marlins @ New York Mets | Over | 7 | 6 | ✗ | -1.00 |
| Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Under | 10 | 9 | ✓ | +0.91 |
| Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Over | 9 | 7 | ✗ | -1.00 |
| New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Under | 7.5 | 3 | ✓ | +0.91 |
| Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Over | 8.5 | 8 | ✗ | -1.00 |
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