MLB Sportsbook Consensus — Weekly Report Card (Oct 12 – Oct 18, 2026)

Who was hot

Lou Aguila (Sportytrader) led the expert field for the week of Oct 12–18, going a perfect 3-0-0 (100%) for +4.60 units on 3 graded picks — all three on the Rays -1.5 run line at plus money (+159 in ALCS Game 2, +163 in Game 4 and +138 in Game 5). Right behind him: Mike Goodpaster (The Grueling Truth) at 7-3-0 (70.0%), +3.54 units on 10 picks, and Joe Jensen (Predictem) at 4-2-0 (66.7%), +2.30 units on 6 picks. Goodpaster closed the week 3-0 across ALCS Games 4 and 5, including both sides of the Game 5 Rays ML / Under 6.5 pairing; Jensen cashed the Brewers at +149 in NLCS Game 3, the Under 6.5 in ALCS Game 3 and the Rays in Game 4. (Minimum 3 graded picks to rank; full-game picks graded at a flat 1 unit from the price we logged; first-five picks are kept out of these records.)

The card

LEAN went 5-3-0 for +1.79 units on the week and STRONG went 2-5-0 for -3.32 units, so the card finished 7-8-0, -1.53u (LEAN +1.79u / STRONG -3.32u). The one first-five play, a LEAN F5 Under 3.5 on Oct 15, lost (-1.00u) and is reported separately, outside the tier totals. There were no FADE-WATCH tags this week, and the Oct 16 ALCS Game 4 plays were graded NO ACTION after the rainout.

Season to date: card 30-20-1, +5.84u — STRONG 9-11-1 (-2.55u) and LEAN 21-9-0 (+8.39u). By market, STRONG is 2-1 on the run line (+0.86u), 2-4 on moneylines (-1.87u) and 5-6-1 on totals (-1.54u); LEAN is 3-1 on the run line (+0.61u), 9-4 on moneylines (+3.70u) and 9-4 on totals (+4.08u). FADE-WATCH is 0-1 at 0 units.

Market check

LEAN moneylines carried the week at 4-2 (+1.83u): the Rays in ALCS Games 2, 4 and 5 and the Brewers at +146 in NLCS Game 3. LEAN totals split 1-1 (-0.04u), and there were no LEAN run-line plays.

STRONG totals were the soft spot at 2-3 (-1.32u). The two that cashed — the Under 7 in ALCS Game 2 and the Under 6.5 in Game 5 — both had two confirmed, conventional starters. Two of the three that lost (NLCS Games 2 and 4) went off with Milwaukee’s starter unannounced at capture, and Game 4 turned into a Brewers bullpen game; the third, NLCS Game 3, was 1-0 through five before seven of the eight runs came in the sixth inning or later. STRONG’s only moneyline and run-line plays of the week were the same side in ALCS Game 1 (the Rays), and both lost when Cleveland won 7-3 (0-1, -1.00u each).

Every graded play this week

F5 play graded on the five-inning score and kept out of the tier totals. Oct 16 (ALCS Game 4, Rays @ Guardians, postponed by rain): STRONG Under 6.5 and LEAN Guardians +1.5 graded NO ACTION, 0.00u; Oct 16 lines were not carried to the Oct 17 replay.

Takeaway for next week

What we are watching: STRONG totals posted when a starter is still unannounced at capture. This week STRONG Unders went 2-0 with both starters confirmed and 0-2 with Milwaukee’s starter unannounced, so going forward I am flagging any STRONG total logged before both probables are confirmed in the play notes, and I will report those plays as their own split in this recap so we can see whether the pattern holds over a bigger sample.

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