NBA Sportsbook Consensus Grading Recap — Friday, November 6, 2026

Freddy Diaz of HispanosNBA went 10-3 for +5.13 units on Friday, the best day of the 43 experts we graded across nine NBA games. He cashed the Celtics, Mavericks, Raptors and Timberwolves moneylines and hit six of his seven totals. That takes him to 22-6 (+10.82u) with us this season, tied for the heaviest weight in the consensus.

Kim Smith (Picks and Parlays) went 5-1 for +2.72u: Thunder ML, Mavericks ML, Under 229.5 in Oklahoma City-Memphis, Under 235.5 in Utah-Dallas and Over 238.5 in Portland-L.A. Her only miss was Portland +3.5. She is now 78-49 (+15.31u) on our ledger, the top NBA record by units. Peter Tran (Sports Chat Place) went 4-1 for +2.64u on spreads, with Lakers -2.5, Thunder -4, Raptors -7 and Timberwolves -4.5 all covering. He is 29-24 (+2.43u) for the season.

Three more experts went unbeaten: Ben Dezell (Pickswise) 2-0, +2.06u, on Cavaliers ML and Thunder -3.5; Kyrone Jones (Sportsgambler) 2-0, +1.90u, on Celtics -8.5 and Raptors -7.5; and Josh Schonwald (Doc’s Sports) 2-0, +1.82u, on Celtics -7.5 and Raptors -6.5. Schonwald is now 20-11 (+7.24u) with us. The whole field went 93-61-3 (60.4%).

The consensus card went 7-5 for +0.10u. STRONG went 7-3 (+2.10u) and LEAN went 0-2 (-2.00u). By market, the STRONG plays went 3-0 on moneylines (+1.34u), 2-0 on spreads (+1.86u) and 2-3 on totals (-1.10u). Every play is graded at the line we posted.

What actually happened

Celtics 119, Hornets 80. Both STRONG plays here cashed early. Charlotte was without Kon Knueppel (hamstring) and Moussa Diabate, and Brandon Miller left in the second quarter with groin soreness and did not return. Boston led 40-20 after one, made 17 of 31 threes in the first half and led by 42 in the third. Jayson Tatum had 34 points in about 29 minutes. Celtics -8.5 covered by 30.5, and 199 total points cleared the Under 207.5 by 8.5.

Timberwolves 115, Pelicans 109. This one was close until late. New Orleans led 89-87 with 7:55 left, then Minnesota closed on a 15-4 run and won the fourth quarter 38-30. Ayo Dosunmu scored 26 and Jaden McDaniels 23. The six-point win covered -4.5.

Raptors 121, Bucks 107. Toronto was missing Kawhi Leonard, Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley. It trailed 60-51 at the half and by as many as 15, then outscored Milwaukee 34-18 in the fourth. Alijah Martin, off the bench, and RJ Barrett each scored 27, Martin’s a career high. The Raptors ML cashed. The Over 230.5 stopped at 228 because Milwaukee scored only 18 in the fourth quarter.

Thunder 128, Grizzlies 97. Oklahoma City led by 25 before halftime and opened the third on a 12-0 run. It forced 18 turnovers worth 30 points, and Memphis shot 22% from three. The Thunder ML was never in doubt. The Under 224.5 lost by half a point at 225, because the injury-thinned OKC offense the Under was built on produced 128 by itself. Ajay Mitchell scored a career-high 35 and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 28. Experts who logged the Under earlier at 226.5 or 229.5 cashed it.

Mavericks 112, Jazz 100. The game was tied 57-57 at halftime. Dallas then went on a 22-10 third-quarter run behind Cooper Flagg and Kyrie Irving and kept a double-digit lead. P.J. Washington had a season-high 26 with six threes. The Mavericks ML cashed.

Lakers 124, Trail Blazers 118. Luka Dončić scored 53, 20 of them in the third quarter, after Portland had led by 16. The Lakers scored 17 straight in the third and went on a 32-11 run. 242 total points cleared the Over 231.5 by 10.5.

Hawks 139, Wizards 132. Both plays lost on the merits. The Under 228.5 needed a slow game, and both offenses scored freely. Washington, playing without Anthony Davis (ankle), got 33 points from Kyshawn George and 23 from Trae Young in his return to Atlanta. Atlanta was without Jalen Johnson and still scored 139, led by Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s 28. The game finished 42.5 points over the number. The LEAN Hawks -7.5 came down to the final seconds. Atlanta led 135-132 with 14 seconds left, and free throws stretched the lead to exactly seven, half a point short.

Cavaliers 119, 76ers 95. The LEAN 76ers -2.5 was beaten on the merits. Cleveland did sit Jarrett Allen (knee), one of the absences the play was built around, and still led wire to wire, by as many as 25. Philadelphia shot 36.5% overall and 10-of-40 from three, and Joel Embiid went 0-for-9.

The card, by tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	Units
STRONG	7-3-0	70%	+2.10u
LEAN	0-2-0	0%	-2.00u
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	7-5-0	58%	+0.10u

Every play is graded at the line we posted.

Every play

Result	Tier	Play	Line	Final	Grading
✅ WIN	STRONG	Timberwolves @ Pelicans — Timberwolves -4.5	-105 DraftKings	Timberwolves 115-109 Pelicans	Timberwolves 115, Pelicans 109 → Timberwolves by 6, covers -4.5 · +0.95u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Celtics @ Hornets — Celtics -8.5	-110 DraftKings	Celtics 119-80 Hornets	Celtics 119, Hornets 80 → Celtics by 39, covers -8.5 · +0.91u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Celtics @ Hornets — Under 207.5	-105 DraftKings	Celtics 119-80 Hornets	119 + 80 = 199, Under 207.5 cashes · +0.95u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Wizards @ Hawks — Under 228.5	-112 DraftKings	Wizards 132-139 Hawks	132 + 139 = 271, Under 228.5 loses · -1.00u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Raptors @ Bucks — Raptors ML -257	-257 DraftKings	Raptors 121-107 Bucks	Raptors 121, Bucks 107 → Raptors win · +0.39u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Raptors @ Bucks — Over 230.5	-106 DraftKings	Raptors 121-107 Bucks	121 + 107 = 228, Over 230.5 loses · -1.00u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Thunder @ Grizzlies — Thunder ML -170	-170 DraftKings	Thunder 128-97 Grizzlies	Thunder 128, Grizzlies 97 → Thunder win · +0.59u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Thunder @ Grizzlies — Under 224.5	-113 DraftKings	Thunder 128-97 Grizzlies	128 + 97 = 225, Under 224.5 loses · -1.00u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Jazz @ Mavericks — Mavericks ML -277	-277 DraftKings	Jazz 100-112 Mavericks	Mavericks 112, Jazz 100 → Mavericks win · +0.36u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Trail Blazers @ Lakers — Over 231.5	-105 DraftKings	Trail Blazers 118-124 Lakers	118 + 124 = 242, Over 231.5 cashes · +0.95u
❌ LOSS	LEAN	76ers @ Cavaliers — 76ers -2.5	-110 DraftKings	76ers 95-119 Cavaliers	76ers 95, Cavaliers 119 → 76ers lose by 24, misses -2.5 · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	LEAN	Wizards @ Hawks — Hawks -7.5	-116 DraftKings	Wizards 132-139 Hawks	Hawks 139, Wizards 132 → Hawks by 7, misses -7.5 · -1.00u

Best call: Celtics -8.5 (STRONG): Boston won by 39. Charlotte lost Brandon Miller in the second quarter on top of Kon Knueppel’s absence, and the Celtics made 17 threes in the first half.

Worst beat: Two half-point losses. Thunder-Grizzlies finished at 225 against the Under 224.5, with OKC scoring 128 on Ajay Mitchell’s career-high 35. Hawks -7.5 lost when late free throws made a three-point game with 14 seconds left a seven-point final.

Expert scoreboard — Friday, Nov 6

We graded 157 picks from 43 experts and models. The field went 93-61 (60.4%) against the consensus card’s 7-5 (58%).

Top of the day	Pick	Record	Units
HispanosNBA – Freddy Diaz	Celtics ML -200; Raptors ML -139; Mavericks ML -200; Timberwolves ML -105; 6 of 7 totals	10-3-0	+5.13u
Picks and Parlays – Kim Smith	Thunder ML -170; Mavericks ML -250; Under 229.5; Under 235.5; Over 238.5	5-1-0	+2.72u
Sports Chat Place – Peter Tran	Lakers -2.5; Thunder -4; Raptors -7; Timberwolves -4.5	4-1-0	+2.64u
Pickswise – Ben Dezell	Cavaliers ML +115; Thunder -3.5 (-110)	2-0-0	+2.06u
Sportsgambler – Kyrone Jones	Celtics -8.5 (-105); Raptors -7.5 (-105)	2-0-0	+1.90u
Doc's Sports – Josh Schonwald	Celtics -7.5; Raptors -6.5	2-0-0	+1.82u

Also on the right side: Ryan Gilbert (Sports Illustrated) and Jordan Harlow (TheRx) each went 3-1 (+1.73u), and Adepoju Marvellous (Sports Mole) went 3-1 (+1.41u). FanDuel Research cashed Cavaliers ML +120 for +1.20u. At the bottom of the day, Elijah Jackson (Sportsgambler) went 0-3 (-3.00u) on Wizards +6.5, 76ers ML and Grizzlies +3.5. Jay Cooper (Ultimate Capper) went 3-5-1 (-2.27u), and Napier Montgomery (Pickswise) went 0-2 (-2.00u).

Season leaders (NBA, graded with us)	Record	Units	Consensus weight
Picks and Parlays – Kim Smith	78-49	+15.31u	1.23
Cappers Picks – Tamberlyn Richardson	23-7	+13.93u	1.28
HispanosNBA – Freddy Diaz	22-6	+10.82u	1.28
WagerTalk – Kyle Kargel	27-16	+7.76u	1.15
Doc's Sports – Tony Sink	26-16	+7.70u	1.14
Doc's Sports – Josh Schonwald	20-11	+7.24u	1.14
SportsLine Model	11-4	+6.01u	1.14

How this changes the card

Freddy Diaz (HispanosNBA, 22-6) now carries a 1.28 weight in the consensus, tied for the top with Tamberlyn Richardson (Cappers Picks, 23-7). Kim Smith (Picks and Parlays, 78-49) is at 1.23 and Josh Schonwald (Doc’s Sports, 20-11) at 1.14. At the other end, Napier Montgomery (Pickswise) passed the 15-decided-pick mark today at 5-11 and enters at 0.85. Elijah Jackson (Sportsgambler, 10-15) is at 0.88, and Jay Cooper (Ultimate Capper, 49-60-1) is at 0.82. Fifty experts are now rated.

Season to date

Tier	All	Spread	Moneyline	Total	Units
STRONG	60-41	24-16	11-3	25-22	+9.41u
LEAN	17-17	12-11	1-3	4-3	-2.25u
FADE-WATCH (not staked)	2-3	2-2	0-1	—	—
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	77-58				+7.16u

Every card, every sport: the full consensus record.

All nine games finished in regulation. Expert rows with no posted odds are graded at -110. HispanosNBA rows quoted in decimal odds are graded at the American price listed beside them. Pushes: Hawks -7 (TheSpread.com – Paul Elliot), Spurs -15 (Ultimate Capper – Jay Cooper) and Over 228 in Raptors-Bucks (StatsAlt – Kim Smith).

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