NBA Sportsbook Consensus Grading Recap — Saturday, October 24, 2026

Jon Metler of Covers went 7-1 for +5.37u on Saturday, cashing seven of his eight moneyline sides (76ers, Cavaliers, Spurs, Wizards, Rockets, Nuggets and Suns); only the Heat let him down. That pulls him back to 19-19 with us this season. Kim Smith of Picks and Parlays was perfect at 5-0 (+4.55u) on the Hornets, 76ers, Cavaliers, Nuggets and Suns and now sits at 31-23, +5.33u on the season. Eddie Kline of StatsAlt went 5-1 (+3.55u), hitting Bucks +12.5, Nets +11 and three of his four totals.

Three more experts ran the table at 3-0: Tamberlyn Richardson of Cappers Picks (Rockets +1.5, Spurs -11.5, Warriors +9.5), who is now 9-1, +7.19u with us and leads the NBA season in units; Cameron Ross of StatsAlt; and the AM 1300 The Zone Model, which took all three Rockets angles. We logged 162 picks from 36 experts across all eight games, and the field went 88-74.

The consensus card went 5-3 for +1.50u. STRONG went 4-0 (+3.55u) and LEAN went 1-3 (-2.05u). The FADE-WATCH play on Hawks -1.5 lost and carries no units. Every play is graded at the line we posted.

What actually happened

All four STRONG plays won. In Philadelphia the 76ers beat the Bucks 127-116 with LeBron James ruled out (back). Joel Embiid posted a 28-point triple-double, and Milwaukee got within 120-114 late before a Kentavious Caldwell-Pope three restored a nine-point lead. The 11-point margin left Bucks +12.5 covering by a point and a half. In Dallas the Spurs won 122-106, with Cooper Flagg (shoulder) out and Kyrie Irving sitting the second night of a back-to-back. The game stood 92-89 after three quarters, and San Antonio opened the fourth on a 17-5 run. The 228 combined points landed under 230.5, and the same game sank the LEAN on Mavericks +11.5 by four and a half.

Washington beat Chicago 124-120 to cash both Wizards plays, the +1.5 and the moneyline. The Wizards won the third quarter 40-20 while the Bulls shot 7 of 23 in it. Chicago cut a 21-point deficit with a 16-4 small-ball run late, but couldn’t finish the comeback.

The LEAN losses were decided on the court. Charlotte beat Miami 115-110 even without Kon Knueppel and Coby White, after a 24-7 third-quarter run and 34 points from Brandon Miller. Giannis Antetokounmpo spent the night in foul trouble and fouled out with 1:57 left. In Denver, New Orleans shot 65.9% in the first half and led by 23. The Nuggets came back to win 141-135 in overtime behind 42 points from Jamal Murray and a Nikola Jokic triple-double, but they never got near -11.5. The one LEAN winner was Warriors +9.5. Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Brandin Podziemski and Al Horford all sat, and the card had flagged the Curry news as a caveat. Devin Booker scored 43, but Phoenix’s 15-point lead shrank to a 131-122 final, and +9.5 covered by half a point.

On the FADE-WATCH game, Houston won 121-114 in Atlanta’s home opener. The Rockets built a 20-point lead on 22 second-chance points, and the Hawks shot 12 of 45 from three.

The card, by tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	Units
STRONG	4-0-0	100%	+3.55u
LEAN	1-3-0	25%	-2.05u
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	5-3-0	63%	+1.50u
FADE-WATCH (tracked, not staked)	0-1-0	0%	+0.00u

Every play is graded at the line we posted.

Every play

Result	Tier	Play	Line	Final	Grading
✅ WIN	STRONG	Bucks @ 76ers — Bucks +12.5	+12.5 (-110) DraftKings	Bucks 116-127 76ers	Bucks 116-127 76ers → Bucks 116+12.5 = 128.5 vs 127 → WIN · +0.91u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Spurs @ Mavericks — Under 230.5	230.5 (-110) DraftKings	Spurs 122-106 Mavericks	122 + 106 = 228; Under 230.5 → WIN · +0.91u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Wizards @ Bulls — Wizards +1.5	+1.5 (-122) DraftKings	Wizards 124-120 Bulls	Wizards 124-120 Bulls → Wizards 124+1.5 = 125.5 vs 120 → WIN · +0.82u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Wizards @ Bulls — Wizards ML -110	ML -110 DraftKings	Wizards 124-120 Bulls	Wizards 124-120 Bulls; Wizards win ML · +0.91u
❌ LOSS	LEAN	Heat @ Hornets — Heat -3.5	-3.5 (-110) DraftKings	Heat 110-115 Hornets	Heat 110-115 Hornets → Heat 110-3.5 = 106.5 vs 115 → LOSS · -1.00u
✅ WIN	LEAN	Warriors @ Suns — Warriors +9.5	+9.5 (-105) DraftKings	Warriors 122-131 Suns	Warriors 122-131 Suns → Warriors 122+9.5 = 131.5 vs 131 → WIN · +0.95u
❌ LOSS	LEAN	Spurs @ Mavericks — Mavericks +11.5	+11.5 (-110) DraftKings	Spurs 122-106 Mavericks	Spurs 122-106 Mavericks → Mavericks 106+11.5 = 117.5 vs 122 → LOSS · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	LEAN	Pelicans @ Nuggets — Nuggets -11.5	-11.5 (-110) DraftKings	Pelicans 135-141 Nuggets (OT)	Pelicans 135-141 Nuggets (OT) → Nuggets 141-11.5 = 129.5 vs 135 → LOSS · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	FADE-WATCH	Rockets @ Hawks — Hawks -1.5	-1.5 (-110) DraftKings	Rockets 121-114 Hawks	Rockets 121-114 Hawks → Hawks 114-1.5 = 112.5 vs 121 → LOSS · +0.00u

Best call: STRONG Bucks +12.5 (-110): 9 of 12 experts said 12.5 was too many points. With LeBron James out, Philadelphia never pulled away far enough. The Bucks got within six late, and the 127-116 final covered by 1.5.

Worst beat: LEAN Nuggets -11.5 (-110): New Orleans shot 65.9% in the first half and led by 23. Denver needed a fourth-quarter rally just to force overtime and won by six, 141-135. The experts were beaten on the merits.

Expert scoreboard — Saturday, Oct 24

We graded 162 picks from 36 experts and models. The field went 88-74 (54.3%) against the consensus card’s 5-3 (63%).

Top of the day	Pick	Record	Units
Covers – Jon Metler	76ers, Cavaliers, Spurs, Wizards, Rockets, Nuggets, Suns ML	7-1-0	+5.37u
Picks and Parlays – Kim Smith	Hornets, 76ers, Cavaliers, Nuggets, Suns ML	5-0-0	+4.55u
StatsAlt – Eddie Kline	Bucks +12.5, Nets +11, Overs 232.5 x2, Under 232.5	5-1-0	+3.55u
iHeart – AM 1300 The Zone Model	Rockets +1.5, Rockets ML +102, Over 229.5	3-0-0	+2.84u
Cappers Picks – Tamberlyn Richardson	Rockets +1.5, Spurs -11.5, Warriors +9.5	3-0-0	+2.73u
StatsAlt – Cameron Ross	Rockets +1.5, Over 230.5, Under 230.5	3-0-0	+2.73u

Others on the right side: Napier Montgomery (Pickswise) 2-0, +2.21u, with Hornets ML +130 and Over 227.5; Matt Moore (Action Network) 2-0, +1.86u; Josh Schonwald (Doc’s Sports) 2-0, +1.82u; Paul Elliot (TheSpread.com) 2-0, +1.78u; Randy Chambers (Pick Dawgz) 3-1, +1.80u. At the bottom of the day: Marcus Reeds (ScoresAndStats) went 1-6 (-4.70u) on underdog moneylines, the Dimers Model 3-7 (-4.13u), Joe Jensen (Predictem) 0-4 (-4.00u), and the SportsGrid Model 11-13 (-3.38u) across 24 picks.

Season leaders (NBA, graded with us)	Record	Units	Consensus weight
Cappers Picks – Tamberlyn Richardson	9-1	+7.19u	1.00 (10 of 15 decided)
Winners and Whiners – Alex MacMillan	10-2	+7.14u	1.00 (12 of 15 decided)
Pick Dawgz – Randy Chambers	12-5	+6.03u	1.13
Picks and Parlays – Kim Smith	31-23	+5.33u	1.08
TheSpread.com – Alex Becker	6-1	+4.50u	1.00 (7 of 15 decided)
Doc's Sports – Josh Schonwald	7-2	+4.33u	1.00 (9 of 15 decided)
WagerTalk – Kyle Kargel	16-11	+3.91u	1.07

How this changes the card

After Saturday, 15 experts have reached the 15 decided picks needed for a rating, up from 10. Randy Chambers (Pick Dawgz) qualifies at 12-5 and now carries the heaviest weight in the consensus at 1.13. Kim Smith (Picks and Parlays) moves up from 1.01 to 1.08 at 31-23, and Jon Metler (Covers) climbs from 0.86 to 0.97 at 19-19. The Dimers Model (15-21) drops from 0.94 to 0.86 and the iHeart Model (23-28) from 0.90 to 0.88. The SportsGrid Model (11-13) and Joe Jensen of Predictem (7-10) qualify below 1.00. These weights apply to future cards only; Saturday’s card was built before these changes.

Season to date

Tier	All	Spread	Moneyline	Total	Units
STRONG	15-6	6-2	1-1	8-3	+7.54u
LEAN	6-5	5-4	—	1-1	+0.46u
FADE-WATCH (not staked)	0-2	0-1	0-1	—	—
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	21-11				+8.00u

Every card, every sport: the full consensus record.

Pelicans-Nuggets went to overtime; OT counts for every market. Expert rows logged with no sportsbook price or only a line at capture are graded at -110, which includes all of Jon Metler’s and Kim Smith’s moneylines. The Dimers Model’s Pelicans +10.5 had no price and is graded at +10.5 (-110). All 162 expert rows and all 9 card plays were graded; none were rejected.

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