NBA Sportsbook Consensus Grading Recap — Sunday, November 8, 2026

Kim Smith of StatsAlt had the best Sunday of the 35 experts we graded, going 7-2 for +4.37u. She called the Under in Nets-Mavericks (93 + 130 = 223 against 223.5), the Over in Pelicans-Clippers and the Heat, Mavericks, Timberwolves and 76ers on the moneyline. That moves her StatsAlt record with us to 52-33-1 (+5.29u). Her Picks and Parlays card added a clean 2-0 (+1.82u) and runs 80-50 (+16.13u) with us, one of the best season lines we track.

The iHeart Model went 12-6 (+3.55u) across 18 picks and is 129-110 this season. Elijah Jackson of Sportsgambler went 3-0 (+2.79u) with Lakers +4.5, Celtics -12.5 and Kings +8.5. Kyrone Jones of Sportsgambler went 2-0 (+1.90u) on Mavericks -9.5 and Over 230.5 in Pelicans-Clippers. That gets him to 9-6 and the 15 decided picks he needed to qualify for the ratings. Jon Metler of Covers had the best single price of the night, Lakers moneyline at +155 (+1.55u).

The consensus card went 4-4 for -1.11u. STRONG went 3-2 (0.00u) and LEAN went 1-2 (-1.11u). Every play is graded at the line we posted.

What actually happened

Timberwolves -11.5 cashed. Minnesota beat Utah 115-100. The Jazz played without Lauri Markkanen (wrist), the absence the card’s case leaned on. A LaMelo Ball steal-and-dunk and a quick seven points from Bones Hyland turned a 70-63 game into a 90-72 lead after three quarters. Utah then opened the fourth 0-for-9. Ayo Dosunmu scored 26.

The Over 226.5 in Pelicans-Clippers cleared by 35.5 points. The Clippers shot a season-best 54.8% and their bench outscored New Orleans’ bench 59-38 in a 139-123 win that snapped a seven-game skid. Trey Murphy III (26), Jeremiah Fears (25) and a 9-for-9 Zion Williamson (25) kept the Pelicans’ end of the total up. That same Clippers bench beat the LEAN on Pelicans -1.5. New Orleans led 78-77 in the third, but the Clippers opened the fourth on a 15-6 run and pulled away. Nobody was hurt and the premise held. The consensus was beaten on the merits.

Celtics moneyline (-750) cashed easily, 117-97 at Milwaukee. The Bucks led early, then Boston’s 18-0 surge across the first and second quarters flipped the game. Paul George scored 27 and Jayson Tatum sat the whole fourth quarter. Kings +10.5 also cashed in a 114-108 Heat win. Keegan Murray and De’Andre Hunter both played, and Sacramento’s 14-0 fourth-quarter run tied the game before Giannis Antetokounmpo (29 points) closed it out.

The Under 237.5 in 76ers-Bulls lost, 127-121 (248 points). Joel Embiid played. Philadelphia grabbed 20 offensive rebounds for 33 second-chance points, the very volume the card expected Chicago’s thin frontcourt to limit, but here it was the Sixers getting it. Jaylen Brown (29), Tyrese Maxey (27) and LeBron James (22) all scored freely. The consensus was beaten on the merits.

Nets +7.5 lost, 130-93. On the second night of a back-to-back after Saturday’s loss in Atlanta, Brooklyn trailed wire to wire. Dallas shot a season-best 57.1% and Cooper Flagg had 25 points and a career-high 12 assists. The schedule worry flagged on the card is what showed up. Pistons -4.5 lost, 121-116. Luka Doncic sat, as several experts expected, so the premise held. But the Lakers won the first quarter 38-14 and Austin Reaves scored 43. Detroit got within 109-104 in the final minute before Reaves hit a one-legged, shot-clock-beating three. The consensus was beaten on the merits.

The card, by tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	Units
STRONG	3-2-0	60%	+0.00u
LEAN	1-2-0	33%	-1.11u
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	4-4-0	50%	-1.11u

Every play is graded at the line we posted.

Every play

Result	Tier	Play	Line	Final	Grading
❌ LOSS	STRONG	76ers @ Bulls — Under 237.5 (-110)	Under 237.5 (-110) DraftKings	76ers 127-121 Bulls	127 + 121 = 248, Under 237.5 loses ❌ · -1.00u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Jazz @ Timberwolves — Timberwolves -11.5 (-106)	-11.5 (-106) DraftKings	Timberwolves 115-100 Jazz	Timberwolves 115, Jazz 100 → Timberwolves by 15, -11.5 (-106) covers ✅ · +0.94u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Nets @ Mavericks — Nets +7.5 (-104)	+7.5 (-104) DraftKings	Mavericks 130-93 Nets	Nets 93, Mavericks 130 → Nets lose by 37, +7.5 (-104) fails ❌ · -1.00u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Pelicans @ Clippers — Over 226.5 (-108)	Over 226.5 (-108) DraftKings	Clippers 139-123 Pelicans	123 + 139 = 262, Over 226.5 cashes ✅ · +0.93u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Celtics @ Bucks — Celtics ML -750	-750 DraftKings	Celtics 117-97 Bucks	Celtics 117, Bucks 97 → Celtics win outright ✅ · +0.13u
❌ LOSS	LEAN	Lakers @ Pistons — Pistons -4.5 (-115)	-4.5 (-115) DraftKings	Lakers 121-116 Pistons	Pistons 116, Lakers 121 → Pistons lose by 5, -4.5 (-115) fails ❌ · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	LEAN	Pelicans @ Clippers — Pelicans -1.5 (-110)	-1.5 (-110) DraftKings	Clippers 139-123 Pelicans	Pelicans 123, Clippers 139 → Pelicans lose by 16, -1.5 (-110) fails ❌ · -1.00u
✅ WIN	LEAN	Heat @ Kings — Kings +10.5 (-112)	+10.5 (-112) DraftKings	Heat 114-108 Kings	Kings 108, Heat 114 → Kings lose by 6, +10.5 (-112) covers ✅ · +0.89u

Best call: Over 226.5 in Pelicans @ Clippers (STRONG): 139 + 123 = 262. The Clippers shot a season-best 54.8% with a 59-38 bench edge while Murphy, Fears and Zion combined for 76. 6 of 7 experts on the total were on the Over.

Worst beat: Pistons -4.5 vs. Lakers (LEAN): Doncic sat as expected, but Los Angeles won the first quarter 38-14. Detroit rallied to 109-104 in the last minute before Austin Reaves (43 points) banked a one-legged shot-clock three. Lakers 121-116.

Expert scoreboard — Sunday, Nov 8

We graded 142 picks from 35 experts and models. The field went 77-65 (54.2%) against the consensus card’s 4-4 (50%).

Top of the day	Pick	Record	Units
StatsAlt – Kim Smith	Over 229.5 Pels-Clips; Under 223.5 Nets-Mavs; Heat/Mavs/Wolves/76ers ML	7-2-0	+4.37u
iHeart Model	Wolves -11.5; Kings +8.5; Clippers +1.5 and ML; Lakers +4.5 and ML	12-6-0	+3.55u
Sportsgambler – Elijah Jackson	Lakers +4.5; Celtics -12.5; Kings +8.5	3-0-0	+2.79u
Sportsgambler – Kyrone Jones	Mavericks -9.5; Over 230.5 Pels-Clips	2-0-0	+1.90u
Picks and Parlays – Kim Smith	Celtics ML; Under 224.5 Celtics-Bucks	2-0-0	+1.82u

Also perfect on the day: Doc’s Sports – Parlay’s Pundit (2-0, +1.82u on Wolves -11.5 and Under 223.5 in Jazz-Wolves), StatsAlt – David Anicetti (2-0, +1.82u) and Covers – Jon Metler (1-0, +1.55u on Lakers ML +155). Picks and Parlays – Eddie Kline went 4-2 (+1.64u) and CBS Sports went 7-5 (+1.37u). At the bottom, the Dimers Model went 2-8 (-5.90u), with Pick Dawgz – Randy Chambers (1-3, -2.12u), Action Network – Matt Moore (1-3, -2.00u) and Doc’s Sports – Tony Sink (0-2, -2.00u) behind it. The field as a whole went 77-65 (54.2%).

Season leaders (NBA, graded with us)	Record	Units	Consensus weight
Cappers Picks – Tamberlyn Richardson	30-8	+18.50u	1.36
Picks and Parlays – Kim Smith	80-50	+16.13u	1.23
HispanosNBA – Freddy Diaz	22-6	+10.82u	1.28
WagerTalk – Kyle Kargel	27-16	+7.76u	1.15
Doc's Sports – Tony Sink	28-18	+7.52u	1.13
Doc's Sports – Josh Schonwald	22-13	+7.06u	1.13
Winners and Whiners – David Anicetti	15-6	+6.54u	1.17

How this changes the card

Cappers Picks – Tamberlyn Richardson still carries the most weight in the NBA consensus at 1.36 (30-8). StatsAlt – Kim Smith rose from 1.14 to 1.19 after her 7-2 day (52-33-1), and Picks and Parlays – Kim Smith ticked up to 1.23 (80-50). Doc’s Sports – Tony Sink slipped from 1.17 to 1.13 after an 0-2 day (28-18), and Action Network – Matt Moore fell back to 1.00 (13-12). Sportsgambler – Kyrone Jones reached 15 decided picks at 9-6 and now counts at 1.05; 52 experts are rated.

Season to date

Tier	All	Spread	Moneyline	Total	Units
STRONG	68-45	28-18	13-3	27-24	+11.45u
LEAN	20-19	13-13	1-3	6-3	-1.51u
FADE-WATCH (not staked)	2-3	2-2	0-1	—	—
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	88-64				+9.94u

Every card, every sport: the full consensus record.

All seven games were final in regulation. Expert rows posted without a price are graded at -110. One decimal price (1.52) is graded at +0.52u on a win. One Sports Mole row worded as ’76ers win by 10+’ is graded as 76ers -9.5. Expert spreads and totals are graded at the number in each expert’s own pick.

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