NFL DFS Hot Sheet – Week 11
It could be a tough week to find value and build high-floor lineups this week, so pay special attention to make sure you are getting upside into your DFS lineups for Week 11, even in Cash games. It should be a wide-open week in GPPs, so don’t be afraid to go with your gut and plug in a couple of Hail Mary options.
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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com. Rankings for receivers by position (WR/TE) are based on grades from ProFootballFocus (PFF).
Week 11 Hot Sheet
- Josh Allen (BUF) – Now that the game has been moved out of the blizzard and into a dome, Allen and the Bills become the offense with the highest implied Vegas total. The Browns’ pass defense ranks 26th in DVOA.
- Justin Fields (CHI) – Fields has been the man to roster the last couple of weeks with his big rushing ability. He may be running a little above expectation in touchdown rates but gets another favorable matchup this week against the Falcons who have allowed 1.5 TD passes (22nd) per game and rank 25th in DVOA against the run.
- Dak Prescott (DAL) – Prescott will face a Vikings defense that has been good against the run, but has struggled against the pass, allowing 306 yards (32nd) and 2.0 TD passes (31st) per game over the last five weeks.
- Saquon Barkley (NYG) – After putting up 152 rushing yards and a score in a very favorable matchup against the Texans, Barkley gets another cake matchup against the Lions who rank 27th in DVOA against the run while allowing 113 rushing yards (28th) and 1.2 TDs (30th) per game to running backs.
- Dalvin Cook (MIN) – The Cowboys’ pass defense has been pretty good statistically this season, so look for the Vikings to try to establish the run against them. The Cowboys have allowed 139 rushing yards (30th) per game over the last five weeks.
- Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL) – This is a gut call. Most DFS advice columns this week will promote David Montgomery, but I’m looking at the other side with Patterson going against the generous Bears run defense. They rank 26th in DVOA against the run and have allowed 1.6 TDs (31st) per game to running backs over the last five weeks. Patterson for two scores on Sunday.
- De’Andre Swift (DET) – The injury reports on Swift have been better this week than any in recent memory. Get in on him before he blows up when he gets back to 15 touches. He faces a Giants run defense that has allowed 5.41 YPC (30th) to running backs this season.
- Brian Robinson (WAS) – Either Robinson or Antonio Gibson is going to have a good week as the next team to face the Texans’ defense that ranks last to next to last in every single metric against the run. I give my lean toward Robinson who should get more carries and have a higher expectation to score.
- Justin Jefferson (MIN) – Honestly, Jefferson is an option every week, but he is definitely worth considering even with his high price tag in a game that is expected to be close and high scoring against the Cowboys. The Cowboys have allowed 1.5 TDs (31st) per game to wide receivers over the last five weeks.
- CeeDee Lamb (DET) – Lamb has at least five catches in seven of his last eight games and is coming off a game with double-digit catches. He should be heavily involved in a potential shootout against the Vikings’ secondary that has allowed 18.3 receptions (32nd) for 245 yards (32nd) and 1.3 TDs (26th) per game to wide receivers over the last five weeks.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) – Brown has averaged double-digit targets over the last three games as he is now back to full health. He draws a favorable individual matchup against the Giants while working primarily out of the slot.
- Gabe Davis (BUF) – Sure, I’d be nice to pay up for Stefon Diggs, but Davis gives us a piece of the Bills passing game in a dome at a cheaper salary and with just as much upside. Both Bills’ wideouts should be able to exploit the Browns’ secondary.
- Cortland Sutton (DEN) – With Jerry Jeudy leaving early in the last game, Sutton got 11 targets. With Jeudy out this week, Sutton should be the primary target again against the Raiders’ secondary which has allowed 13.0. receptions (24th) for 157 yards (22nd) per game to wide receivers this season.
- Allen Robinson (LAR) – A similar addition by subtraction should occur for Robinson with Cooper Kupp out. Increased targets and red zone usage along with a beatable matchup on the outside against the Saints secondary could have Robinson lined up for his best game as a Ram.
- Garrett Wilson (NYJ) – Wilson has topped 90 yards in each of his last two games which included 115 yards against the Patriots who are this week’s opponent. Coming off a bye look for the Jets to find more ways to get the ball to Wilson.
- Dalton Schultz (DAL) – Since Prescott returned to the Cowboys lineup, Schultz has at least five catches in all three games. The Vikings have allowed 0.8 TDs (28th) per game to tight ends over the last five weeks.
- Cole Kmet (CHI) – Kmet has turned into a go-to option in the red zone for Fields with five touchdowns over the last three weeks. The Falcons have been good at keeping tight ends out of the end zone this year but are still giving up 5.9 receptions (30th) for 59 yards (27th) per game to the position.
- Greg Dulcich (DEN) – Dulcich had his first dud last week with only one catch but he still got four targets and 59 air yards. With Juedy out, a few more looks could come to Dulcich against the Raiders who have allowed 0.7 TDs (29th) per game to tight ends this season.
- Eagles (PHI)
- Jets (NYJ)
- Steelers (PIT)
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