NFL DFS Picks & Best Bets (Thanksgiving)
Nothing beats Thanksgiving Day with food, family (social distanced), and football. Unfortunately, word just broke that the Steelers/Ravens game on Thursday night has been postponed, which drops us down to a two-game slate. Make sure you are paying attention to your lineups in between games to perform some late swaps to maximize your leverage on the field and head-to-head opponents.
The Thanksgiving Edition of the Hot Sheet will be free as I write up my top Cash game plays by position and then list some of the other options that I’m considering rounding out my Cash lineup and using in GPPs. Enjoy and have a great Thanksgiving!
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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com. Rankings for receivers by position (WR/TE) are based on grades from ProFootballFocus (PFF).
Week 12 (Thanksgiving) Hot Sheet
- Deshaun Watson (HOU) – The Lions have allowed 294 passing yards (28th) and 7.98 yards per attempt (29th) over the last five weeks. Meanwhile, Watson has posted at least 260 passing yards and multiple touchdowns in seven of his last eight games, sans the weather game in Cleveland.
- Matthew Stafford (DET)
- Alex Smith (WAS)
- Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) – Elliott is a DK-only Cash game option for me since he is overpriced on FanDuel. In the three games started by Andy Dalton this season, Elliott has put up a respectable average of 15 carries for 66 yards on the ground and 3.7 receptions for 16 yards in the air with one score in those outings. He’ll get a neutral matchup at home as a small Vegas favorite against the Washington rush defense that ranks 14th DVOA.
- D’Andre Swift (DET) – Swift is not out of the woods yet for a Turkey Day return to the field, but he did get in a limited practice on Tuesday. If Swift plays against the Texans, then stuff him into your DFS lineups. The Texans have struggled to stop the run all season allowing 146 rushing yards (32nd) and 1.2 touchdowns (30th) per game to opposing running backs.
- Antonio Gibson (WAS) – Move into strong Cash consideration with the postponement of the Steelers/Ravens game
- Duke Johnson (HOU)
- Terry McLaurin (WAS) – Despite the quarterback carousel in Washington this season, McLaurin has been as consistent all year with at least seven targets in every game and has posted at least four receptions for more than 60 yards in all but one game this year. McLaurin should feast on a Cowboys secondary that has allowed 179 receiving yards (25th) and 1.9 TDs (32nd) per game to wide receivers on 14.1 yards per reception (30th). He put up seven grabs for 90 yards and a score in their first meeting.
- Will Fuller / Brandin Cooks (HOU) – With Watson as the top QB option on the slate it makes sense that a couple of his pass-catchers should also be worth considering. Fuller has consistently provided solid production almost every week with at least four catches in eight straight games. Meanwhile, Cooks has found his rhythm with Watson with at least eight targets in five of his last six games. Both wideouts should rack up the catches and yardage against the Lions pass defense which has allowed 14.7 receptions (28th) for 187 yards (28th) per game this season.
- Marvin Jones (DET) – The Lions seem likely to be without Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola again this week which leaves Jones as the primary WR target in the passing game. Over the last four games, Jones has averaged up 4.5 receptions for 57 yards and 1.0 TD per game. He faces a beatable Texans secondary that has allowed 1.4 TDs (28th) per game to the position.
- CeeDee Lamb (DAL)
- Keke Coutee (HOU)
- Cam Sims (WAS)
- Mark Andrews (BAL) – Andrews played a season-high 87% of the snaps last week with Nick Boyle out and translated it into five catches for 96 yards and a score. He should be a big part of the Ravens gameplan again this week in a key divisional matchup against the Steelers.
- TJ Hockenson (DET)
- Jordan Akins (HOU)
- Just take whichever DST fits your build
- Lions +3
- Washington +3
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