NFL Sportsbook Consensus Grading Recap — Monday, November 9, 2026

Kim Smith (Picks and Parlays) swept Monday night at 2-0, +1.82u, taking Bills -3 and Under 44.5 in Buffalo’s 23-6 win at Minnesota. That moves her to 43-36-1 (+3.18u) on the season with us. Chris Amberley (SportsBettingDime) made the same two calls, Bills -2.5 and Under 44.5, and went 2-0 for +1.75u. Chris Farley (Pickswise) also went 2-0 on Bills -3 and Under 44.5 for +1.74u.

Nineteen more experts hit with a single winner, most of them on Buffalo laying a field goal. They include Sports Chat Place’s David Racey, now 15-7 (+7.08u) and one of the best hit rates in our ledger, Bleacher Report’s Moe Moton (57-46-3, +5.93u), and Covers’ Josh Inglis, whose Under 44.5 takes him to 6-2. Across the field, experts went 25-18 on 43 graded picks.

The consensus card went 2-1 for +0.81u. STRONG 1-0 (+0.98u), LEAN 1-1 (-0.17u). The STRONG Under 43.5 and the LEAN Bills -3 both cashed. The LEAN Vikings moneyline at +150 lost, -1.00u. Every play is graded at the line we posted.

What actually happened

Buffalo controlled this game from start to finish. James Cook carried 31 times for 107 yards, and the Bills held the ball for 42:32. Josh Allen went 21 of 31 for 234 yards and threw a 25-yard touchdown to Keleki Latu with 44 seconds left in the first half. Tyler Bass added field goals, and Cook’s late touchdown closed out a 23-6 final. Buffalo won despite missing two starting offensive linemen, Dion Dawkins (ribs) and Alec Anderson (ankle).

Minnesota’s offense never got going with Carson Wentz starting for Kyler Murray, who was out with a hamstring injury. Wentz finished 8 of 25 for 81 yards with three turnovers. One was a backward pass in the first quarter that turned into a lost fumble near midfield, and Terrel Bernard and Dorian Williams each intercepted him. He completed 1 of 8 passes after halftime and left in the fourth quarter with a lower-leg issue, and Max Brosmer replaced him. The Vikings started four straight first-half drives beyond their own 40 and never got past the Buffalo 48. They finished with 178 total yards.

The Vikings moneyline wasn’t undone by a voided premise. Murray was already ruled out before the card posted, and the case for Minnesota rested on its defense, which held Buffalo to 23 points and sacked Allen four times. Buffalo beat that case on the merits: its running game and its defense took over, and the total landed at 29, well under every number posted.

The card, by tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	Units
STRONG	1-0-0	100%	+0.98u
LEAN	1-1-0	50%	-0.17u
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	2-1-0	67%	+0.81u

Every play is graded at the line we posted.

Every play

Result	Tier	Play	Line	Final	Grading
✅ WIN	STRONG	Bills @ Vikings — Under 43.5	-102 DraftKings	Bills 23-6 Vikings	23 + 6 = 29 total, under 43.5 ✅ · +0.98u
✅ WIN	LEAN	Bills @ Vikings — Bills -3	-120 DraftKings	Bills 23-6 Vikings	Bills 23, Vikings 6 → Bills by 17, covers -3 ✅ · +0.83u
❌ LOSS	LEAN	Bills @ Vikings — Vikings ML	+150 DraftKings	Bills 23-6 Vikings	Bills won 23-6 outright → Vikings ML loses ❌ · -1.00u

Best call: The STRONG Under 43.5 (6 of 8 experts), which won by 14.5 points. The pre-game case was Wentz starting for an injured Murray against Buffalo’s pressure. Wentz went 8 of 25 for 81 yards with three turnovers, Minnesota managed 178 yards, and Buffalo’s 42:32 of possession kept the clock moving.

Worst beat: The LEAN Vikings ML at +150 (2 of 2 experts on the moneyline). Minnesota’s defense largely held up and sacked Allen four times. But Wentz’s three giveaways, including a first-quarter backward pass lost near midfield, meant the offense never crossed the Buffalo 48.

Expert scoreboard — Monday, Nov 9

We graded 43 picks from 37 experts and models. The field went 25-18 (58.1%) against the consensus card’s 2-1 (67%).

Top of the day	Pick	Record	Units
Picks and Parlays – Kim Smith	Bills -3; Under 44.5	2-0-0	+1.82u
SportsBettingDime – Chris Amberley	Bills -2.5 (-127); Under 44.5 (-104)	2-0-0	+1.75u
Pickswise – Chris Farley	Bills -3 (-115); Under 44.5 (-115)	2-0-0	+1.74u

Also on the right side with Bills -3 or -3.5: Chris Vasile (Covers), Jared Dubin (CBS Sports), Cody Williams (FanSided), Jim Coventry and Ian Hartitz (RotoWire), David Racey (Sports Chat Place), Josh Schonwald (Doc’s Sports), Brent Matousek (Cappers Picks), Chris Ruffolo (Pickdawgz), Geoff Schwartz (FOX Sports), and Moton, Knox, Sobleski, Davenport, O’Donnell and Hanford (Bleacher Report). Josh Inglis (Covers) hit the Under 44.5. Andy Molitor (Bleacher Nation) and Gary Pearson (Sportsbook Review) each split 1-1. At the bottom of the day, Iain MacMillan (Sports Illustrated) went 0-2 (-2.00u) on Vikings +3.5 and the Vikings moneyline. Fourteen experts went 0-1 on Minnesota +3/+3.5, the Vikings ML or the Over, including Jordan Dajani (CBS Sports), Matt Russell (Yahoo Sports), Jeff Erickson, Scott Pianowski and Nick Whalen (RotoWire), Matt Youmans and Zachary Cohen (VSiN), Mike Spector (Sportsbook Review) and the SportsLine Model.

Season leaders (NFL, graded with us)	Record	Units	Consensus weight
Covers – Trevor Knapp	45-25	+12.68u	1.23
CBS Sports – Jordan Dajani	34-19	+11.94u	1.19
SportsBettingDime AI Model	54-38-2	+10.46u	1.14
CBS Sports – Jamey Eisenberg	49-37-3	+7.66u	1.10
Sports Chat Place – David Racey	15-7	+7.08u	1.14
Lineups – Richard Janvrin	8-1	+6.28u	1.00 (9 of 15 decided)
SportsLine Model	25-17-3	+5.94u	1.10

How this changes the card

Our rating weights moved on this result. Several rated experts who hit gain weight: David Racey (Sports Chat Place, 15-7, weight 1.14), Kim Smith (43-36-1, 1.04) and Ian Hartitz (RotoWire, 17-15, 1.01). Others lose a little: Jordan Dajani (CBS Sports) drops to 34-19 but still carries one of the top weights at 1.19, Iain MacMillan (Sports Illustrated) is now 108-90-3 (1.06), and Brad Gagnon (Bleacher Report) is 48-62-2 (0.79). Chris Ruffolo (Pickdawgz) is now 8-6-1 with 14 decided picks, one short of the 15 needed to qualify for a weight. Until then he counts at the neutral 1.00.

Season to date

Tier	All	Spread	Moneyline	Total	Units
STRONG	35-49-1	9-15	8-5	18-29-1	-18.93u
LEAN	18-25	9-18	3-2	6-5	-9.22u
FADE-WATCH (not staked)	4-3	3-3	—	1-0	—
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	53-74-1				-28.15u

Every card, every sport: the full consensus record.

Final verified against ESPN’s recap (Bills 23, Vikings 6, no overtime). In 28 expert rows, the stored line_or_odds held the spread or total number instead of a price. Those rows were graded at the standard -110.

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