NFL DFS Showdown – Week 1 (Thursday) – HOU v KC
The NFL season is ready to kickoff with the Thursday night opener between the Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs. With no preseason games, the season has snuck up on me a little bit but I’m still ready to provide NFL DFS advice this season including for some NFL Showdown single-game contests. So, let’s get ready for some football!
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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs
|Kansas City Chiefs||86||74||61||54||70||58||64||61||61||-9.5|
- Travis Kelce – Kelce is one of the premier tight ends in the league and he destroyed the Texans in the playoffs last year with 10 receptions for 134 yards and three scores. The Texans had trouble stopping tight ends in general last season allowing 57.9 yards (26th) on 4.8 receptions (21st) to the position. We need to save a few bucks in our captain spot so we can fit in a couple of expensive core plays.
- Patrick Mahomes – It is almost impossible to consider fading Mahomes, especially with the Chiefs favored by almost double-digits and with a 54.5 Vegas total. The Texans allowed 280 passing yards (29th) and 2.1 TD passes (27th) per game last season with a 26th DVOA ranking versus the pass.
- DeShaun Watson – The only way the Texans stand a chance to keep up with the Chiefs is if Watson does his thing through the air and on the ground. In his two meetings with the Chiefs last season, he had three touchdown passes and scored three times on the ground. Watson will find a way to score fantasy points one way or another.
- Darrel Williams – The Chiefs ground game should be led by rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but in his first professional game with no preseason, I still expect the #2 man, Williams to get a fair amount of work at a value price. And who is to say which back gets the ball at the goal line, it could be Williams.
I know I just said that I have some question about Edwards-Helaire, but what if he bursts onto the scene as a rookie like Kareem Hunt did for the Andy Reid-led Chiefs in 2017. In that game, Hunt had 148 rushing yards, 98 receiving yards, and scored three times. So, stick CEH in at Captain, and then fill in a bunch of the Texans passing game (Watson, Fuller, plus one more). Add in a boom-or-bust option like Mecole Hardman and fade Mahomes (gasp!).
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