NFL DFS Showdown – Week 3 (Thursday) – MIA v JAX
This week’s Thursday Night Showdown features a pair of below-average teams but it could make for an entertaining and high-scoring football game. Read on for my top DFS plays for Showdown Cash and single-entry GPPs.
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Note: DVOA referenced in this article stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which is a metric from FootballOutsiders.com.
Miami Dolphins @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- Ryan Fitzpatrick – I strongly considered Gardner Minshew for this spot, but I prefer how the backend of my Cash game lineup looks with Fitzpatrick at Captain. The Jaguars pass defense has allowed an average of 301 yards and 2.5 TD passes per game through the first two weeks and rank 31st DVOA against the pass.
- Gardner Minshew – Minshew has tossed 3 TD passes in each of the first two games and gets a home matchup against a Dolphins pass defense that has surrendered 2 TD passes per game through two weeks and allowed a league-high 2.4 TD passes per game last season.
- James Robinson – Robinson has 16 carries in each of the first two games and does get a little bit involved in the passing game. The Dolphins run defense ranks 31st DVOA and the Jaguars could get into a positive game script for Robinson on the ground as a home favorite.
- Mike Gesicki – Gesicki blew up last week for eight receptions on 11 targets for 130 yards and a score. Meanwhile, the Jaguars just get shredded by TE Jonnu Smith last week for 84 yards on four grabs with a pair of scores. Gesicki has lined up in the slot 79% of snaps this season.
My single-entry GPP strategy on Thursday revolves around Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing a pick-6, which puts the Jaguars DST into the Captain slot. With an early lead, the Jaguars focus more on the ground game with both James Robinson and Laviska Shenault. Then bring it back with Fitzpatrick and two of the Dolphins pass-catchers as they play catchup all night.
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