NHL Sportsbook Consensus Grading Recap — Thursday, November 5, 2026

iHeart Model (iHeart) was the day’s biggest winner at 20-10 for +6.36 units, cashing on the Blues +1.5, Red Wings +1.5 and Predators +1.5 as three underdogs kept it within a goal; it now sits 84-61-2 (+4.14u) with us this season. Nikos Lagouretos (Pick Dawgz) went a perfect 3-0 for +2.61u on Bruins ML and the Over in both Ducks-Oilers and Canucks-Jets, moving to 13-7 (+4.12u) on the season. Josh Schonwald (Doc’s Sports) hit two plus-money underdogs — Ducks +155 and Predators +184 — for 2-1, +2.39u.

Also perfect on the night: Doc’s Sports – Parlays Pundit 2-0 (+2.03u; Blue Jackets +112 and Under 5.5, now 10-6, +4.19u), Pickswise – Connor Grootenhuis 2-0 (+1.91u), and Sports Chat Place – Chris Ruffolo 3-0 (+1.90u), who is now 15-7 (+2.44u) with us. We logged 150 expert picks across 43 experts and the field went 78-72.

The consensus card went 5-5 for -0.84u. STRONG 3-3 (-0.50u), LEAN 2-2 (-0.34u); the FADE-WATCH on the Red Wings lost and carries no units. Every play is graded at the line we posted.

What actually happened

The STRONG Bruins moneyline was never in doubt: Pittsburgh scored first, then Boston answered with three goals in 6:50 of the first period (Zacha, Kastelic, Lindholm) and won 6-2 behind 16 saves from Michael DiPietro. Two of the STRONG Overs cashed in high-event games — Ducks 5-4 Oilers, with Pavel Mintyukov and Beckett Sennecke each scoring twice, and Canadiens 5-4 Mammoth in overtime, where Logan Cooley’s hat trick (two on the power play) and Cole Caufield’s winner 30 seconds into OT pushed the total to 9.

The other two STRONG Overs were beaten on the merits by goaltending. Golden Knights-Red Wings was scoreless through two periods before Vegas won 2-1 on rookie Trevor Connelly’s goal with 1:42 left (Carter Hart 25 saves, Daniil Tarasov 32). Predators-Avalanche finished 3-2 on Steven Stamkos’s power-play goal in overtime, with Justus Annunen making 30 saves — five goals even counting OT, short of 6.5. The STRONG Stars moneyline lost a game Dallas led late: Mikko Rantanen scored at 6:27 of the third, Zach Werenski tied it with 3:14 left, and Columbus won the shootout 2-1 behind Cam Talbot’s 27 saves.

On the LEAN plays, the Over in Canucks-Jets cashed easily as Winnipeg scored three in the first period and won 6-2, and the Rangers won 3-2 on Tye Kartye’s breakaway at 15:21 of the third after Pavel Dorofeyev’s power-play equalizer. The Devils -1.5 lost a cover the Devils had in hand: New Jersey led 4-1 after two, St. Louis scored three times in 3:08 to tie it, and Jesper Bratt won it 5-4 in overtime — one goal short of the puck line. The Under 5.5 in Hurricanes-Islanders went over with Carolina winning 5-3, the last goal an empty-netter by Jalen Chatfield with 50 seconds left at 4-3; the game was already at 7 before it.

The card, by tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	Units
STRONG	3-3-0	50%	-0.50u
LEAN	2-2-0	50%	-0.34u
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	5-5-0	50%	-0.84u
FADE-WATCH (tracked, not staked)	0-1-0	0%	+0.00u

Every play is graded at the line we posted.

Every play

Result	Tier	Play	Line	Final	Grading
✅ WIN	STRONG	Bruins @ Penguins — Bruins ML -108	ML -108 DraftKings	Bruins 6-2 Penguins	Bruins win by 4 ✅ · +0.93u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Ducks @ Oilers — Over 6.5 (-148)	6.5 (-148) DraftKings	Ducks 5-4 Oilers	5 + 4 = 9; Over 6.5 cashes ✅ · +0.68u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Predators @ Avalanche — Over 6.5 (-105)	6.5 (-105) FanDuel	Predators 3-2 Avalanche (OT)	3 + 2 = 5 incl. OT; Over 6.5 short by 2 ❌ · -1.00u
✅ WIN	STRONG	Mammoth @ Canadiens — Over 6.5 (-112)	6.5 (-112) DraftKings	Canadiens 5-4 Mammoth (OT)	4 + 5 = 9 incl. OT; Over 6.5 cashes (8 in regulation already over) ✅ · +0.89u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Golden Knights @ Red Wings — Over 5.5 (-130)	5.5 (-130) DraftKings	Golden Knights 2-1 Red Wings	2 + 1 = 3; Over 5.5 short by 3 ❌ · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	STRONG	Stars @ Blue Jackets — Stars ML -130	ML -130 DraftKings	Blue Jackets 2-1 Stars (SO)	1-1 after OT; Blue Jackets win shootout → graded 2-1 Columbus ❌ · -1.00u
❌ LOSS	LEAN	Blues @ Devils — Devils -1.5 (+130)	-1.5 (+130) DraftKings	Devils 5-4 Blues (OT)	Devils by 1 in OT; 5 – 1.5 = 3.5 < 4; does not cover -1.5 ❌ · -1.00u
✅ WIN	LEAN	Canucks @ Jets — Over 6.5 (-102)	6.5 (-102) DraftKings	Jets 6-2 Canucks	2 + 6 = 8; Over 6.5 cashes ✅ · +0.98u
❌ LOSS	LEAN	Hurricanes @ Islanders — Under 5.5 (+114)	5.5 (+114) DraftKings	Hurricanes 5-3 Islanders	5 + 3 = 8; Under 5.5 loses ❌ · -1.00u
✅ WIN	LEAN	Flyers @ Rangers — Rangers ML -148	ML -148 DraftKings	Rangers 3-2 Flyers	Rangers win by 1 in regulation ✅ · +0.68u
❌ LOSS	FADE-WATCH	Golden Knights @ Red Wings — Red Wings ML +120	ML +120 DraftKings	Golden Knights 2-1 Red Wings	Red Wings lose 2-1 ❌ (FADE-WATCH carries 0 units) · +0.00u

Best call: Bruins ML -108 (STRONG, 8 of 9 experts): Boston erased an early deficit with three first-period goals in 6:50 and won 6-2 — the cleanest win on the card.

Worst beat: Devils -1.5 (+130, LEAN): New Jersey led 4-1 after two periods, St. Louis scored three in 3:08 to tie it, and Jesper Bratt’s overtime winner gave the Devils a one-goal win that missed the puck line.

Expert scoreboard — Thursday, Nov 5

We graded 150 picks from 43 experts and models. The field went 78-72 (52%) against the consensus card’s 5-5 (50%).

Top of the day	Pick	Record	Units
iHeart – iHeart Model	Blues +1.5; Red Wings +1.5; Bruins ML -108 and 27 more	20-10-0	+6.36u
Pick Dawgz – Nikos Lagouretos	Bruins ML -108; Over 6.5 Ducks-Oilers -142; Over 6.5 Canucks-Jets -102	3-0-0	+2.61u
Doc's Sports – Josh Schonwald	Ducks ML +155; Predators ML +184	2-1-0	+2.39u
Doc's Sports – Parlays Pundit	Blue Jackets ML +112; Under 5.5	2-0-0	+2.03u
Pickswise – Connor Grootenhuis	Over 6.5 Canucks-Jets +100; Under 6.5 Blackhawks-Lightning -110	2-0-0	+1.91u
Sports Chat Place – Chris Ruffolo	Over 6.5 Ducks-Oilers; Hurricanes ML -166; Lightning -1.5 -166	3-0-0	+1.90u

Also on the right side: Last Word on Sports – Rohit Bhamra hit Over 7 in Bruins-Penguins at +152 (1-0, +1.52u); Pick Dawgz – Randy Chambers went 3-2 (+1.07u) with Predators +180; Winners and Whiners – David Anicetti went 4-2 (+1.03u); Capper’s Picks – Aaron Mayberry (Canadiens +103) and DraftKings Network – Hunter Skoczylas (Over 6.5 Mammoth-Canadiens) were each 1-0. At the bottom of the day: Dimers Model 1-7 (-6.09u), Ultimate Capper – Jay Cooper 0-5 (-5.00u), and Doc’s Sports – Guy Bruhn and Pick Dawgz – Chris Ruffolo each 0-3 (-3.00u).

Season leaders (NHL, graded with us)	Record	Units	Consensus weight
CBS Sports	65-35-2	+14.86u	1.29
Sportsgambler – Robert Carter	13-4	+7.54u	1.18
RotoWire – Daniel Dobish	7-1	+5.16u	1.00 (8 of 15 decided)
Doc's Sports – Parlays Pundit	10-6	+4.19u	1.07
iHeart Model	84-61-2	+4.14u	1.15
Pick Dawgz – Nikos Lagouretos	13-7	+4.12u	1.11
Ultimate Capper – Jay Cooper	36-37	+3.52u	0.94

How this changes the card

24 experts now have the 15 decided picks needed to carry weight. CBS Sports (65-35-2, weight 1.29) and Sportsgambler – Robert Carter (13-4, 1.18) remain the heaviest, with iHeart Model (84-61-2) at 1.15 and Sports Chat Place – Chris Ruffolo (15-7) at 1.14 after another perfect night. Pick Dawgz – Nikos Lagouretos is up to 13-7 (1.11) and Doc’s Sports – Parlays Pundit to 10-6 (1.07). Below 1.00, Sports Chat Place – Randy Chambers (10-16, 0.86), Dimers Model (28-34, 0.87) and ScoresAndStats – Tyler Williams (24-30, 0.87) count for less in the next consensus.

Season to date

Tier	All	Puck line	Moneyline	Total	Units
STRONG	36-29	8-3	18-14	10-12	-0.21u
LEAN	16-19	2-2	7-8	7-9	-4.45u
FADE-WATCH (not staked)	0-3	0-1	0-2	—	—
Card (STRONG + LEAN)	52-48				-4.66u

Every card, every sport: the full consensus record.

All 11 games final. Three went to overtime (Predators-Avalanche, Mammoth-Canadiens, Blues-Devils) and one to a shootout (Stars-Blue Jackets, 1-1, graded 2-1 Columbus); overtime and the shootout count for every market. 18 expert rows with no American odds stored were graded at -110. No pushes and no NO ACTION.

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