XFL DFS – 2020 Team Previews

XFL DFS – 2020 Team Previews

We are going to provide content here at DailyOverlay for the new XFL including a weekly DFS write up by yours truly (@Rotopilot) and a Weighted Consensus Rankings matrix pulling as many picks from DFS experts around the industry as we can find.

Gathering information on the players in the new league is a tedious process and I by no means have done extensive research since we will learn more about these teams after the first week of the season than anyone can conceivably know before it starts. However, I wanted to at least get an initial baseline of expectations for what each team’s philosophy might be on offense and a guess as to what the talent level is on each roster on both offense (including the offensive line) and defense.

To accomplish this, I took a look at each coaching staff to try to determine what their offensive tendencies could be based on their past experience. Then I took a look at every player on every roster to tabulate their NFL “experience” which includes both their playing time (years/games/starts) and their NFL Draft capital using an NFL Draft Trade Value Chart (here). As I said, it is by no means an exact science, but it will give me a starting point when analyzing Week 1 and early season performances.

So, with that “This is the XFL” (2020 style) with positional and team rankings along with a few notes on my expectations for each team.

Dallas Renegades

Coach: Bob Stoops

Offense	QB	RB	WR	OL	Overall
DAL	2	2	7	1	1
Defense	DL	LB	DB		Overall
DAL	7	4	5		5

I expect the Renegades offensive style with coach Bob Stoops and offensive coordinator Hal Mumme to take on a balanced approach, at least by XFL standards, with a mix of run and pass. The offensive talent leads me to believe their strength will line in the running game with the top offensive line ranking and a high ranking at RB score (Cameron Artis-Payne and Lance Dunbar). The passing game should be solid and help move the chains with strong QB play (Landry Jones, when he gets healthy), but with the limited experience at WR, it could cap the upside of the passing game unless someone emerges.

The defensive side of the ball could struggle to stop the run with a poor ranking on the defensive line and mid-level ranking at linebacker. Opposing passing attacks should also find some success against a league average secondary.

Overall, the Renegades should be one of the better teams in the league carried by a strong offense that will be a tough one to figure out from week-to-week in DFS as the path to success could largely be dictated by the game flow if they get out to a lead or not.

DC Defenders

Coach: Pep Hamilton

Offense	QB	RB	WR	OL	Overall
DC	6	5	2	6	6
Defense	DL	LB	DB		Overall
DC	5	1	1		1

Coach Pep Hamilton has been a coordinator and coach on the offensive side of the ball his whole career primarily working with the passing game, so look for the Defenders to bring a pass-first offensive system with them this season. The offensive skill lines up pretty well for a passing offense in particular with a strong core of WRs with NFL experience and draft capital (Eli Rogers, Rashad Ross, Malachi Dupre). While the RBs don’t have NFL experience, one of them (Jhurell Pressley) led the AAF in rushing before the league ended.

The XFL better watch out for the Defenders defense which is stacked with players with NFL experience and draft capital at all levels and rank as the top defense overall and at linebacker and in the secondary. It might be worth considering avoiding opposing team’s offensive players against them early in the season until we get more data points.

Overall, the Defenders should be a team to reckon with especially on the defensive side of the ball. Their offense should be a pass-first system, but they do have a capable running game to lean on if the scoreboard dictates them to run a little clock.

Houston Roughnecks

Coach: June Jones

Offense	QB	RB	WR	OL	Overall
HOU	4	2	3	2	2
Defense	DL	LB	DB		Overall
HOU	2	2	2		2

With June Jones running the team in Houston, the Roughnecks should be the most pass-happy team in the XFL. The offense should be potent with some NFL experience and draft capital at QB (Connor Cook), although it might be P.J. Walker starting. They also grade out well at WR (Sammie Coates) and offensive line which should help give the QB time to find receivers. The running game should also be solid when they give them the ball with a thunder (Andre Williams) and lightening (De’Angelo Henderson) thing going.

The defensive unit looks like it could be very solid across the board. They have a 2nd place grade at every position and overall with a couple of players with NFL experience and draft capital at all three levels.

The Roughnecks should be able to light up the scoreboard primarily through the air which bodes well for whoever is the starting QB. The only potential hindrance to the offense could be if they start blowing teams out with a defense that could limit the opposing offenses. The Roughnecks are my top longshot to win the XFL Championship (+1200).

Los Angeles Wildcats

Coach: Winston Moss

Offense	QB	RB	WR	OL	Overall
LA	1	4	5	7	4
Defense	DL	LB	DB		Overall
LA	3	7	7		6

The Wildcats head coach, Moss, has a defensive history as a linebacker and defensive coach in the NFL. Winston will likely bring a defensive mindset of toughness to the team and will rely on his QB (Josh Johnson) to just make plays on offense as he has the most NFL experience and draft capital in the XFL. There is not much experience around the QB as both the running back position and wide receivers which could result in spread out production on offense. The potentially weak offensive line could also cause the running game to struggle and Johnson to use his legs scrambling which is bad for the offensive overall but good for Johnson’s DFS value.

Even though Winston has a defensive resume, using the NFL experience metrics I’m pulling, his defense doesn’t appear to be too impressive with a below-average linebacker and secondary crew. The defensive line might be the lone bright spot to help stop the run.

I get the sense that the Wildcats could be involved in some shootouts with a below-average defense which could be great news for Josh Johnson who could be forced to make plays with his arm and his legs to keep the Wildcats in games.

New York Guardians

Coach: Kevin Gilbride

Offense	QB	RB	WR	OL	Overall
NY	3	8	8	8	8
Defense	DL	LB	DB		Overall
NY	8	6	8		8

The Guardians should have a creative and pass-focused offensive system with Kevin Gilbride calling the shots. The question will be if they have enough offensive experience and talent to pull it off. They at least have a QB (Matt McGloin) who has some NFL experience to guide the offense but will need a collection of RBs and WRs who have almost no NFL experience or draft capital to step up. They do have a WR (Mekale McKay) that was a solid producer in the AAF to lead the WRs which is a start.

The defense for the Guardians is as void of NFL experience and draft capital as the offense is, which makes this a tough team to get a read on before the season begins.

Based on my metrics, the Guardians could be one of the worst teams in the XFL, but Vegas seems to disagree as they are one of the favorites. It is a team that I will likely not try to pass to much judgment on when making DFS decisions until we get a game or two under our belt.

Seattle Dragons

Coach: Jim Zorn

Offense	QB	RB	WR	OL	Overall
SEA	5	7	5	5	7
Defense	DL	LB	DB		Overall
SEA	1	4	6		4

The Dragons coach, Jim Zorn, is yet another offensive-minded coach in the XFL while deploying a West Coast style offense in the NFL. Look for a fairly balanced attack on offense with a mix of running and passing for an offense without too much NFL experience. They have an AAF QB (Brandon Silvers) and RB (Kenneth Farrow) who figure to be a big part of their offense. There is very little experience at WR so we’ll have to take a wait-and-see approach with who the top pass-catchers will be.

The Dragons’ defense is anchored by the top defensive line that includes three players with NFL experience. They also look to have a decent linebacker corp which combined with the D-Line could present a problem for opposing running games and will need to apply pressure to the QB to make up for a potentially weak secondary.

There isn’t much that stands out on this team at first glance. There could be some interesting pieces to work within DFS on offense such as Farrow at RB, but we might need to see which WRs emerge before using anyone from their passing game. Overall, I’d expect the Dragons to be in the bottom half of the league.

St. Louis BattleHawks

Coach: Jonathan Hayes

Offense	QB	RB	WR	OL	Overall
STL	6	1	4	3	3
Defense	DL	LB	DB		Overall
STL	4	3	2		3

The BattleHawks coach, Hayes, is the least recognizable head coach in the XFL serving as a Tight End coach in the NFL. So, instead of looking at his track record of offensive tendencies, let’s look to where the talent and experience on the roster lead us. The running game which ranks as the top unit at the position in the league features a pair of RBs (Christian Michael, Matt Jones) who have NFL experience and draft capital. Couple that with an offensive line that ranks in the Top 3 and the BattleHawks identity could be their running game. Another brick to tip the scales to the running game is the lack of experience at QB (Jordan Ta’Amu) and WR. Although there is some potential at WR including De’Mornay Pierson-El who did well in the AAF and Keith Mumphery who had some NFL experience.

There is a lot of NFL experience in the BattleHawks secondary, which is only outdone by the Defenders secondary, so passing against the BattleHawks might be a “battle” for opposing QBs. The run defense should be decent with a solid group of players on the defensive line and at linebacker.

The BattleHawks could be most run-heavy and defensive-oriented in the league which should push our early season look in DFS to the running game. With a well-rounded team overall, I think the BattleHawks could be an under-the-radar sleeper to make the XFL playoffs.

Tampa Bay Vipers

Coach: Marc Trestman

Offense	QB	RB	WR	OL	Overall
TB	8	5	1	4	4
Defense	DL	LB	DB		Overall
TB	6	8	4		7

The Vipers have another offensive-minded head coach with Trestman who has coach many successful passing offenses. The Vipers have a very strong group of WRs that have either NFL experience and draft capital (Antonio Callaway (IR), Tanner McEvoy, Donteea Dye) or had some AAF success (Reece Horn). The question will be if QB (Aaron Murray) who has limited experience and struggled in the AAF can lead the offense. The offensive line rates in the middle of the pack and while the running game doesn’t have much experience, one back (D’Veon Smith) did perform well in the AAF. That said, the Vipers will still likely focus on the passing game with Trestman calling the shots.

On the defensive side of the ball, it could be a struggle for the Vipers to slow down their opponents, especially on the ground where their defensive line ranks low and the linebackers rank last in my NFL experience metric. They do, however, have a few defensive backs with experience and draft capital which could make them a defense that funnels action to the running game.

The Vipers are another one of those teams that don’t look great on paper by my metrics but has fairly high expectation in Vegas. The offense should be innovative, and they could end up in some shootouts if their defense struggles as I suspect.

My Power Rankings

So, here are my initial power rankings based on the NFL experience and draft capital metric used in this analysis. They are quite a bit different than the implied power rankings from the Vegas odds to win the XFL title. We will know soooooo much more after we get a week of actual action to analyze, but for now, this will be my read on the league heading into Week 1.

• Houston Roughnecks
• Dallas Renegades
• DC Defenders
• St. Louis BattleHawks
• Los Angeles Wildcats
• Tampa Bay Vipers
• Seattle Dragons
• New York Guardians