It’s great to have European Tour golf back this week in South Africa! We have a pretty solid field, with Ryder Cup players Rory McIlroy and Andy Sullivan headlining the field. We can also play up our South African angle, as the local players tend to have an advantage here. Keep an eye on names like Brandon Stone, Thomas Aiken, and Hennie Otto. However, I wouldn’t go too overboard if you’re playing DFS contests this week. First, we have a ton of South African players that we know little about. Secondly, most of the players have had a four to six week layoff, and who knows how sharp (or rusty) their games might be.
We have plenty of course history to draw upon, but be careful, because this event has changed venues a few times. Players will be at Glendower Golf Club, which has hosted this event seven times, including 2014-16. Those are the years I’m going to focus most heavily upon. Glendower checks in as a 7,564 yard par-72, which may seem long, but remember that these courses in South Africa are well above sea level, making them play much shorter than the stated yardage. This is a parkland-style layout, meaning we’ll see lush, tree-lined fairways and heavy bunkering. Typically, these are the venues that favor strategic, accuracy-first players. Old man golf, if you will. One other note: besides the local angle with South Africans, you tend to see English players play well on tree-lined, parkland style courses. I’m looking at a couple names in particular, which I’ll mention below.
Key Stats:
- Driving Accuracy
- Greens in Regulation
- Birdie or Better %
- Scrambling
Let’s take a look at my favorite European Tour players this week:
The Favourites:
Rory McIlroy ($13,500) – If you can afford him, play him. There’s a reason he’s close to even money to win this event, as he’s the class of this field by a long shot. Coming off a FedEx Cup victory and a great Ryder Cup, Rory should be geared up for 2017. I think he wins more majors, and completes the Grand Slam at The Masters. The only hesitation about Rory this week is that he’s experimenting with new Callaway irons and woods.
Brandon Stone ($10,200) – Stone is one of the top up-and-coming South African players that people need to start paying attention to. He won this event a year ago, which burst him onto the European Tour scene. Additionally, he won last month’s Alfred Dunhill Championship at Leopard Creek, further cementing his dominance in his home country.
Thomas Aiken ($9,600) – Aiken is a veteran South African who knows how to navigate courses like this. He’s a surgeon, and has led the Tour in GIR% multiple times. He finished 5th here a year ago, but has boasted a record of 5th-17th-3rd-3rd-14th in his last five national opens. In his last start, the aforementioned Alfred Dunhill Championship, Aiken finished 4th, another plus for him heading into this week.
David Horsey ($8,500) – Horsey, along with Spaniard Alejandro Canizares, are two of the first names that come to mind when talking about tricky, strategic courses. The Englishman has a great record on these tracks which we saw down the stretch of last season. In his last six events, Horsey finished 13th-44th-2nd-22nd-12th-11th. Although he MC in his only appearance at Glendower, I still like Horsey as a contender this week. He has a solid record in South Africa: three top-10s and a 14th in the past two seasons.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,100) – We have our first South African that nobody has ever heard of! Bezuidenhout finished 2nd here a year ago, when he had a great chance to win down the stretch on Sunday. Additionally, he’s won at this venue before, albeit on the Sunshine Tour. His local knowledge should help here, and his recent form is good as well. Over the past six starts, Bezuidenhout has a win and a runner-up finish on the Sunshine Tour.
Thomas Detry ($7,600) – The young Belgian is still a raw talent, and I’m going to be bullish on him all year long. Although he’s a bomber who might not fit the mold this week, his birdie-making abilities should carry him. In the Alfred Dunhill Championship last month, Detry finished in 3rd, which should bode well for his return to South Africa. I expect Detry to win on Tour this year, and be a fringe Ryder Cup player for 2018.
James Morrison ($7,600) – Morrison burned us many times last year, but he’s a talented golfer who is always underpriced. He’s a young Englishman who typically performs well on these tree-lined courses, and has had success at Glendower before. In two starts here, Morrison has posted 22nd and 15th place finishes. Although his form dropped off in the second half of last season, I expect a bounce-back from Jimbo this year.
Chris Hanson ($7,800) – Old reliable. I probably rostered and touted Chris Hanson more than anyone, and he didn’t disappoint. Although he never got that 1st victory, Hanson contended many times last year, and had a handful of top-10 finishes. He’s always underpriced, and is very likely to make the cut (he made 16/22 cuts last season on Tour). I love him on shorter, tighter golf courses, and I think he can improve upon his 59th place finish a year ago at Glendower.
Justin Walters ($7,700) – Walters is always one of my favorite punt plays, and I’m not going to miss an opportunity to play him in his home country. Although he can hit the ball a mile, Walters is actually a GIR% specialist. He has a spotty record at Glendower, but did post a 4th place finish at this event a year ago. Take a look at how he performed in last year’s South African events: 4th here, 3rd at the Joburg Open, and 4th at the Tshwane Open.
Lee Slattery ($7,400) – Like David Horsey, James Morrison, and Chris Hanson (who I’ll mention next), Slattery fits the mold of English golfers who perform well on tight courses. Slattery is one of the most frustrating, inconsistent players on Tour, but he has the talent. In his past two starts here, he finished 27th (after an opening round 75), and 3rd. That’s a course record I can get behind.
Notables:
Richard Bland
George Coetzee
Dylan Frittelli
Hennie Otto
Nino Bertasio
Good luck this week!
Ryan
