Hey look, it’s another limited field, no cut event! The Hero World Challenge will feature 18 of the best golfers in the world teeing it up in the Bahamas. The tournament will be played at the Albany Course; a 7,400-yard par 72 designed by Ernie Els. It’s the first time the event will be played at this track, so we’ll have to get a little creative identifying statistics to target. Here’s what I did…
I started with Fantasy Golf Metric’s Survival Guide (if you aren’t following @fgmetrics on Twitter, you’re missing out). They identified a number of courses that should correlate well with Albany (7,300-7,500 par 72 courses with bermuda greens) and outlined each golfer’s respective performance given those conditions. Then, I focused on golfers with success on these courses and singled out the statistical areas in which they excel. That led me to this profile:
- Stroke Differential
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
- Driving Distance
- Birdie or Better %
- Par 5 Birdie or Better %
- Birdie or Better from 50-125 Yards
- Birdie or Better from 200+ Yards
I’m going to be heavily targeting the guys who are long off the tee and can fill it up. With only 18 golfers in the field and no cut, you’re going to want to get as many par breakers into your lineup as possible as A) they’re locked into 72 opportunities to make birdie and B) the point bonuses for order of finish have been marginalized by the shortened field.
RANKS! RANKS! RANKS! RANKS! RANKS! RANKS! RANKS! RANKS! RANKS! RANKS!
With only 18 golfers to choose from, I’m just going to rank the entire field. Use your best judgment to create winning lineups. Keep in mind that we’re dealing with significantly less possible lineups. You’ll need to pay special attention to differentiating yourself this week. I’ll put out the Expert Consensus tomorrow afternoon, and you’ll be able to use that to identify popular picks and places you can pivot.
Note: I’m using 2014-15 stats, as a lot of these guys don’t have enough starts in 2015-16. Also, the ranks will be out of 17, as Anirban Lahiri didn’t have enough rounds in 2014-15 to qualify for PGA Tour rankings.
#1) Dustin Johnson $10,000 (5.5-1)
Like I said earlier, I want bombers and birdie makers, so I’m rolling with DJ this week. In addition to having the best statistical profile, he’s also been playing the best golf. According to Fantasy Golf Metrics, Johnson has averaged 91.4 DK points per over his last six starts (#1 in the field).
- Stroke Differential: 3rd
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 5th
- Driving Distance: 1st
- Birdie or Better %: 4th
- Par 5 Birdie or Better %: 3rd
- Birdie or Better from 50-125 Yards: 2nd
- Birdie or Better from 200+ Yards: 1st
#2) Justin Rose $9,800 (7-1)
Rose is a DFS favorite of mine. He’s consistent and comes to play in the big events. Top-4 marks in key areas (stroke differential, strokes gained: tee-to-green, and birdie or better %) point towards a big week.
- Stroke Differential: 4th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 3rd
- Driving Distance: 6th
- Birdie or Better %: 3rd
- Par 5 Birdie or Better %: 2nd
- Birdie or Better from 50-125 Yards: 7th
- Birdie or Better from 200+ Yards: 2nd
#3) Bubba Watson $9,400 (10-1)
I’ll start by saying I think play from 50-125 yards will be important this week, and Bubba below average in that respect. However, he’s top-2 in five of the seven categories I’m focusing on, and 4th in another. He’s also been playing well; posting 82.3 DK points per over his last six events. I like his chances.
- Stroke Differential: 2nd
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 1st
- Driving Distance: 2nd
- Birdie or Better %: 2nd
- Par 5 Birdie or Better %: 1st
- Birdie or Better from 50-125 Yards: 10th
- Birdie or Better from 200+ Yards: 4th
#4) Hideki Matsuyama $8,900 (12-1)
This is a tee-to-green week, so fire up Hideki. I didn’t notice much correlation between strokes gained: putting and success on the correlation courses, so no worries there. Matsuyama is one of the best ball strikers on Tour, and he could be in line for a bounce back week.
- Stroke Differential: 5th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 4th
- Driving Distance: 11th
- Birdie or Better %: 5th
- Par 5 Birdie or Better %: 12th
- Birdie or Better from 50-125 Yards: 3th
- Birdie or Better from 200+ Yards: 7th
#5) Rickie Fowler $9,100 (10-1)
Fowler is middle of the pack in a number of key areas, but we all know he’s an elite talent. I think a lot of people will spend up for Spieth, DJ, and/or Rose, and that might price them out of Rickie. He could go a little under-owned.
- Stroke Differential: 9th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 10th
- Driving Distance: 9th
- Birdie or Better %: 9th
- Par 5 Birdie or Better %: 6th
- Birdie or Better from 50-125 Yards: 4th
- Birdie or Better from 200+ Yards: 8th
#6) Jordan Spieth $11,200 (3-1)
At #6 in my power rankings, I will be fading Spieth. He was in contention in Australia last week, but he’s actually been in a little bit of a slump (well, at least by Spieth’s standards). He’s averaged only 74.7 DK points per start in six tries over the last three months; which would place him 10th of 17 in terms of form. But… he’s still Jordan Spieth, and I can’t in good conscience place him lower than this.
- Stroke Differential: 1st
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 2nd
- Driving Distance: 13th
- Birdie or Better %: 1st
- Par 5 Birdie or Better %: 14th
- Birdie or Better from 50-125 Yards: 12th
- Birdie or Better from 200+ Yards: 3rd
#7) J.B. Holmes $7,300 (27-1)
Holmes has averaged the 8th most DK points per start in the field on the correlation courses, so a price tag of $7,300 represents a nice value. I like that he’s an all-or-nothing type. If he can get it rolling, watch out.
- Stroke Differential: 14th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 8th
- Driving Distance: 4th
- Birdie or Better %: 6th
- Par 5 Birdie or Better %: 8th
- Birdie or Better from 50-125 Yards: 11th
- Birdie or Better from 200+ Yards: 6th
#8) Jimmy Walker $6,800 (40-1)
I like Walker for mostly the same reasons that I like Holmes. He’s been pretty good on the correlation courses, and his price is great. When it comes to Jimmy, usually the earlier in the season, the better he plays. It doesn’t get much earlier than December golf.
- Stroke Differential: 12th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 16th
- Driving Distance: 7th
- Birdie or Better %: 8th
- Par 5 Birdie or Better %: 4th
- Birdie or Better from 50-125 Yards: 6th
- Birdie or Better from 200+ Yards: 5th
#9) Paul Casey $8,100 (19-1)
Casey’s been playing well (78.6 per in his last eight), and he’s pretty good (if unspectacular) in a number of key areas. I’d like him more if he was a little cheaper, but he’s a fine play.
- Stroke Differential: 10th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 6th
- Driving Distance: 8th
- Birdie or Better %: 13th
- Par 5 Birdie or Better %: 9th
- Birdie or Better from 50-125 Yards: 8th
- Birdie or Better from 200+ Yards: 14th
#10) Adam Scott $8,300 (13-1)
At this point, rostering Adam Scott is like cranking a jack in the box. You never know when the clown is going to pop out and punch you square in the face. He’s had mixed results in a limited sample with the standard putter this season, but luckily for him, SGP shouldn’t be terribly important this week. He’s long off the tee and great from in close (putting notwithstanding). He has tournament-winning upside, and he comes in at a reasonable price. You could definitely do worse.
- Stroke Differential: 13th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 13th
- Driving Distance: 3rd
- Birdie or Better %: 15th
- Par 5 Birdie or Better %: 7th
- Birdie or Better from 50-125 Yards: 1st
- Birdie or Better from 200+ Yards: 17th
#11) Patrick Reed $8,800 (11-1)
Reed has been playing incredibly well on the international circuit this season (T-10 @ CIMB, T-7 @ HSBC, 2nd @ BMW Masters, T-10 @ DP World TC). Given his form, he should be fairly popular… so I’m going to fade. His numbers on correlation courses aren’t terribly impressive, and he’s not all that cheap. I’m taking a stand here.
- Stroke Differential: 11th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 14th
- Driving Distance: 12th
- Birdie or Better %: 10th
- Par 5 Birdie or Better %: 11th
- Birdie or Better from 50-125 Yards: 14th
- Birdie or Better from 200+ Yards: 13th
#12) Brooks Koepka $7,500 (23-1)
I can’t even. You shouldn’t either until he shows us something again. I can’t believe I’m passing on Koepka at $7,500 in the year 2015, but he’s been so bad lately. Ugh… maybe? No. Just no. But possibly.
- Stroke Differential: 7th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 12th
- Driving Distance: 5th
- Birdie or Better %: 7th
- Par 5 Birdie or Better %: 5th
- Birdie or Better from 50-125 Yards: 17th
- Birdie or Better from 200+ Yards: 10th
*** At this point, I’m going to depart from the individual snippets. The remaining golfers all fit the same profile: they’re short-hitting, middling tee-to-green players. So I will be taking a collective pass on golfers #13-18. Stick to the top-12. ***
#13) Zach Johnson $7,800 (19-1)
- Stroke Differential: 6th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 7th
- Driving Distance: 17th
- Birdie or Better %: 12th
- Par 5 Birdie or Better %: 13th
- Birdie or Better from 50-125 Yards: 5th
- Birdie or Better from 200+ Yards: 15th
#14) Matt Kuchar $7,600 (21-1)
- Stroke Differential: 8th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 9th
- Driving Distance: 15th
- Birdie or Better %: 11th
- Par 5 Birdie or Better %: 10th
- Birdie or Better from 50-125 Yards: 15th
- Birdie or Better from 200+ Yards: 9th
#15) Billy Horschel $6,900 (55-1)
- Stroke Differential: 17th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 17th
- Driving Distance: 10th
- Birdie or Better %: 14th
- Par 5 Birdie or Better %: 15th
- Birdie or Better from 50-125 Yards: 16th
- Birdie or Better from 200+ Yards: 11th
#16) Anirban Lahiri $7,100 (45-1)
- No stats
#17) Chris Kirk $6,700 (50-1)
- Stroke Differential: 16th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 15th
- Driving Distance: 16th
- Birdie or Better %: 16th
- Par 5 Birdie or Better %: 16th
- Birdie or Better from 50-125 Yards: 9th
- Birdie or Better from 200+ Yards: 12th
#18) Bill Haas $7,200 (45-1)
- Stroke Differential: 15th
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 11th
- Driving Distance: 14th
- Birdie or Better %: 17th
- Par 5 Birdie or Better %: 17th
- Birdie or Better from 50-125 Yards: 13th
- Birdie or Better from 200+ Yards: 16th
Good luck this week!
oreo
Programming Note: Keeping in line with what we’ve done in the past, there won’t be any expert grading this week. The field is incredibly small, and there will be too much variance. The Expert Consensus will still drop tomorrow, though. See you then.
