For this week’s European Tour preview, we’re at the Dubai Desert Classic. Although Rory is out with injury, we have a stacked field including an appearance by Tiger Woods. Woods MC last week at Torrey Pines, but he’s still shaking off the competitive rust. I love that he feels healthy enough to travel across the world and play back-to-back weeks, so hopefully his game comes around soon. Beyond Tiger, this field is headlined by Henrik Stenson, Danny Willett, Sergio Garcia, and Rafa Cabrera-Bello.
This week’s venue is The Majlis course at Emirates Golf Club, Dubai, UAE. This course has been the longtime host of the event, so we have plenty of course history to draw upon. It’s a par-72, but is broken up into two distinctly different nines: the front is a par-35, and very difficult, while the back is a par-37, and features most of the par-5s on the course. Water is in play on many holes. Looking back at trends and course history, we see an edge for the bombers off the tee. I’m taking a hard look at last week’s leaderboard, because there’s been correlation between success in Qatar and then in Dubai. Also, we have a desert-style course like Doha Golf Club, where the holes are exposed and wind becomes a major factor. There isn’t much rough to speak of, so driving accuracy takes a backseat to driving distance, and the emphasis will be placed on approach shots. Because it gets windy in Dubai, I’m going to take a long look at links players who have had success here.
Course history is important because this track has been used many times over the years, but I will also look for players who perform above average in the wind. Two of my favorite resources for this data are Future of Fantasy (futureoffantasy.com) and 15th Club (15thclub.com).
Key Stats:
1) Driving Distance
2) Birdie or Better %
3) Tournament History
4) Wind Specialist
Let’s look at my favorite plays this week:
The Favourites:
Henrik Stenson ($12,300) – Stenson has only missed one cut in Dubai in his career. He’s a past winner at this venue, and has posted five other top-10 finishes along the way. He’s the man to beat in this field, and easy to afford with soft pricing this week. He shook off the rust with an 8th place finish a couple of weeks ago.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello ($10,800) – Rafa keeps contending, but can’t seem to break through for that win. It’s coming soon, and the desert is the perfect place. He’s a previous winner of this event, and finished 2nd last season. In his last two starts, RCB has posted 19th and 6th place finishes, respectively. Keep riding the hot hand.
Jeung-Hun Wang ($9,300) – I tipped Wang last week, so hopefully some of you got him into your lineups. One thing to note: he went back-to-back last season. I think he’s talented enough to repeat once again, and has now shown a propensity for desert-style golf. The Korean has ascended to 39th in the world rankings, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him inside the top-25 soon.
Tyrrell Hatton ($8,800) – The Mad Hatter got a nice price decrease this week, making me very interested. He looked to be in control a couple of weeks ago before faltering to a 13th place finish in Abu Dhabi. He’s a great wind player, and has shown his skills in the desert as well. I expect Hatton to have another tremendous year, and play himself onto the 2018 Ryder Cup team.
Thomas Aiken ($8,500) – The South African veteran is on the best run of his career, posting 4th, 13th, 5th, and 4th place finishes in his last four starts. He’s shown a knack for desert golf, and has continued his great play despite the windy conditions. I’m a bit worried that this track is too long for him, but he’s had solid finishes in the past. He has one MC and two top-10s in his career at the Dubai Desert Classic.
Chris Wood ($8,200) – Finally healthy, and finally rounding into form. I absolutely love Chris Wood this week, as he’s a bomber who is excellent in windy conditions. He’s made six consecutive cuts at this event with a couple of top-10s thrown in. He finished 11th last week in Qatar, which is a great sign for his chances this week.
Thomas Pieters ($8,100) – The young Belgian bomber burned us last time he played, but I’m going back to the well at this low price. Pieters is a bomber and a birdie-maker, which is exactly what we are targeting this week. He hits a low, boring ball flight off the tee, making him the perfect player to battle the winds in Dubai. He MC here a year ago, but has found much better form since.
Joost Luiten ($7,800) – Luiten just keeps plodding along, finishing 29th and 21st to start his 2017 season. He’s more of a cash game play for me, as he’s very likely to make the cut but unlikely to win in this stacked field. He had a very poor track record here until his 8th place finish a year ago, so maybe he found something on the course that makes it a more comfortable fit.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat ($7,500) – Barnrat is one of the streakiest players on Tour, so we’re going to strike while the iron (and putter) is hot. He’s finished 10th, 4th, and 9th in his first three starts of the season, two of which were in Abu Dhabi and Qatar. The desert seems to suit him well, and he’s significantly underpriced this week.
Joakim Lagergren ($6,800) – Lagergren almost got that first win last week, losing in a playoff to Jeung-Hun Wang. He’s going to win, and he’s going to win soon. The Swede is a great ball-striker and scrambler, but possesses enough pop off the tee to contend here. For our purposes, I love Lagergren because he makes birdies in bunches.
Peter Uihlein ($6,700) – Back from injury, Uihlein has flashed some signs that his game is returning this year. He’s finished 14th, 7th, and 49th to start his 2017 campaign, and has been making plenty of birdies. He has a 13th place finish on his record here in Dubai, which is a promising sign heading into the week.
Chris Hanson ($6,300) – Old reliable is once again significantly underpriced this week. He’s finished 26th, 23rd, and 18th the past three weeks, and is basically a free square for cash games and GPPs. The Englishman is very comfortable playing in windy conditions, and has shown his ability to play well on any course. He’s going to breakthrough a win an event this season, it’s just a matter of time.
Good luck this week!
Ryan
