Last week’s Nordea Masters was close to being a great one, as I picked Matt Fitzpatrick to win. He came up a shot short, tying for 2nd place with fellow Englishman Chris Wood. Renato Paratore, a young Italian, won his first career event which was great to see. Most of our picks played well, although Stenson’s finish left something to be desired. Let’s move to Austria for this week’s Lyoness Open.
This event is not nearly as attractive as the past few we’ve seen on the European Tour, and the strength of field suffers dramatically. It’s going to be a stars and scrubs week for sure, because a handful of players are in a different class than the rest of the field. This week, the venue is Diamond Country Club, about an hour outside of Vienna, Austria. The course is challenging in all aspects of players’ golf games: it features four par 5s (two reachable, two most likely not reachable), four par 3s (including the finishing hole), a couple of island greens, and tons of water hazards throughout the course. Although some bombers have had strong finishes here, accuracy is definitely at a premium. Because of this, we don’t see many of the bombers playing this week. Additionally, the top players in the world are in the States, prepping for the U.S. Open. Our field is headlined by Bernd Wiesberger, the home country favorite, Gregory Bourdy, James Morrison, and Joost Luiten.
I’m going to lean very heavily on course history this week, as this tricky type of course attracts the same names year-in and year-out. Additionally, there are a handful of elite players in this field relative to the rest, so I want to get as many of them in my lineup as possible. European Tour stats are notoriously unreliable, but from the digging I’ve done, here are the key stats of the week:
- Driving Accuracy
- Stroke Average
- Greens in Regulation
- Scrambling
And now on to the picks! After a solid week of picks last week, let’s try to keep things rolling. Balancing course history, current form, and the above mentioned key stats, here are the plays I love in a stars and scrubs week:
The Favourites:
Bernd Wiesberger ($12,100) – Wiesberger is by far the class of this field, and comes to a venue he’s won at previously. He also won in China several weeks ago, so recent form checks out as well. He’ll try to get one more solid week under his belt before jetting to the U.S. for the Open at Erin Hills. Wiesberger recently finished 12th at the Players and 30th at the BMW PGA Championship. He’s posted three other top-10s in addition to his win at Diamond CC.
Gregory Bourdy ($9,800) – Bourdy has finally begun to find the form that we saw from him last year, where he was one of the most consistent players on Tour. He also contended at the U.S. Open, which was really cool to see. Bourdy has made four of his past five cuts on Tour, including a top-10, and comes to a venue where he’s finished inside the top-8 in three consecutive tries.
James Morrison ($9,600) – Although his form has cooled a little, Jimbo is still trending towards a win this season. He had strung together eight straight made cuts before missing at Wentworth, but that’s one we can overlook due to the tough conditions and tough competition. During that great run, Morrison posted 4th, 6th, 12th, and 13th place finishes, so we know the upside is there. The Englishman should be very comfortable on this narrow design.
David Horsey ($9,300) – Anytime we get to these accuracy courses, Horsey pops on my radar. The English veteran is a short hitter but knows how to keep himself out of trouble. He’s made three straight cuts here including a top-10, and has posted two top-10s on Tour in his past four events. Horsey is a notoriously hot starter, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him near the lead after Thursday’s opening round.
Jaco van Zyl ($8,500) –van Zyl is an iron specialist who has quietly been in solid form. I usually target him in South Africa only, but he’s carried his form to continental Europe. He’s made four of his past five cuts, with no finishes outside the top-35. He’s never played here before, but I think another top-25 is in the cards.
Max Orrin ($7,200) – The young Englishman is one of my sleeper picks to win this week. In his past seven starts, he’s finished 23rd, 16th, 27th, 15th, 18th, DQ, and 15th. In the event he was DQ’d, he opened with a 69. Orrin is a shorter, more accurate hitter who should thrive here. He’s full of confidence and has been near the top of the Tour in birdie rate recently.
Eddie Pepperell ($7,200) – Another English player (this seems to be a theme). It’s no surprise, because these Brits grew up playing narrow, tree-lined courses, and typically have an accurate game with deadly irons. Luke Donald, Justin Rose, Paul Casey, Matt Fitzpatrick… that sort of player has been commonplace in England. Pepperell fell off the cliff last year and lost all his confidence, but seems to have stormed back in recent weeks. He finished 38th and 8th in his past two events, and won’t put pressure on himself. He’s one of the most open, honest, and down-to-earth players on Tour.
Austin Connelly ($7,100) – The young Canadian phenom recently turned professional, and has posted two of his best starts recently. Connelly was 31st at the Rocco Forte, and then finished 8th last week at the Nordea Masters. He’s still finding his footing as a professional, but he’s a gaining confidence weekly. He’s a great GPP flier this week with more popular names around him.
Sebastian Soderberg ($6,900) – Soderberg disappointed a bit last week in front of the home crowds, but continued his made cut streak with a 41st place finish. He graduated from the Challenge Tour last year, and has popped up near the top-10 several times this season. The Swede is a prolific birdie-maker, which is friendly to our fantasy golf formats. More of a cash than GPP play for me this week.
Tom Lewis ($6,600) – Very similar profile to Eddie Pepperell, but maybe slightly more consistency. Lewis is another young Englishman who was highly touted as an amateur, struggled, and now has found his game. He’s made five straight cuts on Tour, including 18th and 11th place finishes in his past three starts. Lewis has played this event three times, finishing 26th, 30th, and 10th. At this price, he’d be a cash game lock for me.
Good luck this week!
