NFL – Industry Expert Consensus – Week 10

We are officially past the halfway point of the NFL season. Hopefully that means you have everything figured out with your DFS lineups…yea right!! Four teams on bye this week and an eleven game Sunday afternoon schedule. The Consensus list seems to be getting shorter and shorter by the week. This week offers up some nice value play opportunities if you’re looking to cram a couple high-priced guys in there.

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As a reminder, the number in the parenthesis is the number of experts that chose that player so you have more context regarding the gaps between players and the tiers.

Quarterbacks

Highly Touted

• Jay Cutler (9x) – 13% Cash / 11% GPP – Can be had for a cheap price. Potential big upside value play against the Bucs who allow the 4th most DFS points to QBs.
• Tom Brady (8x) – 11% / 10% – He’s coming off another monster game. Brady has posted 30+ DFS points in three of the four games that he’s played in this season.

Recommended

• Aaron Rodgers (5x) – 4% / 6% – Continued his solid play last week in a loss to Indy. Has 10 TD passes and one pick in the last three games.
• Cam Newton (5x) – 4% / 6% – Found the endzone through the air once last week. The Carolina offense has looked a big sluggish lately.
• Marcus Mariota (5x) – 4% / 6% – His two INTs put a damper on an otherwise stellar afternoon last week. Mariota could be a great value play at $5,700 on DK.
• Carson Palmer (5x) – 4% / 6% – Coming off a bye week and playing the 49ers. Could mean a big week for a guy that had his best game his last time out.
• Carson Wentz (5x) – 4% / 6% – The Eagles have opened up the playbook a bit allowing Wentz to throw downfield. The Falcons allow the most DFS points to opposing QBs.

Suggested

• Dak Prescott (4x) – 3% / 5% – Dak on the road in Pittsburgh in November. That sounds like fun. He threw three TD passes last week and seems to be as strong as ever.
• Ben Roethlisberger (4x) – 3% / 5% – Ben looked rusty last week in his first game back from injury. He should have the rust shaken off and should be good to deploy.

Running Backs

Highly Touted

• David Johnson (14x) – 64% / 38% – The Niners allow the most DFS points to RBs meaning Johnson could have a monster day. He is, as usual, the highest priced RB on the board.
• Darren Sproles (12x) – 47% / 28% – Was given the distinction as the “lead back” for Philly this week. Facing a Falcons defense that hasn’t stopped opposing RBs in the DFS format. A good value play.
• Le’Veon Bell (8x) – 19% / 15% – The Cowboys are giving up the 2nd fewest points to RBs in the DFS format. Bell has not topped the 100 yard mark since week 4.
• Jay Ajayi (7x) – 14% / 12% – Jay has run for 529 yards and 4 touchdowns in the last three games. The Chargers allow the 3rd most DFS points to RBs.
• Melvin Gordon (7x) – 14% / 12% – After Stephen told you on our podcast last week that he refused to play Gordon, he went off! In the last two games, Gordon has 307 yards on the ground and 8 catches for 109 yards.

Recommended

• No Players

Suggested

• Ezekiel Elliot (4x) – 5% / 7% – Back-to-back games of under 100 yards rushing after topping the mark in four straight. He faces a Steelers defense that has been vulnerable in the DFS format against RBs.
• Peyton Barber (4x) – 5% / 7% – It remains to be seen if Doug Martin will play or not. Keep an eye on that situation because if Martin plays, Barber loses all his value.
• Jordan Howard (3x) – 4% / 6% – Howard had a big week last time out. He rushed for 153 yards and had 49 receiving.
• Mark Ingram (3x) – 4% / 6% – Ingram bounced back from his fumbling issues in a big way likely regaining his status as the lead back. He’ll face the Broncos who have been vulnerable against the run.
• Devonta Freeman (3x) – 4% / 6% – Freeman has only topped the 100-yard mark once this year.
• Chris Ivory (3x) – 4% / 6% – Had a big game but a costly fumble last week. A nice value play at $3,400 on DK.
• Jonathan Stewart (3x) – 4% / 6% – Should continue to see a large number of carries, as usual. Had back-to-back big weeks before a downer last Sunday.

Wide Receivers

Highly Touted

• Alshon Jeffery (12x) – 41% / 23% – Tampa has allowed the 5th most DFS points to WRs. Jeffery found the endzone last week for the first time this season.
• Antonio Brown (9x) – 21% / 14% – A safe play every week. Has received double-digit targets in all but two games so far.
• JJ Nelson (8x) – 17% / 13% – A nice value play at $4,200 on DK. Caught eight balls for 79 yards and two TDs last week.
• Jordan Matthews (7x) – 16% / 12% – Atlanta allows the 2nd most DFS points to WRs. Matthews has received 15 and 10 targets in the last two weeks.

Recommended

• Mike Evans (6x) – 12% / 11% – The Bears secondary allows the most DFS points to WRs. Evans has received double-digit targets in all but one game and has scored 5 TDs in the last four weeks.
• Julio Jones (5x) – 9% / 10% – Jones is the highest priced WR on DK. He has scored 28+ DK points in three of the last four games.
• Tyrell Williams (5x) – 9% / 10% – Williams got back in the endzone last week. He has become Rivers’ favorite target at the wideout spot.
• Stefon Diggs (5x) – 9% / 10% – Diggs caught 13 of the 14 balls thrown his way last week. He and Bradford have formed a nice connection
• Rishard Matthews (5x) – 9% / 10% – Matthews scored twice last week and that followed his one touchdown the previous week. Matthews is still a nice value play at $4,200.
• Dontrelle Inman (5x) – 9% / 10% – Inman has received 22 targets in the last three games. He’s priced at $3,400 on DK so a solid boom or bust value opportunity.
• Kenny Britt (5x) – 9% / 10% – Britt is on the list once again this week. Has scored three TDs in the last three games.

Suggested

• Emmanuel Sanders (4x) – 6% / 8% – Sanders has not scored at TD since week 4. Has received double-digit targets in each of the last two weeks.
• Demaryius Thomas (4x) – 6% / 8% – Thomas has four straight weeks of double-digit targets.
• Jordy Nelson (3x) – 5% / 7% – Nelson has scored in each of the last two games.
• Doug Baldwin (3x) – 5% / 7% – Baldwin has not found the endzone since week 3. Could be a game in which the Seahawks are playing from behind so maybe some additional opportunities.

Tight Ends

Highly Touted

• Zach Miller (9x) 13% / 12% – Miller has double-digit DFS points in four of the last six games.
• Lance Kendricks (8x) – 12% / 11% – A value play at $3,000 on DK. He has seven catches in each of the last two games and has scored double-digit DFS points in three straight.

Recommended

• Zach Ertz (5x) – 6% / 7% – Ertz had 8 catches for 97 yards last week.
• Antonio Gates (5x) – 6% / 7% – Gates has found the endzone in each of the last two games.
• Rob Gronkowski (5x) – 6% / 7% – Gronk has scored in three straight. Averaging 23.83 DK points in the last four games.
• Travis Kelce (5x) – 6% / 7% – Carolina allows the 4th most DFS points to TEs. Having Alex Smith back should benefit Kelce as he is Smith’s favorite target.

Suggested

• Jimmy Graham (4x) – 5% / 6% – Graham had a monster week last week with 8 catches for 103 yards and two TDs.
• Delanie Walker (4x) – 5% / 6% – I could play Delanie every week and be just fine with it. Had 5 catches for 42 yards and a TD last Sunday.

Defense/Special Teams

Highly Touted

• No Teams

Recommended

• Arizona Cardinals (5x) – 11% / 9% – The Cards face off against Colin Kaepernick who had a great week last Sunday.
• New York Jets (5x) – 11% / 9% – A nice value play against the Rams and Keenum. The Jets are not a very good defense but the Rams offense may be even worse.
• Los Angeles Rams (5x) – 11% / 9% – The Jets offense is the gift that keeps on giving if you play the opposing defense.

Suggested

• Philadelphia Eagles (4x) – 6% / 6% – Playing the Eagles against the Falcons seems really risky. The Eagles do have average the 2nd most DK poins for a defense though.
• Jacksonville Jaguars (3x) – 4% / 4% – You’re really scraping the bottom of the barrel here. The only thing I can say in defense of this pick is that Brock Osweiler has been horrid on the road.
• San Diego Chargers (3x) – 4% / 4% – The Chargers face off against the Jay Ajayi show on Sunday. Middle of the road pricing could make this play a decent value. Coming off a game in which they gave up a lot of points but did score two defensive touchdowns.

Hope that you find the right combination to cash! Follow me on Twitter @mbutlerok.