NFL – Industry Expert Consensus – Week 13

Can you believe we are already in week 13?!? I know that I sure can’t. I hope that this article along with our NFL Expert Standings has helped you this NFL season. Stephen talked about laundry and sock basketball in his NFL Value Index this week while Brad cut right to the chase in his NFL Offensive Tendencies article. I mention both of those guys because they work hard to churn out expert picks every week and if you aren’t checking them out on a weekly basis then you need to be doing that.

The list lengthened a bit this week. Along with our usual guys, there are several options to find value on the list this week. Best of luck!

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As a reminder, the number in the parenthesis is the number of experts that chose that player so you have more context regarding the gaps between players and the tiers.

Quarterbacks

Highly Touted

• Drew Brees (10x) – 16% Cash / 12% GPP – Brees is the highest priced QB on the board coming off a 5 TD game in which he eclipsed the 300-yard mark. The Lions allow the 5th most DFS points to QBs.

Recommended

• Russell Wilson (6x) – 6% / 7% – Wilson was held in check last week against the Bucs. Potential bounceback game against a Panthers defense that hasn’t been great this season.
• Matthew Stafford (6x) – 6% / 7% – The Saints defense is improving but this game could turn into a shootout. I’m a bit wary of Stafford as he has not topped 20 DK points in any of the last five games.
• Aaron Rodgers (5x) – 5% / 6% – We’ve heard a bit about a bad hammy for Rodgers this week. It wouldn’t stop me from playing him though. He’s had 26+ DK points in 6 consecutive games.

Suggested

• Matt Barkley (4x) – 3% / 5% – This is the ultimate value play. If you’re ballsy enough to play him, Barkley could make you rich. Had a nice game in his first start last week and this game could potentially see a lot of points.
• Tyrod Taylor (4x) – 3% / 5% – Tyrod has scored with his legs in four of the last five games. A nice value option at $5,700 on DK.
• Colin Kaepernick (4x) – 3% / 5% – Kaep looks like he did a few years ago. Maybe by kneeling during the anthem he’s saving energy for the game. Threw for 296 yards and three TDs last week and added another 113 yards on the ground.
• Ben Roethlisberger (4x) – 3% / 5% – Ben faces a Giants defense that allows the 3rd fewest DFS points to QBs. He threw three TD passes last week.

Running Backs

Highly Touted

• Jordan Howard (11x) – 44% / 26% – The Niners allow the most DFS points to RBs. Howard’s price has bumped way up to $6,900 on DK this week.
• David Johnson (8x) – 20% / 16% – Johnson has 33.1, 38 and 27.1 DK points in the last three games. He’s found the endzone via a receiving TD in three straight.
• Le’Veon Bell (8x) – 20% / 16% – Bell is averaging 32.9 DK points per game over the last three. He’s getting around 18-25 carries per game and 7-10 targets as well.
• Jeremy Hill (8x) – 20% / 16% – He’s a value play though I’m not very high on him. Had 21 yards on 12 carries last week.
• Theo Riddick (8x) – 20% / 16% – The Saints defense allows the 6th most DFS points to RBs. Riddick does the majority of his damage catching passes out of the backfield.

Recommended

• No Players

Suggested

• LeSean McCoy (4x) – 5% / 7% – Shady topped the 100-yard mark last week for the first time since week 6.
• Dion Lewis (4x) – 5% / 7% – His value is in catching balls. Caught in the three-headed NE backfield.
• Devontae Booker (4x) – 5% / 7% – Booker’s price has finally subsided to where it belongs. He has 24 carries in back-to-back games. He’s getting touches but not doing much with them.
• Carlos Hyde (4x) – 5% / 7% – The Bears allow the 3rd fewest DFS points to RBs. Hyde scored via a receiving TD last week.
• Latavius Murray (3x) – 3% / 6% – Becoming more of a pass catcher these last couple weeks. Has not had much success on the ground in those games.
• Melvin Gordon (3x) – 3% / 6% – The man that scored touchdowns like crazy early on has not found paydirt since week 9.

Wide Receivers

Highly Touted

• Julio Jones (8x) – 19% / 15% – The Chiefs defense has allowed the most DFS points to WRs. That’s good news for a Falcons offense that loves to sling it around.
• Tyreek Hill (8x) – 19% / 15% – If Maclin is out again, Hill is almost a must-start. He scored three times last week in three different ways – rushing, receiving and return game.
• Marvin Jones, Jr. (7x) – 17% / 14% – After a red-hot start, he’s fallen off the face of the earth. Did receive double-digit targets last week for the first time since week 2.

Recommended

• Michael Thomas (6x) – 14% / 13% – Thomas is leading the Saints in all receiving categories and is now priced higher than Brandin Cooks on DK.
• Brandin Cooks (6x) – 14% / 13% – Had caught at least 3 balls in every game of his career until last week when he didn’t even receive a target. He should bounceback in a big way this week and could go underowned due to last week and the emergence of Michael Thomas.
• Antonio Brown (5x) – 10% / 10% – He made the most of his five catches last week as he found paydirt three times.
• Dorial Green-Beckham (5x) – 10% / 10% – A nice value play at minimum pricing on DK. Has 11 catches and 18 targets in the last two weeks.
• Marquess Wilson (5x) – 10% / 10% – Another nice value play. The Niners allow the 4th most DFS points to WRs and Wilson caught 8 balls for 125 yards and a touchdown last week.
• Mike Evans (5x) – 10% / 10% – Evans has double-digit targets in all but two games this year. He caught two TD passes last week.

Suggested

• Doug Baldwin (4x) – 7% / 8% – He is Russell Wilson’s top target. Gets a nice matchup against the Panthers.
• Willie Snead (4x) – 7% / 8% – Snead is a nice value play. Could go underowned as the forgotten option in the Saints offense that should score a lot of points at home this week.
• DeAndre Hopkins (4x) – 7% / 8% – If you think you can trust Osweiler on the road, go ahead and play Hopkins. I will not be doing so.
• Malcolm Mitchell (3x) – 5% / 7% – Mitchell has emerged the last two weeks. The rookie has three TD catches in those two games.

Tight Ends

Highly Touted

• Travis Kelce (10x) – 16% / 14% – The Falcons have been vulnerable against the TE position and Kelce is Smith’s top target. If Maclin is out, Kelce will be a great play.
• Vance McDonald (7x) – 13% / 11% – If you’re looking for a salary saving TE option, McDonald fits that bill. He’s alternated games with a TD catch over the last four weeks which means he’s due to get one on Sunday.
• Jimmy Graham (7x) – 13% / 11% – With Gronk and Jordan Reed out, Graham becomes the highest priced TE on the board. Graham has killed the Panthers in his career.

Recommended

• Eric Ebron (6x) – 9% / 10% – Ebron only received one target on Turkey Day. He’s a risk-reward play that I’ll likely stay away from.

Suggested

• CJ Fiedorowicz (3x) – 4% / 5% – He has become a safety net for Osweiler. Has not caught less than three balls since week 3.
• Tyler Eifert (3x) – 4% / 5% – With AJ Green out, Eifert should continue to see increased targets. The Eagles allow the 2nd fewest DFS points to TEs.

Defense/Special Teams

Highly Touted

• Denver Broncos (7x) – 14% / 11% – The Broncos are going to need a strong defensive performance to win this weekend without their starting QB. Bortles is always good for a turnover or two….or three…or four.

Recommended

• New England Patriots (5x) – 11% / 9% – Jared Goff looked solid last week…against the Saints. The Pats at home should eat him alive.
• Baltimore Ravens (5x) – 11% / 9% – The Ravens are probably my favorite DST play of the week. The Dolphins have been rolling though so I could be completely off base here.

Suggested

• Miami Dolphins (3x) – 4% / 4% – The Fins were cut up by Kaepernick last week.
• Green Bay Packers (3x) – 4% / 4% – I like any defense that is facing Brock Osweiler away from Houston.

Hope that you find the right combination to cash! Follow me on Twitter @mbutlerok.