Back to a short list this week. We have several divisional matchups this week and those tend to produce fewer points…especially the 2nd time around. This also creates an interesting study in where the ownership numbers will land. If you trust our ownership percentage estimates, we could see lineups all over the board in Week 14. As always, make sure you’re checking our NFL Expert Standings to make sure that expert you trust is actually worth a flip. If you don’t have an expert that you trust, then you might look towards Stephen’s weekly NFL Value Index article as he has positioned himself in the top-3 of our standings for most of the season. Best of luck
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As a reminder, the number in the parenthesis is the number of experts that chose that player so you have more context regarding the gaps between players and the tiers.
Quarterbacks
Highly Touted
- Eli Manning (7x) – 9% Cash / 9% GPP – Manning’s price continues to fall on DK as it sits at $5,500 this week. He has not topped 20 points on DK since week 10. He does face a banged up Dallas defense so this could be a breakout.
Recommended
- Russell Wilson (6x) – 6% / 7% – Seattle is throwing the ball a lot this season. Wilson has 30+ pass attempts in all but two games this year.
- Aaron Rodgers (5x) – 4% / 6% – Rodgers faces the Seahawks but it is in Green Bay. He has 7 TD passes and no picks in the last three weeks.
- Andy Dalton (5x) – 4% / 6% – The thought of playing the Red Rocket makes my stomach turn; however, if you’re going to do it, this is the week. The Browns are awful and Dalton could throw a couple TDs.
Suggested
- Colin Kaepernick (4x) – 3% / 5% – Kaep got benched last week in the snow in Chicago. In a battle between two bad teams, he could bounce back and be underowned this week.
- Andrew Luck (4x) – 3% / 5% – The Texans held Aaron Rodgers in check last week. Luck is good at home though and is coming off a 4 TD game
- Jameis Winston (3x) – 2% / 4% – Winston gets a vulnerable Saints defense at home. A possible underowned value play here in what could be a shootout.
- Tyrod Taylor (3x) – 2% / 4% – I’m not a fan of Taylor, especially against an improving Steelers defense. Has thrown for under 200 yards in four of the last five games.
Running Backs
Highly Touted
- Le’Veon Bell (7x) – 15% / 13% – His floor is so high every week. You’re pretty much guaranteed a minimum of 25 DK points.
- DeMarco Murray (7x) – 15% / 13% – The Titans seem to be limiting Murray’s touches a bit. Even with that said, he provides a ton of value catching balls out of the backfield.
Recommended
- David Johnson (6x) – 9% / 10% – He has averaged 36.6 DK points in the last three games. Has caught a TD pass in four straight and rushed for one in three of the last four.
- Jeremy Hill (6x) – 9% / 10% – Hill lit up the Browns earlier this season in the only game where he topped 100 yards.
- Rob Kelley (5x) – 6% / 9% – Fat Rob has thrown out two duds in a row. He is always the possible beneficiary of a good Skins offense that affords him goalline touches.
- Lamar Miller (5x) – 6% / 9% – Miller has single digit DK points in four of his last six games.
Suggested
- Theo Riddick (3x) – 3% / 6% – He gets basically nothing on the ground but is good for 5-10 receptions weekly.
- Todd Gurley (3x) – 3% / 6% – Gurley remains extremely cheap and faces the Falcons who allow the 2nd most DFS points to opposing RBs.
- Rex Burkhead (3x) – 3% / 6% – If you want to dig this far for value, then have at it. Burkhead stole some touches from Hill last week but won’t be in my lineup.
- Devonta Freeman (3x) – 3% / 6% – Freeman has only rushed for 100 yards once this season; however, he does have 9 TDs.
Wide Receivers
Highly Touted
- No Players
Recommended
- Doug Baldwin (5x) – 10% / 11% – With the Seahawks throwing more, Baldwin is the biggest benefactor. He has caught 7 balls in each of the last two games.
- Pierre Garcon (5x) – 10% / 11% – Garcon is a great value at $4,200 on DK. If he could find the endzone more, he’d be an even better one.
- Robby Anderson (5x) – 10% / 11% – Anderson is minimum priced and received 12 targets last week. I don’t think people are lining up to own Jets receivers though.
- Mike Evans (5x) – 10% / 11% – Evans is the highest priced WR on the board. He had his first single digit DK score of the season last week.
Suggested
- Odell Beckham, Jr. (4x) – 7% / 8% – The Cowboys allow the 4th most DFS points to opposing WRs. Beckham had 16 targets and 10 catches last week.
- Jordan Matthews (4x) – 7% / 8% – Matthews caught all four balls thrown his way last week. He had received double digit targets in the previous four games to last week.
- Tyrell Williams (3x) – 5% / 7% – The Panthers allow the 3rd most DFS points to WRs. Williams has a TD catch in each of the last four games.
- Antonio Brown (3x) – 5% / 7% – Brown has four TD catches in the last two games. Keep an eye on the weather in Buffalo as there is a chance of snow.
- Ted Ginn, Jr. (3x) – 5% / 7% – GInn has a TD catch in each of the last three games and 195 total receiving yards in those two.
- Tyler Boyd (3x) – 5% / 7% – Boyd has 50+ receiving yards in all three games since AJ Green went down.
- Sterling Shepard (3x) – 5% / 7% – Shepard has a TD catch in four of the last five games. The Cowboys struggle defending WRs out of the slot.
- Sammy Watkins (3x) – 5% / 7% – This is just a gut call if you play him. There is little evidence to support playing him unless you point to the 9 targets he had last week.
- Golden Tate (3x) – 5% / 7% – Tate caught 8 balls for 145 yards and a TD last week.
- TY Hilton (3x) – 5% / 7% – TY caught 9 balls for 146 yards last week. He and Luck have fantastic chemistry but the Texans allow the 4th fewest DFS points to WRs.
Tight Ends
Highly Touted
- No Players
Recommended
- Tyler Eifert (6x) – 9% / 10% – Eifert is the highest priced TE on the board. He has caught at TD pass in each of the last two games though he only caught two total passes last week.
- Jason Witten (6x) – 9% / 10% – His 130 games with a reception ended last Thursday. In week 1 against the Giants, Witten caught 9 balls on 14 targets.
- Cameron Brate (5x) – 6% / 7% – Brate caught 6 passes for 86 yards and a TD last week.
- Jimmy Graham (5x) – 6% / 7% – The Pack are vulnerable to opposing TEs. Graham has caught a TD in two of the last three games.
Suggested
- Zach Ertz (4x) – 5% / 6% – Ertz has double digit targets and a TD catch in two of the last three games.
- Ladarius Green (4x) – 5% / 6% – Green broke out last week with 6 catches, 110 yards and a TD.
- Vance McDonald (3x) – 4% / 5% – He’s boom or bust. Caught 2 balls for 9 yards last week.
- Delanie Walker (3x) – 4% / 5% – Walker has a TD catch in three of the last four games.
- Antonio Gates (3x) – 4% / 5% – The Panthers allow the 5th most DFS points to opposing TEs.
Defense/Special Teams
Highly Touted
- Minnesota Vikings (9x) – 20% / 14% – The Vikes get turnover machine Blake Bortles in a must win game. They will be highly, highly owned.
Recommended
- Cincinnati Bengals (5x) – 11% / 9% – It’s your weekly “this team is playing the Browns” defense. With RG3 starting this week, it may be the best time yet to target the Browns.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5x) – 11% / 9% – I know the Saints are much better at home but I still have a hard time playing the Bucs this week.
Suggested
- Miami Dolphins (4x) – 7% / 7% – Joe Flacco destroyed the Dolphins through the air last week. Carson Palmer has not had a great year but could easily do the same thing.
- Buffalo Bills (3x) – 4% / 4% – Another defense that I’d have trouble playing. Anytime you have an offense with Ben, Bell and Brown it’s hard to feel confident starting a defense against them.
Hope that you find the right combination to cash! Follow me on Twitter @mbutlerok.
