NFL – Industry Expert Consensus – Week 9

A week with six teams on bye creates a short list for the Consensus. No London game this week so at least we have 11 games to choose from on Sunday’s slate. If you have not checked out our NFL Expert Standings please do so. We are at the halfway point and we are beginning to see some considerable separation between the top-2 guys and the rest of the field. One of those guys is our very own, Stephen Monahan. Check out Stephen’s NFL Value Index for Week 9 as he looks to bounce back from a self-described “dumpster fire” last week.

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As a reminder, the number in the parenthesis is the number of experts that chose that player so you have more context regarding the gaps between players and the tiers.

Quarterbacks

Highly Touted

• Aaron Rodgers (11x) – 21% Cash / 12% GPP – Rodgers has gotten back on track the last two weeks after everyone was doubting him. Seven TD passes in the last two outings and facing an Indy defense that gives up a lot of DFS points to QBs.
• Dak Prescott (7x) – 6% / 10% – Dak looked a bit like a rookie last week. He’ll get a chance to bounce back against the Browns on Sunday. The Browns are giving up the 5th most DFS points to opposing QBs.

Recommended

• Colin Kaepernick (6x) – 5% / 7% – Kaep faces an New Orleans defense that isn’t very good. Of course, Kaep isn’t very good either. You could take a flyer on him in a GPP format.
• Andrew Luck (6x) – 5% / 7% – In a game where Indy could be down early, Luck should be throwing the ball quite a bit. If he can stay upright, he should put up solid numbers.
• Cam Newton (5x) – 4% / 6% – Newton didn’t score a TD last week for the first time since 2014. He’s been up and down this season and the Rams have done a decent job in the DFS format against QBs.

Suggested

• Drew Brees (4x) – 3% / 5% – Brees has looked good this season including last week against the Seahawks. Expect him to find the endzone at least a couple times against the Niners on Sunday.
• Sam Bradford (4x) – 3% / 5% – Maybe a decent value play. Only costs $5K and the Lions have given up the 2nd most DFS points to QBs this year. Will be interesting to see if anything changes now that Norv Turner has resigned.
• Philip Rivers (4x) – 3% / 5% – He’s coming off a 3 INT game against the Broncos last week. Being the gunslinger that he is, that will not have any effect on him moving forward. I expect him to bounce back in a big way on Sunday. Of course, I love him every week though!
• Marcus Mariota (3x) – 2% / 4% – Mariota has been really, really good the last month. In his last four games, he has 10 TD passes and only one pick. He falls in that 2nd tier of pricing at QB in week 9.

Running Backs

Highly Touted

• Ezekiel Elliott (13x) – 57% / 28% – Zeke should gut the Browns defense. They give up the 5th most DFS points to opposing RBs. If he gets 25-30 carries, I’d expect him to get 150+ yards and a couple TDs.
• Charcandrick West (10x) – 23% / 17% – With Spencer Ware expected to be sidelined, West might be the play of the week. Coming in at only $4,400 on DK, he’s a solid value play.
• Le’Veon Bell (7x) – 16% / 13% – He has not topped the 100-yard mark in the last three games. However, he caught ten balls the last time out and that is a huge boost to a DFS score regardless of the yardage on said catches.
• Devontae Booker (7x) – 16% / 13% – He’s the bellcow in the Donkey’s offense now. Has yet to top 100 yards in his rookie campaign.

Recommended

• Melvin Gordon (5x) – 6% / 8% – All he does is score touchdowns. He ran for 111 yards last week against Denver which was the first time he’s done that since week 2; however, he has 10 touchdowns on the season.
• Carlos Hyde (5x) – 6% / 8% – The Saints give up the 2nd most DFS points to RBs. Hyde should have a big game barring a blowout where Kaep might be throwing the ball a lot.

Suggested

• Jay Ajayi (4x) – 5% / 7% – He became the 4th person in NFL history to record back-to-back 200 yard games with his 214 yard performance last week. The Jets run defense is good but Ajayi is on a roll!
• Terrance West (4x) – 5% / 7% – Pittsburgh has the worst DFS run defense. West had a bad week last week but could be primed for a breakout game.
• Theo Riddick (4x) – 5% / 7% – His pass catching ability is almost unmatched at the RB position. Has caught three TD passes in the last two games.
• Darren Sproles (4x) – 5% / 7% – Sproles received the bulk of the carries for the Eagles last week due to Ryan Mathews’ fumbling issues. That role should continue this week.
• Mark Ingram (3x) – 4% / 5% – It appears that the next person on our list, Tim Hightower, will begin pilfering a lot of carries from Ingram.
• Tim Hightower (3x) – 4% / 5% – Everyone is all over Hightower this week coming off his 26 carry, 102 yard performance against the Seahawks last week.

Wide Receivers

Highly Touted

• Michael Thomas (11x) – 38% / 20% – Thomas is becoming a very reliable threat at the WR position. His price has yet to catch up to his production.
• Davante Adams (10x) – 29% / 16% – Has double-digit receptions two straight weeks. With Rodgers back on track, the value of the GB receivers has skyrocketed.
• Donte Moncrief (9x) – 20% / 14% – Came back from injury last week. Caught 4 balls for 41 yards and a TD.
• Antonio Brown (7x) – 14% / 12% – If Big Ben is back, Brown’s value goes up significantly. Without Ben in week 7, Brown still caught 7 balls for 106 yards.

Recommended

• Tyrell Williams (6x) – 10% / 11% – Coming off a one catch week. By far, his worst performance of the season.
• Ty Montgomery (5x) – 9% / 10% – Providing solid value running and catching the ball. Like Adams above, Montgomery has double-digit catches in back-to-back games.
• Stefon Diggs (5x) – 9% / 10% – Diggs had a nice game against the Bears last week. He caught 8 balls for 76 yards and a TD.
• Odell Beckham, Jr. (5x) – 9% / 10% – Still a bit hobbled by a bad hip. The Eagles are pretty stingy against WR in the DFS format.
• Kenny Britt (5x) – 9% / 10% – A decent value play against a Panthers secondary allowing the 5th most DFS points to opposing WRs.

Suggested

• Randal Cobb (4x) – 6% / 8% – Cobb is shaping up to be a gametime decision on Sunday. Had a big week with 11 catches for 95 yards and a TD last week.
• Brandon Marshall (4x) – 6% / 8% – Has not had more that 4 receptions since week 5.
• Tavon Austin (4x) – 6% / 8% – Value play. Had double-digit catches and a TD last week.
• Demaryius Thomas (4x) – 6% / 8% – Double-digit targets in three straight games. The Raiders allow the 7th most DFS points to WRs.
• TY Hilton (4x) – 6% / 8% – He was a lineup killer last week. Only caught one ball for 20 yards.
• Jarvis Landry (4x) – 6% / 8% – The Jets give up the 2nd most DFS points to WRs. Landry should feast though he has only found the endzone one time in 2016.
• Corey Coleman (3x) – 5% / 7% – Has not played since week 2. He had two TD catches in that game though.
• Dontrelle Inman (3x) – 5% / 7% – The ultimate value play here at $3,100 on DK. He’s coming off a 4 catch, 72 yard effort.
• Emmanuel Sanders (3x) – 5% / 7% – Has four catches in each of the last three games. Has not scored a TD since week 4.
• Dez Bryant (3x) – 5% / 7% – I could be wrong but I’m guessing he goes underowned. Had 14 targets in his return to the field last Sunday.
• Jordy Nelson (3x) – 5% / 7% – Caught four of his nine targets for 94 yards and a TD last week.

Tight Ends

Highly Touted

• Antonio Gates (13x) – 21% / 16% – Gates has not topped 40 yards yet this year. His price reflects that production, or lack thereof. The Titans do give up the 9th most DFS points to TEs.
• Kyle Rudolph (12x) – 17% / 15% – The Lions give up the most DFS points to TEs. Rudolph has caught five balls in 3 of the last 4 games.

Recommended

• No Players

Suggested

• Greg Olsen (4x) – 5% / 6% – He’s having a great year though he’s coming off a game in which he caught one ball for 11 yards.
• Jack Doyle (4x) – 5% / 6% – If Dwayne Allen plays, Doyle’s value likely goes down.
• Dennis Pitta (4x) – 5% / 6% – Pitta has double-digit targets in back-to-back weeks. He has 38 catches for the year but has yet to find the endzone.
• Gary Barnidge (4x) – 5% / 6% – The Cowboys allow the 6th most DFS points to TEs. Barnidge will have rookie Cody Kessler throwing him the ball on Sunday.

Defense/Special Teams

Highly Touted

• Kansas City Chiefs (12x) – 48% / 33% – I guess the Chiefs are the play this week. They have posted double-digit points on DK in three straight games.

Recommended

• Minnesota Vikings (6x) – 13% / 10% – Fresh off getting toasted by Jay Cutler, the Vikes remain the highest priced defense on DK. Matthew Stafford can toast a defense himself so I’d have a hard time paying up for the Vikings this week.
• Green Bay Packers (5x) – 11% / 9% – The Packers get the beleaguered Colts offensive line this week. An opportunity for some sacks but also the potential for Andrew Luck to put up 30 points.

Suggested

• No Teams

Hope that you find the right combination to cash! Follow me on Twitter @mbutlerok.