NFL – Industry Expert Consensus – Week Five

We are glad you are joining us again this week. I hope that our Consensus has provided you with some parameters for building your lineup. We’ve proven in NBA and MLB that building a lineup strictly off the Consensus does not exactly prove profitable; however, it gives you an idea of who the experts think should perform and our projected ownership percentages help you determine who might be solid contrarian plays. Don’t forget to sign up for our Premium Content so you can get all that we have to offer here at DailyOverlay.

As a reminder, the number in the parenthesis is the number of experts that chose that player so you have more context regarding the gaps between players and the tiers.

Quarterbacks

Highly Touted

• Tom Brady (11x) – 19% Cash / 10% GPP – Brady is back! He’s healthy, rested and ready to deploy safely in all of your lineups. Can’t wait to see what his ownership percentages are this week.
• Brian Hoyer (10x) – 14% / 9% –  Hoyer did see his price go up after back-to-back 300-yard games. He gets a soft Indy defense and another chance to put up big numbers. Nice value play.
• Ben Roethlisberger (10x) – 14% / 9% – Ben bounced back in a big way by torching the Chiefs for five TDs. He’ll take on a Jets defense that has given up the 5th most DFS points to QBs.
• Ryan Fitzpatrick (7x) – 6% / 7% – He’s cheap. That’s about all you can say. Has thrown 9 picks in the last two games! Might be a nice contrarian option?

Recommended

• Derek Carr (6x) – 5% / 6% – Should be a shootout in this game. Carr has produced 23+ points on DK in three of four weeks so far.
• Aaron Rodgers (5x) – 4% / 5% – The highest priced QB on the board but that’s the usual. Another possible shootout between he and Eli.
• Philip Rivers (5x) – 4% / 5% – All the QBs in this category are playing one another. Rivers has proven he’s still a top DFS QB this year. The Raiders have given up the 3rd most points to QBs.
• Eli Manning (5x) – 4% / 5% – Eli had a rough week against a stingey Vikings defense last week. Shootout time in Green Bay.

Suggested

• Andrew Luck (4x) – 3% / 4% – After a stellar week one, he’s been kind of ho-hum since. Chicago’s secondary is not very good though so expect a decent showing.
• Ryan Tannehill (3x) – 3% / 4% – Coming off a bad week. The experts must like the Fins this week because a couple of his receivers show up too.
• Paxton Lynch (3x) – 3% / 4% – Could you say the experts really picked the Broncos QB six times? Lynch and Siemian were both picked 3x so pay attention to who is playing. A good opportunity for Lynch to seize the job against a bad Falcons defense.
• Trevor Siemian (3x) – 3% / 4% – Will he play? Has an opportunity to put up big numbers if he does.
• Carson Wentz (3x) – 3% / 4% – Wentz is coming off a bye week. He has seen his price increase from the $5K QB minimum to a top-10 priced QB.

Running Backs

Highly Touted

• Jordan Howard (16x) – 60% / 33% – Topped the 100-yard mark last week. Has yet to find the endzone in his rookie season.
• Jerick McKinnon (14x) – 58% / 32% – Great value GPP play here. Carried the ball 18 times last week for 85 yards and a touchdown.
• Terrance West (9x) – 31% / 17% – With Forsett gone, West is the man. Should receive 20+ touches each week and has potential to put up a large number.
• Le’Veon Bell (8x) – 26% / 16% – Didn’t take long for Bell to get back in the Highly Touted category. Went off for 144 yards on only 18 carries in his first game back.
• DeMarco Murray (8x) – 26% / 16% – Murray seems to have gotten back in a groove now that he’s out of Chip Kelly’s offense. Topped the 20 carry mark last week and scored twice.
• Melvin Gordon (7x) – 18% / 13% – He continues to find the endzone. Only has 71 rushing yards combined the last two weeks but has scored three times.
• DeAndre Washington (7x) – 18% / 13% – Who will get the bulk of Latavius Murray’s carries. Will be tough for me to play either Washington or Richard without knowing.

Recommended

• CJ Anderson (6x) – 9% / 9% – Remember when he was the top fantasy RB going into last year? That seems like forever ago. However, if Lynch starts, I’d expect him to tote the rock plenty of times.
• Devonta Freeman (6x) – 9% / 9% – Freeman’s price is suppressed a bit this week due to facing Denver. Has yet to get more than 17 carries in a game.

Suggested

• LeSean McCoy (4x) – 5% / 6% – Similar to DeMarco Murray, LeSean provides a big time pass catching threat. He found the endzone via the air last Sunday.
• LeGarrette Blount (3x) – 4% / 5% – Check the injury report prior to deploying him. Should he play, he’ll have a nice matchup against the Browns.
• Todd Gurley (3x) – 4% / 5% – Gurley doesn’t have any room to run and its shown in his numbers. He did catch five balls for 49 yards last week.
• Eddy Lacy (3x) – 4% / 5% – Topped the 100-yard mark his last time out. The Giants don’t give up a ton of DFS points to RBs though.
• Jalen Richard (3x) – 4% / 5% – Same as Washington above. When they establish who will get the carries, it will be easier to pick one.

Wide Receivers

Highly Touted

• Antonio Brown (12x) – 42% / 22% – Only caught four balls last week but two of them were for touchdowns.
• Brandon Marshall (10x) – 31% / 17% – Could be playing from behind. Has double-digit targets in each of the last two games.
• Odell Beckham, Jr. (10x) – 31% / 17% – Can he keep his head on straight? If so, he has a favorable matchup in a potential shootout game.
• Julian Edelman (9x) – 23% / 13% – With Brady back, his value skyrockets. Keep an eye on his injury status.
• Quincy Enunwa (8x) – 14% / 12% – A nice value play. Has at least four catches in all four games this year.
• Jarvis Landry (7x) – 12% / 11% – Double-digit targets every week and has already topped the 100-yard mark twice.
• Robert Woods (7x) – 12% / 11% – I love Woods this week. Super cheap and has established himself as Tyrod’s favorite target.
• Steve Smith, Sr. (7x) – 12% / 11% – Eight catches and eleven targets in each of the past two games. Found the endzone for the first time last week.

Recommended

• Jordy Nelson (6x) – 11% / 10% – Stud! Has scored in each of the three games this season.
• Tyrell Williams (5x) – 10% / 9% – Everyone was all over him last week and he somewhat disappointed. The Raiders have given up the most DFS points to wideouts.
• TY Hilton (5x) – 10% / 9% – Double-digit targets each week and has found the endzone in each of the last two games.
• Amari Cooper (5x) – 10% / 9% – A shootout is brewing in this one (I’ve only mentioned that about 10 times already). Has not had a breakout game yet so he’s due for one.
• Sammie Coates (5x) – 10% / 9% – Such a stud in college. Has begun to show some of that promise this season.
• Eddie Royal (5x) – 10% / 9% – Royal has back-to-back good weeks since Hoyer took over. Watch his injury status prior to playing him.

Suggested

• AJ Green (4x) – 8% / 8% – He’s a monster! Caught 10 balls for 173 yards and a touchdown last week. Could be a sneaky shootout in Dallas.
• Jordan Matthews (4x) – 8% / 8% – He struggled against the Steelers his last time out.
• DeVante Parker (4x) – 8% / 8% – Had a great first week but has seen his numbers drop off since.
• Brice Butler (3x) – 5% / 7% – If Dez plays, Butler is a definite sit. If not, he could provide solid production for very cheap.
• Cole Beasley (3x) – 5% / 7% – Beasley has found his way in the Consensus again this week. Should catch a lot of balls which is nice in the PPR DFS format.
• Emmanuel Sanders (3x) – 5% / 7% – Has been targeted 13 times in each of the last two games. If Siemian starts, he should have another solid week.

Tight Ends

Highly Touted

• Zach Ertz (18x) – 42% / 22% – 18 times!!! Holy smokes the experts love Ertz this week. The Lions have struggled against the TE position.
• Zach Miller (9x) – 12% / 9% – Caught all three balls thrown his way, including a touchdown, last week.
• Rob Gronkowski (8x) – 11% / 9% – Gronk with Brady is about as money as it gets. Hasn’t done much since coming back from the injury though.
• Hunter Henry (8x) – 11% / 9% – If Gates does not play, Henry should be a nice value target.
• Kyle Rudolph (7x) – 10% / 9% – Has scored in each of the last three games. Has also been targeted 17 times in the last two games.

Recommended

• No Players

Suggested

• No Players

Defense/Special Teams

Highly Touted

• Minnesota Vikings (12x) – 28% / 12% – The Vikings have been straight up nasty this season.
• Philadelphia Eagles (7x) – 15% / 9% – Somewhat of a risky play. You never know which Matt Stafford that you will get.

Recommended

• New England Patriots (6x) – 14% / 9% – The Patriots defense has been great so far. They face the Browns on Sunday with a chance to have another good one.

Suggested

• Chicago Bears (4x) – 9% / 8% – Should be an opportunity to pick up some sacks facing off against the Colts paltry O-line.
• Pittsburgh Steelers (4x) – 9% / 8% – Fitzpatrick has thrown 9 picks in the last two games. The Steelers are coming off a dominant performance against the Chiefs.
• Denver Broncos (4x) – 9% / 8% – The high-flying Falcons come to town. I think the Donkeys are safe to deploy no matter who they are playing.
• Los Angeles Rams (4x) – 9% / 8% – The next two picks are facing one another. The Rams have played fairly solid defense and Tyrod Taylor sometimes forgets what jersey he’s wearing.
• Buffalo Bills (4x) – 9% / 8% – Facing the Rams. Throwing a defense out there against the Rams is never a too risky play.
• Miami Dolphins (3x) – 5% / 5% – I’ve been saying this for weeks…Marcus Mariota is going to go off at some point. Should be a really sloppy field after Hurrican Matthew gets done rolling through.
• Oakland Raiders (3x) – 5% / 5% – Not sure I’d play the Raiders. That game should provide plenty of points.

Hope that you find the right combination to cash! Follow me on twitter @mbutlerok.